OT: Official BWI Sports Gambling Thread

NoBareFeet

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Hmm, you should read my post above before you bet the baylor over. Risky.

Also, may want to check the status of tagovailoa for Maryland.
I'm aware Taulia may not play, and I don't think it matters. I like what I've seen out of the Maryland backup, and I don't think NW is good enough to keep this within 2 TDs.

And Kansas is in shootouts every week. Baylor certainly can score. Maybe the wind is keeping the o/u number down, because I thought it would be a good bit higher than this.

Locks!
 
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Grant Green

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I'm aware Taulia may not play, and I don't think it matters. I like what I've seen out of the Maryland backup, and I don't think NW is good enough to keep this within 2 TDs.
Edwards was 0/3 passing last week. Yes, he had 53 yards rushing on 5 carries, but one rush was for 31 yards. I would be hoping that Tago can go.
 

NoBareFeet

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Edwards was 0/3 passing last week. Yes, he had 53 yards rushing on 5 carries, but one rush was for 31 yards. I would be hoping that Tago can go.
He looked good in the Michigan game. I actually LOVE this pick. Think the line would have been much higher if Taulia was 100%.

Having said all that, based on how things have been going, probably a loser!
 

Grant Green

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FYI, wind this week.

Waco (Baylor) - 20+mph
Stillwater (Ok St)-20+
Columbia (Missou) -15-25mph
San Marcos, Tx (Tx St) 15-25mph
Ft Worth (TCU) - 20+mph
Las Cruces (NMST) - 20+

Look for some unders and be cautious betting overs.
These games went 3-2 to the under. Caveat - If you waited until the last minute and got Baylor U57.5, you would have lost and this would be 2-3. It was around 58.5 at the time of this posting so that is the number I'm counting. SJST at NMST was canceled.
 

NoBareFeet

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We are witnessing a truly amazing run of picks. ANOTHER 0-5 week, and 4-16 for the season. I challenge you to find a more consistent college football prognosticator in the country. If you haven't been fading these picks, you are missing out.

Believe it or not (and you probably don't), I had a great record last year picking college games and made some good money. Maybe things will turn. I'm on a mission to get this thing back to .500 by the end of the season. This week's picks:

MARYLAND -13.5 over Northwestern L
Duke +9 over MIAMI W
PENN STATE -3.5 over Minnesota (sorry) W
Purdue +2.5 over WISCONSIN L
Kansas/BAYLOR over 58.5 L
2-3 week. On fire! I actually won the Kansas/Baylor over pick because when I bet it was at 56.5. But I guess it was at 58.5 when I put it here, so I'll count it as a loss. 6-19 for the year! This week's sure winners:

Arkansas -3.5 over AUBURN
Illinois/NEBRASKA under 50.5
Kentucky +11.5 over TENNESSEE
Notre Dame +1.5 over SYRACUSE
Northwestern +10.5 over IOWA
 

CDLionFL

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Trying to keep the momentum going....

Wazzu +7 (W)
LA Tech team total over 31 1/2 (W)
Miami (OH)-Houston-TCU-Ohio State ML parlay +127 (W)
Arkansas -3 (W)
Syracuse even (L)
Oklahoma ML (W)
Penn State ML (L)
Tulsa +1 (L)
Cincinnati +1 1/2 (L)
Wake -3 (woof)
Wake team total over 35 (L)
South Carolina ML (L)
UNC -3 (W)
USC team total over 44 1/2 (W)

Got dumptrucked in that 3:30 window. That undid 2 weeks of profits. Sigh. 7-7 overall but had raised the wager on the 3:30 window so that's a losing day.
 
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Grant Green

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2-3 week. On fire! I actually won the Kansas/Baylor over pick because when I bet it was at 56.5. But I guess it was at 58.5 when I put it here, so I'll count it as a loss. 6-19 for the year! This week's sure winners:

Arkansas -3.5 over AUBURN
Illinois/NEBRASKA under 50.5
Kentucky +11.5 over TENNESSEE
Notre Dame +1.5 over SYRACUSE
Northwestern +10.5 over IOWA
Should consider just going ML on ND - or even a split of ML and spread.
 

Grant Green

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Trying to keep the momentum going....

Wazzu +7 (W)
Nice! Got me some Wazzu at +7.5 as soon as the line came out. You must have been sweating the push in the last few minutes (if you were awake).
My other opening bets were Louisville +4 and UAB -5.
My numbers show Miami-OH as undervalued and I grabbed -8.
Also think TAM is due for a home win and Ole Miss is getting tired. Lane Kiffin's ATS record in the 1st half is amongst the best and his ATS record in 2nd half amongst the worst.
 

CDLionFL

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Nice! Got me some Wazzu at +7.5 as soon as the line came out. You must have been sweating the push in the last few minutes (if you were awake).
My other opening bets were Louisville +4 and UAB -5.
My numbers show Miami-OH as undervalued and I grabbed -8.
Also think TAM is due for a home win and Ole Miss is getting tired. Lane Kiffin's ATS record in the 1st half is amongst the best and his ATS record in 2nd half amongst the worst.
The way Wazzu was playing on offense, I was rooting for the push because I didn't think they'd do enough to get the game tied or even cut into that 7-point lead. Was really sweating La Tech team total over 31 1/2 tonight and was begging for it to go to OT. Let's hope these 2 games are a nice preview of a big day Saturday.
 
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Grant Green

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The dead cat bounce is 5-1 this season - Wisconsin, Charlotte, ASU, GATech, Colorado. Only Nebraska lost.

Can you bet Auburn at Miss St?
 
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CDLionFL

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The dead cat bounce is 5-1 this season - Wisconsin, Charlotte, ASU, GATech, Colorado. Only Nebraska lost.

Can you bet Auburn at Miss St?
I'm seeing Miss State -13 1/2. Add to the intrigue that the MSU AD just resigned to take the AD job at Auburn. Just with the trends of other teams bouncing back the following week, I'd lean away from picking this game.
 

Grant Green

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We have wind!
Champaign, West Lafayette, South Bend and Evanston all with predicted wind of 20-30 mph and some showers.
This is prime under territory. If you don't subscribe to this theory (you should), at very least be cautious betting overs for these games.

Wisconsin, and Missou all have potential for 15+mph. Not quite as good as 20+, but also worth consideration.
 
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Grant Green

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What's up from Vegas! Westgate sportsbook all weekend for me!

Go wind and unders!
 

CDLionFL

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Don’t forget Bloomington too! IU putting out advisories to not leave your tailgate tents unattended. Might be similar to the winds I felt there at the ‘18 game.
 

VaDave4PSU

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What's up from Vegas! Westgate sportsbook all weekend for me!

Go wind and unders!

2 solid walls of slow moving rain. Everything from the middle of the country to the appy mtns should be soaked or getting wet by the time the games kick and rolling through the early evening slate. That's for sure.
 

CDLionFL

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After last week's momentum-killing picks, here's how we're getting back on the horse (applicable since it's Breeders Cup weekend...and I'm stuck working in Mexico so I can't bet it):

Avs-Duke-Washington ML parlay +170 (W)
NC-UVA under 60 1/2 (W)
TCU-Illinois-Boise-Utah-Miss State ML parlay +160 (L)
Oklahoma -3 (L)
PSU-Indiana under 51 (L)
Oregon -31 1/2 (W)
Tennessee +9 (L)
Tennessee ML (L)
Tennessee-Georgia over 65 (L)
Liberty +14 1/2 (W)
K State +2 1/2 (L)
Houston-SMU over 65 1/2 (W...140 total points!!!!)
LSU +13 1/2 (W)
Michigan -26 (W)
JMU +7 (L)
Clemson -4 (L)
Wake -3 (L)
Tennessee team total over 27 1/2 (L)
Georgia team total over 37 1/2 (L)

7-12...that's what I get for betting a heavy card on a weekend when I can't pay attention the way I want to. Damn work always cutting into profits. Putting so many eggs in Tennessee-Georgia being a high-scoring affair really burned me.
 
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Erial_Lion

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You weren't disappointed. What a rocketship on that stretch run.
Yea, it was pretty incredible. Probably the best horse of my lifetime, but most will never really get to appreciate or follow him, and he's likely done after 6 career races. People are talking about him in the same class with Secretariat.
 

CDLionFL

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It's unfortunate that Flightline had the injury that robbed it of a 3-year-old season. You can't really compare what Secretariat did in a 5-week span but the runs Flightline had at the Pacific Classic and then today certainly put it in that class. His stud fee is going to be through the roof and it's tough to argue that he has much left to accomplish on the racetrack.
 

Grant Green

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We have wind!
Champaign, West Lafayette, South Bend and Evanston all with predicted wind of 20-30 mph and some showers.
This is prime under territory. If you don't subscribe to this theory (you should), at very least be cautious betting overs for these games.

Wisconsin, and Missou all have potential for 15+mph. Not quite as good as 20+, but also worth consideration.
6-0 on wind unders. A great start to the day at the westgate super book yesterday. And dead cat bounce auburn to boot.
 
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Erial_Lion

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Not sure how @Grant Green would quantify the "dead cat" bounce for Hartford tomorrow night as their head coach resigned on the eve of the season...but either way, I'm on Sacred Heart at a pick.

This one could go in my CLV Hall of Fame if the line closes anywhere near where it's at right now.
 

Erial_Lion

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I hope that Sacred Heart number closed at 6 1/2 for ya.
I played it at a pick...and considered coming back on Hartford when I saw it at 8.5 this afternoon, but just stuck with my Sacred Heart position. I don't believe in middling, but actually thought that 8.5 held some level of value.
 
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Grant Green

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Not sure how @Grant Green would quantify the "dead cat" bounce for Hartford tomorrow night as their head coach resigned on the eve of the season...but either way, I'm on Sacred Heart at a pick.

Psychologically, seems more advantageous when the team feels like they got the coach fired by crappy play. Not sure what happened in this situation. This early in the season would seem to be more of a distraction to a team, which I'm guessing is why the line moved that much.
Hope opening day went well for you!
 

Grant Green

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Your dead cat bounce of the week is USF, who fired Jeff Scott this week.
I actually like them regardless at +17.5. Some favorable stat discrepancies.

Sad to say, no wind this week.
 
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CDLionFL

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I wouldn't bet USF with your money. But I'd bet these college football games with mine....this week's menu:

Buffalo-CMU over 53 1/2 (W)
Cincinnati ML -205 (W)
Fresno State -10 1/2 live +135 (L)
Duke -10 (W)
Oklahoma team total over 38 1/2 (L)
Tennessee team total over 38 (W)
LSU ML -225 (W)
Houston team total over 38 1/2 (W)
Ole Miss +10 1/2 (W)
Tulane -1 (L)
Oklahoma State +2 1/2 (W)
Live bet Penn State -19 1/2 (W)
Oregon team total over 43 (L)
TCU +7 1/2 (W)
TCU ML (W)
Baylor -2 1/2 (L)

11-5...much better...that +230 on TCU was a nice little score.
 
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Grant Green

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I wouldn't bet USF with your money. But I'd bet these college football games with mine....this week's menu:

Buffalo-CMU over 53 1/2 (W)
Cincinnati ML -205
Why not? Cinci has an equal (or worse depending on the line you got) ATS record than USF this year. Cinci only beat USF by 4 points.
 

Grant Green

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Your dead cat bounce of the week is USF, who fired Jeff Scott this week.
I actually like them regardless at +17.5. Some favorable stat discrepancies.

Sad to say, no wind this week.
Ouch. Dead cat bounce loses on a failed 2pt conversion after usf qb knocked out. Extra pt would have covered. Dcb falls to 6-2 on the season.
 
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Auxgym

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I wouldn't bet USF with your money. But I'd bet these college football games with mine....this week's menu:

Buffalo-CMU over 53 1/2 (W)
Cincinnati ML -205 (W)
Fresno State -10 1/2 live +135 (L)
Duke -10 (W)
Oklahoma team total over 38 1/2 (L)
Tennessee team total over 38 (W)
LSU ML -225 (W)
Houston team total over 38 1/2 (W)
Ole Miss +10 1/2 (W)
Tulane -1 (L)
Oklahoma State +2 1/2 (W)
Live bet Penn State -19 1/2 (W)
Oregon team total over 43 (L)
TCU +7 1/2 (W)
TCU ML (W)
Baylor -2 1/2 (L)

11-5...much better...that +230 on TCU was a nice little score.
Hell I just try to pick one winner.......but your carpet bombing method is certainly entertaining!
 

CDLionFL

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Hell I just try to pick one winner.......but your carpet bombing method is certainly entertaining!
There is a lot of FOMO involved because I go through all the lines on Monday evening/Tuesday afternoon and pick out ones to keep an eye on. Then once I get to Saturday, I don't want to bypass one that I had a liking and watch it win. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. One that I bypassed yesterday was Louisville and it was a good move. It's difficult to justify picking teams that lost to Boston College (a corollary of the 'don't bet on bad teams rule).
 
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Grant Green

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Only 1 win away from hitting PSU season win O8.5 +110 (yes, plus money)! This was not a fanboy bet. I really liked it with a 6th year senior QB and OC in his 2nd season. Thought PSU was a bit underrated coming into this season.

WKY looking very tempting vs an Auburn team looking ahead to Bama. Opened at +7 and bet down to +5.5 early.

@wbcbus hope you are doing better. we need you back in this thread.
 
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wbcbus

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Only 1 win away from hitting PSU season win O8.5 +110 (yes, plus money)! This was not a fanboy bet. I really liked it with a 6th year senior QB and OC in his 2nd season. Thought PSU was a bit underrated coming into this season.

WKY looking very tempting vs an Auburn team looking ahead to Bama. Opened at +7 and bet down to +5.5 early.

@wbcbus hope you are doing better. we need you back in this thread.

Thank you Grant, I'm doing well, much better than I would have expected. I'll get back in on the thread this week. It's been a good couple weeks for me, but I keep giving some back in the late games (9 pm EST on). I think it's because I lower the bar for what I'm willing to bet in those late games just because I want to still have action.

I'm also known to bet every single match in the World Cup.
 

Grant Green

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Thank you Grant, I'm doing well, much better than I would have expected. I'll get back in on the thread this week. It's been a good couple weeks for me, but I keep giving some back in the late games (9 pm EST on). I think it's because I lower the bar for what I'm willing to bet in those late games just because I want to still have action.

I'm also known to bet every single match in the World Cup.
@Erial_Lion must have some WC leans.
 

wbcbus

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Ok, I've got a lot, let's win some money:

Liberty -9.5
Baylor +2.5
Illinois +17.5
WVU +8.5
BC +20.5
Kentucky +22.5
Clemson -18.5
Maryland +26.5
Texas -9.5
Temple +16.5
Minnesota -2.5
Tennessee -21.5
Arkansas +2.5
Oklahoma -6.5
UCLA +2.5
Wake Forest -9.5
Oregon +2.5
 
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CDLionFL

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Might be a dark Saturday for yours truly as the offshore site I have used for 24 years crashed last nite (or got seized, who knows) and hasn’t come back online yet. No updates, nothing, and customer service e-mails got bounced back. Kinda sucks being in a state that can’t figure out sports gambling.
 

Grant Green

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Might be a dark Saturday for yours truly as the offshore site I have used for 24 years crashed last nite (or got seized, who knows) and hasn’t come back online yet. No updates, nothing, and customer service e-mails got bounced back. Kinda sucks being in a state that can’t figure out sports gambling.
What site?
 

Grant Green

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Ok, I've got a lot, let's win some money:

Liberty -9.5
Baylor +2.5
Illinois +17.5
WVU +8.5
BC +20.5
Kentucky +22.5
Clemson -18.5
Maryland +26.5
Texas -9.5
Temple +16.5
Minnesota -2.5
Tennessee -21.5
Arkansas +2.5
Oklahoma -6.5
UCLA +2.5
Wake Forest -9.5
Oregon +2.5
With you on Clemson, baylor, bc, ark and ucla. Against you on none.
Thinking about temple and Illinois.
 
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