www.visualcapitalist.com
Is it dropping because pandemic related log jams are being eliminated? Or is it because we are in a recession and the log jams are gone because of demand drop?View attachment 302197
Charted: The Dipping Cost of Shipping
After a dramatic spike during the pandemic, shipping costs have now fallen back to Earth. What does that mean for shippers and the economy?
Now we need a lumber update from @PooPopsBaldHead
Article just doesn't say, and i have zero knowledge of the why. Just thought it was interesting, and nice to see things getting closer to pre-pandemic.
We ain't nowhere near sniffin' pre-pandemic on anything because that would be the economy we HAD pre-pandemic which was firing on all cylinders.
Respectfully, the article and graph that I shared rebuts your assertion that we aren't "sniffin' pre-pandemic on anything"?
I bet we, as consumers will see a lag behind the kind of shipping described above. At a minimum, we won't see it all until in stock items that arrived under higher costs are consumed and paid for.
Compared to the way things were, this is a drop in the bucket and nothing to write home about. People are still having to take out loans to buy eggs and gas.
Pottery Barn? Nice humble brag**
It would appear the lumber futures market has at least put in a tactical bottom, if not a permanent one back in December. Its up 27% since then.View attachment 302197
Charted: The Dipping Cost of Shipping
After a dramatic spike during the pandemic, shipping costs have now fallen back to Earth. What does that mean for shippers and the economy?
Now we need a lumber update from @PooPopsBaldHead
FBX is the standard for this kind of data. Per a previous post, inventory bought and shipped at prior rates will have to exit the system. I suspect the length of time that takes varies by industry. Based on lack of inventory on many things, I hope it doesn't take too long to find its way into our pockets on goods. I have no idea how/if international container shipping correlates in any way to the shipping you are describing that you do. I stand by my original post, and point, that container shipping costs dropping to near pre-pandemic levels is good.
Grocery stores have the sanitizer dispenser when you walk in. Now they need a KY dispenser at the checkout.
Heres one of my favorite grocery inflation trackers. IRI collects all the data from grocery scanners after coupons, discounts, etc and publishes real grocery inflation . In the images below anything over 100 is year over year inflation. These are the most recent two weeks of data and the same weeks from a year ago. You can see meat and seafood are basically done, but refrigerated (eggs?), frozen, beverages, and general food are the problems now.
The problem with only looking at that data right now is by all accounts we had a lot more inflationn in the first half of 2022 than the 2nd. We've had virtually no inflation over the last six months. Should we still be working to lower inflation at this point?
Volume has dropped pretty significantly for the last few months compared to 2021 and early 2022. December looked okay for my company but not crazy like the beginning of 2022. It looks like numbers are coming down from a drayage perspective. Hopefully they stabilize instead of dropping off a cliff. I’m new to drayage but I know that fees due to bottlenecks of containers have driven up prices the last couple of years. If the bottlenecks are finally correcting it could cause rates to drop due to decreased fees and truckers having fewer options.
View attachment 302197
Charted: The Dipping Cost of Shipping
After a dramatic spike during the pandemic, shipping costs have now fallen back to Earth. What does that mean for shippers and the economy?
Now we need a lumber update from @PooPopsBaldHead
Little-to-no increase in inflation does not mean no inflation. You leftists love to twist facts like that. Inflation is high. Eventually it goes down when people stop buying. They have stopped buying because they can longer longer afford to spend. The Biden admin & Democrats have done that to us. They have put us in the position where the Fed has had to jack up interests rates faster than any other time in out history, as far as I know.
Hate to break it to you and everyone else, it if you’ve paid tight attention to what’s happening at the ground level in both the seafood fleets on both sides of the country AND the cattle farmers AND the chicken farmers you will realize that little dip/leveling off is just the calm before the epic storm this coming summer. There’s not gonna be cattle to eat this summer - you’re eating what’s been sold off all across the country right now and for the next couple months, then it’s all gone. We are looking at 2-2.5 years before we come close to recovering there if we don’t have massive droughts and feed prices can come down - which will double AGAIN this coming spring and further.
We were probably headed for a recession in 2020 anyway. We were due for one, honestly. It had been over a decade.
I believe you for one reason. You did not type “death nail “. Possibly an SPS first. Hope I don’t come across as a pre-Madonna
Ok, what are you saying the inflation rate has been over the last 6 months?
Here's the chart. UN BE Leivable. This is what happens when the Gov't prints and spends too much money all in the name of "Heppin the Poor" yet backfires and crushes the Poor with the hidden tax known as inflation. Was at 1.4% in 2020 , was at 2% 4 years prior then spiked to 7% in 2021 then 6.5% in 2022.
www.usinflationcalculator.com
The problem is when you have an American Company importing their product manufactured in China that uses Slave labor like iPhone and NIKE.
The bird flu issue isn’t some fakery. It’s a real problem and it’s causing a lot of issues. At some point it will run its course but who knows how long that will be. Eggs and meat will continue to be high for some time.
The question was inflation over the last 6 months. If you scroll down your link you get to a table that breaks it down by month over 2022. It comes out to an annualized rate of 1.8% over the last 6 months. 1.8%!Here's the chart. UN BE Leivable. This is what happens when the Gov't prints and spends too much money all in the name of "Heppin the Poor" yet backfires and crushes the Poor with the hidden tax known as inflation. Was at 1.4% in 2020 , was at 2% 4 years prior then spiked to 7% in 2021 then 6.5% in 2022.
Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024
The annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.9% for the 12 months ending July, compared to the previous rate increase of 3%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on August 14, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on September 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET...
That's not that low compared to recently. And it really needs to stay that low for people to be able to get some breathing room back without the ability to negotiate >5% raises. If somebody has been getting steady 3% raises since 2020 and that continues into the future, it will still take them another 7-8 years to get back to where they were in 2020 in real earning power, even if inflation stays at 2%.
It has been trending down the last 6 months but inflation numbers are horrible compared to 2020 still. Never have gov't policies wrecked our economy this fast to this degree and they KNEW inflation was going to be the result which impacts the poorest the worst. Here's Jan thru Dec 2022 inflation numbers. Your "1.8%" means absolute Dick. The final columns are the yearly averages.
2022 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
2020 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
2021 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.7 |
