OT: Shipping Cost Good News

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Drebin

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Aug 22, 2012
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The problem with only looking at that data right now is by all accounts we had a lot more inflationn in the first half of 2022 than the 2nd. We've had virtually no inflation over the last six months. Should we still be working to lower inflation at this point?
Of course there's no inflation. That $5 carton of eggs is just a figment of your imagination.
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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That's not that low compared to recently. And it really needs to stay that low for people to be able to get some breathing room back without the ability to negotiate >5% raises. If somebody has been getting steady 3% raises since 2020 and that continues into the future, it will still take them another 7-8 years to get back to where they were in 2020 in real earning power, even if inflation stays at 2%.

The question is if we should continue slowing down the economy via high interest rates. With inflation under 2%, that should be a pretty clear "no", right?
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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It has been trending down the last 6 months but inflation numbers are horrible compared to 2020 still. Never have gov't policies wrecked our economy this fast to this degree and they KNEW inflation was going to be the result which impacts the poorest the worst. Here's Jan thru Dec 2022 inflation numbers. Your "1.8%" means absolute Dick. The final columns are the yearly averages.
2022
7.5​
7.9​
8.5​
8.3​
8.6​
9.1​
8.5​
8.3​
8.2​
7.7​
7.1​
6.5​
8.0​

Compare to 2020:
2020
2.5​
2.3​
1.5​
0.3​
0.1​
0.6​
1.0​
1.3​
1.4​
1.2​
1.2​
1.4​
1.2​

Check out what started happening in 2021:
2021
1.4​
1.7​
2.6​
4.2​
5.0​
5.4​
5.4​
5.3​
5.4​
6.2​
6.8​
7.0​
4.7​
The only govt policy that drove inflation was Russia's policy of invading Ukraine.

You saying a current inflation rate of 1.8% means "dick" is only making you look like a fool.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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The only govt policy that drove inflation was Russia's policy of invading Ukraine.

This might be the most ridiculous thing you've ever said? The Federal government dropped a **** ton of money into the economy and the Fed didn't counteract it. There were supply issues related to COVID and Ukraine that contributed to price fluctuations, but it was largely the federal and state government that broke the economy, then dumped a **** ton of money into while production was down.
 
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Cantdoitsal

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Sep 26, 2022
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The problem with only looking at that data right now is by all accounts we had a lot more inflationn in the first half of 2022 than the 2nd. We've had virtually no inflation over the last six months. Should we still be working to lower inflation at this point?
This comment made me think of Gov't Bureaucrats who ask for $6B in 2023 for their program when he / she spent $5B in 2022 but is offered $5.5B and calls that a draconian spending cut.
 

TrueMaroonGrind

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Jan 6, 2017
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Of course there's no inflation. That $5 carton of eggs is just a figment of your imagination.
I paid $7. Where did you find $5? Eggs are an anomaly due to the bird flu. Sure some is due to inflation, but not most of that increase. There are plenty of other things to point to regarding inflation without using egg price increases that are largely due to another issue.
 
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LordMcBuckethead

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Sep 30, 2022
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Is it dropping because pandemic related log jams are being eliminated? Or is it because we are in a recession and the log jams are gone because of demand drop?
As with all things, these items do not happen in a vacuum and they are almost never impacted by just one thing, but a sequence of events.

I would imagine it has to do with a few things. Log Jam being cleared, at the same time demand dropping, and companies diversifying where they secure items.
 

PapaDawg

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Nov 19, 2014
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The only govt policy that drove inflation was Russia's policy of invading Ukraine.

You saying a current inflation rate of 1.8% means "dick" is only making you look like a fool.

The guvment is issuing “I” bonds at 6.89%. So inflation is at least that high.
 
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Cantdoitsal

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Sep 26, 2022
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The only govt policy that drove inflation was Russia's policy of invading Ukraine.

You saying a current inflation rate of 1.8% means "dick" is only making you look like a fool.
Inflation and gas prices were on the rise long before Russia's Invasion. You not understanding excessive government spending doesn't cause inflation makes YOU look like a fool. Even Democrats know this. See this and educate yourself:

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D., S.C.) on Thursday said congressional Democrats knew when they signed off on President Joe Biden's multitrillion-dollar legislative plans that the laws would lead to increased inflation.


 

LordMcBuckethead

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2022
1,077
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It has been trending down the last 6 months but inflation numbers are horrible compared to 2020 still. Never have gov't policies wrecked our economy this fast to this degree and they KNEW inflation was going to be the result which impacts the poorest the worst. Here's Jan thru Dec 2022 inflation numbers. Your "1.8%" means absolute Dick. The final columns are the yearly averages.
2022
7.5​
7.9​
8.5​
8.3​
8.6​
9.1​
8.5​
8.3​
8.2​
7.7​
7.1​
6.5​
8.0​

Compare to 2020:
2020
2.5​
2.3​
1.5​
0.3​
0.1​
0.6​
1.0​
1.3​
1.4​
1.2​
1.2​
1.4​
1.2​

Check out what started happening in 2021:
2021
1.4​
1.7​
2.6​
4.2​
5.0​
5.4​
5.4​
5.3​
5.4​
6.2​
6.8​
7.0​
4.7​

I wouldn't say government policies. Spending needed to happen, passed by democrats and signed by President even though he could have vetoed it and killed it. He knew, just like we all did at the time, letting the economy totally destroy itself in 2020 was not an option.

That spending led to inflation, because there is zero ways that it couldn't, and now we are seeing the effects of that. Now, the entire world is seeing inflation based on ours and their actions during 2020, and we will feel the effects of that in the short to mid term starting January 2022-2024. Small price to pay for the entire world economy not collapsing in 2020. We are in a position now to control the drop in the economy while we try to get the rate of inflation under control through interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. Both will be painful, but remember, less painful that a total global collapse.

People after the fact are quick to forget the scenarios playing across the planet at the time the spending was approved. All of the unintended consequences pale in comparison to the worldwide collapse of the entire economy and people starving in the streets. In my opinion, the governments of the world did exactly what needed to be done, even with the mistakes made. The world, for the most part, made it through a very tough situation and it will take years to adjust back to something of a normal situation. By the unintended consequences I am referencing the inflation, pushing demand when supply was low, shipping issues, production issues, etc. All had to happen for various reasons, and all are less terrible in the short and long term than it would have been if the spending wasn't approved, in my opinion. Just think about it.... are we in "that" terrible of a position today? Not really. Even when the market drops another 20% this year, still not in that bad of a position.

Just look around. The supply chain is getting back in line with demand. The inflation rate, although not good, is adjusting itself back down. Energy prices are much better right now than projected for this winter during last summer. All projections on growth are down, but with the interest rates and CPI adjusting down, the fed will be able to cut the rate of interest rate increases this year. All of this leads to an opportunity to invest at a discount and get some really solid returns in 2024.

I have invested money in the Nasdaq because I am going to ride the 20% increase next year. I am going to feel some pain this year probably, so I am holding another large chunk of money to get into the Nasdaq again for a large chunk around August this year.
 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
12,234
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Yes but the price of eggs wasn’t the result of a change in monetary policy.
Mostly not, no.

But inflation deniers tend to always be able to come up with some real world issue for whatever individual product (because there's pretty much always something that can be pointed to, whether it's the cause of a relative price change or not), and then just pretend that means they can ignore the overall price levels.
 

DesotoCountyDawg

Well-known member
Nov 16, 2005
22,110
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Mostly not, no.

But inflation deniers tend to always be able to come up with some real world issue for whatever individual product (because there's pretty much always something that can be pointed to, whether it's the cause of a relative price change or not), and then just pretend that means they can ignore the overall price levels.
I don’t disagree with that. I’m just saying eggs are not a great example.
 
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Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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This might be the most ridiculous thing you've ever said? The Federal government dropped a **** ton of money into the economy and the Fed didn't counteract it. There were supply issues related to COVID and Ukraine that contributed to price fluctuations, but it was largely the federal and state government that broke the economy, then dumped a **** ton of money into while production was down.
It's an oversimplification, sure. But it's in no way ridiculous. There's just no support for the "free money" narrative. It doesn't correlate to any of the data. It's just cranks that always say that, and can't let go of that narrative. They love that narrative because it justifies the policies they want (cut spending on the poor), and will never care about the facts.
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
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Mostly not, no.

But inflation deniers tend to always be able to come up with some real world issue for whatever individual product (because there's pretty much always something that can be pointed to, whether it's the cause of a relative price change or not), and then just pretend that means they can ignore the overall price levels.
To be fair, the inflation deniers have turned out to be right for 40 years now.
 

Cantdoitsal

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Sep 26, 2022
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Democrats always wanting "free" schit from other people instead of letting the private sector work things out without government interference, draconian reglulations and excessive spending / borrowing is the problem.
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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I wouldn't say government policies. Spending needed to happen, passed by democrats and signed by President even though he could have vetoed it and killed it. He knew, just like we all did at the time, letting the economy totally destroy itself in 2020 was not an option.

That spending led to inflation, because there is zero ways that it couldn't, and now we are seeing the effects of that. Now, the entire world is seeing inflation based on ours and their actions during 2020, and we will feel the effects of that in the short to mid term starting January 2022-2024. Small price to pay for the entire world economy not collapsing in 2020. We are in a position now to control the drop in the economy while we try to get the rate of inflation under control through interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. Both will be painful, but remember, less painful that a total global collapse.

People after the fact are quick to forget the scenarios playing across the planet at the time the spending was approved. All of the unintended consequences pale in comparison to the worldwide collapse of the entire economy and people starving in the streets. In my opinion, the governments of the world did exactly what needed to be done, even with the mistakes made. The world, for the most part, made it through a very tough situation and it will take years to adjust back to something of a normal situation. By the unintended consequences I am referencing the inflation, pushing demand when supply was low, shipping issues, production issues, etc. All had to happen for various reasons, and all are less terrible in the short and long term than it would have been if the spending wasn't approved, in my opinion. Just think about it.... are we in "that" terrible of a position today? Not really. Even when the market drops another 20% this year, still not in that bad of a position.

Just look around. The supply chain is getting back in line with demand. The inflation rate, although not good, is adjusting itself back down. Energy prices are much better right now than projected for this winter during last summer. All projections on growth are down, but with the interest rates and CPI adjusting down, the fed will be able to cut the rate of interest rate increases this year. All of this leads to an opportunity to invest at a discount and get some really solid returns in 2024.

I have invested money in the Nasdaq because I am going to ride the 20% increase next year. I am going to feel some pain this year probably, so I am holding another large chunk of money to get into the Nasdaq again for a large chunk around August this year.
It's not a given that the world will return to "normal". In fact, the stability we've had for decades is the outlier, not the norm.
 
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57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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Friendly reminder - “inflation” means prices are actively rising. That seems to be largely over. For all the talk of FED undercounting rates in 2021, they’re over counting it now. Which is why the markets have become more optimistic the last few months. They see a light at that the end of that tunnel.

While we’ve largely curbed inflation in North America - that’s not the case in the UK & Australia. Brexit is a part of that.

We get new PCE numbers on Friday. That’s the Fed’s gold standard.
 
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Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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Democrats always wanting "free" schit from other people instead of letting the private sector work things out without government interference is the problem.
The unregulated market profiteering is the problem. Markets are not some magical force that will give the best result by rule of nature.
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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Inflation and gas prices were on the rise long before Russia's Invasion. You not understanding excessive government spending doesn't cause inflation makes YOU look like a fool. Even Democrats know this. See this and educate yourself:

House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D., S.C.) on Thursday said congressional Democrats knew when they signed off on President Joe Biden's multitrillion-dollar legislative plans that the laws would lead to increased inflation.



Clyburn is at the rightmost edge of the Dem Party. Only a fool thinks what he says proves anything.
 

Cantdoitsal

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Sep 26, 2022
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The unregulated market profiteering is the problem. Markets are not some magical force that will give the best result by rule of nature.
Free Market American Capitialism that was allowed to happen based on our Constitution's Laws that protect individual property rights fueled an economic explosion that improved the human condition on a Global Scale the likes never dreamed of in World History.
 

Cantdoitsal

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Sep 26, 2022
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Clyburn is at the rightmost edge of the Dem Party. Only a fool thinks what he says proves anything.
You must be an elementary school teacher who promotes pronoun choices and Drag Queen Story Hour. Or maybe a government social worker. Or Maybe a Fed. Clyburn's name doesn't belong in the same sentence with the word "Right".
 

57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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Democrats always wanting "free" schit from other people instead of letting the private sector work things out without government interference, draconian reglulations and excessive spending / borrowing is the problem.
Yeah! I remember Joe Biden wanting to literally write his name on stimmy checks!
 
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Boom Boom

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Free Market American Capitialism that was allowed to happen based on our Constitution's Laws that protect individual property rights fueled an economic explosion that improved the human condition on a Global Scale the likes never dreamed of in World History.
It's a great thing. But it's not magic. Too much of a good thing can be bad, maybe very bad. The dose makes the poison is a saying that goes back to ancient Greece, people have known this for that long. Maybe you'll catch on soon.

Capitalism requires competition, for example. We don't have nearly as much of that anymore, because we took our eyes off the ball due to misguided simple-minded beliefs like yours (stoked by the very muti-national corps looking to avoid competiton). That lack of competition has allowed corps to profiteer in the name of inflation, and is much more of a cause of the inflation we saw than govt spending.

Also getting a kick from "our Constitution's Laws".
 

Cantdoitsal

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The globe hasn't been warming?
Al Gore said in '98 the polar ice caps would be gone in 2013. Climate's been changing before humans and I find it ironic once the hockey stick BS was exposed it went from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" where leftists could use every weather pattern that exists to promote their money grabbing agenda. Educate yourself with common sense here and you can thank me later.

 

Boom Boom

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You must be an elementary school teacher who promotes pronoun choices and Drag Queen Story Hour. Or maybe a government social worker. Or Maybe a Fed. Clyburn's name doesn't belong in the same sentence with the word "Right".
Ok, where you put him within the Dem Party? With AOC?
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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Al Gore said in '98 the polar ice caps would be gone in 2013. Climate's been changing before humans and I find it ironic once the hockey stick BS was exposed it went from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" where leftists could use every weather pattern that exists to promote their money grabbing agenda. Educate yourself with common sense here and you can thank me later.


Ok, Gore wasn't fully right. Who is? But was he right that the planet was warming?
 

LordMcBuckethead

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Free Market American Capitialism that was allowed to happen based on our Constitution's Laws that protect individual property rights fueled an economic explosion that improved the human condition on a Global Scale the likes never dreamed of in World History.
And that is what Early Stage Capitalism looks like. Later stages of Capitalism doesn't look as good for the individual or the world as the greed grows too powerful to be in a position to be adequately checked by the system.
 
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LordMcBuckethead

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Ok, Gore wasn't fully right. Who is? But was he right that the planet was warming?
He was also right that the polar ice caps are melting at a very fast rate. Who knew dealing with almost an infinite amount of variables, and ever changing global actions was tough to get a prediction estimate exactly correct to the exact year. I am sure everyone here passed thermodynamics with a perfect 100 score without studying.
 

Boom Boom

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2022
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Al Gore said in '98 the polar ice caps would be gone in 2013. Climate's been changing before humans and I find it ironic once the hockey stick BS was exposed it went from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" where leftists could use every weather pattern that exists to promote their money grabbing agenda. Educate yourself with common sense here and you can thank me later.


Lol, and of course your claim is wrong too. Keep it up, you're a hoot!

 

LordMcBuckethead

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Sep 30, 2022
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It's not a given that the world will return to "normal". In fact, the stability we've had for decades is the outlier, not the norm.
The world will return to a "stable" situation through time. Wars, famine, global economic issues are the outlier if you graph it out long enough. Each barely a blip on the radar.
 

Cantdoitsal

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And that is what Early Stage Capitalism looks like. Later stages of Capitalism doesn't look as good for the individual or the world as the greed grows too powerful to be in a position to be adequately checked by the system.
So how does the standard of living compare to those living in South Korea VS North Korea? West Germany VS East Germany before the Wall Came Down? Miami VS Cuba? Venezuela VS Chile? Hong Kong and Taiwan VS China? Socialilists and Communists have the same end goal game they play. The difference is Communism takes control by guns pointed at heads; socialism does it thru democracy / voting. Basically only a difference between murder and suicide.
 
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