There will still be more remote/hybrid work than historically for sure. But the push is big to get people back into the office. I'm not convinced it will help that much though.
I have worked remotely my entire career effectively. Some people are cut out for it and others are not. A good rule of thumb, the cohort in the office that is playing candy crush, checking facebook, packing up at 4:45 every afternoon, and burning tires at 5:00 to get out of there are not working at the office either. The show up early and stay late crowd will get it done from anywhere.
My counterpoint is that the bigger issue to the lack of productivity since Covid has less to do with remote work and a lot more to do with the lack of giving a ****. When you lay everyone off and give them tons of stimulus and perks to not work, they tend to think if it happens again uncle sam will have their backs. Service in everything from retail to construction to B2B has been absolute dog **** for the last 2 years. I am not talking about shortages and supply chain delays, I am talking about not getting phone calls returned for weeks at a time. No follow ups after deadlines are missed by "salespeople." Empty glasses sitting on tables at dinner until you walk back to the kitchen to get it yourself only to find everyone in the back chatting.
While it will suck personally, there is a big part of me that hopes we have a real recession with big time layoffs. No fed support either. Let some of these 17ers that are coasting through their jobs actually experience some struggles so they appreciate gainful employment down the road. Right now there is not a day that goes by that I don't personally experience **** service somewhere and it seems to be getting worse.
It wasn't even 15 years ago when the great recession hit. I **** you not, as coworkers, customers, and other colleagues were getting laid off en masse... I though every single day from about mid 2008 until 2011 or so was going to be my last. There was no backstop. We worked our assess off and because of it, we built a booming economy that lasted a decade.
"The tree of capitalism must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of lazy asses and malingerers. It is its natural manure."
ThomasJefferson'sSocks
ETA. The BLS confirms productivity is down considerably in 2022. In fact, the last 2 quarters (-7.4% and -4.6%) are the worst declines in productivity since the data was collected in the 1940's. On top of that, because of inflation and pay raises added to the output decline per hour worked, the unit labor costs are up 10.8% YOY. I don't want to hear anymore of this greedy corporations are causing inflation ********. Labor costs are up 10.8% YOY and inflation is at 8.5%. The companies aren't even raising prices as much as their labor cost increase. So the labor component of a widget is up 10.8%, but the widget is only up 8.5%.
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https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
My guess is this is a combination of a few things, like supply chains and covid disruptions... But lazy asses are definitely apart of it.