Polls in the future

[POTUS]

You can bookmark this for 2026 & 2028 but I can’t recommend Rich Baris (@peoplespundit) and @bigdatapoll enough. They actually tell it like it is. They called NC to the decimal weeks ago. This isn’t a left or right thing, though I believe he is a red team guy, but takes polling very seriously and has clowned 538 and other folks for years. Great follow.

 

[GloryDawg]

Never believe polls. They are hired by someone with an agenda. Watch what the candidate does, say, how they act and where they go. It was obvious what was happening a week ago. She went from Joy and Happy Vibes to full blown Dark. When you bring out the Nazi accusations you are losing.

 

[85Bears]

Poly market was gold, Nate Silver is a certifiable fraud As is the entire legacy media. Filth

 

[GloryDawg]

Poly market was gold, Nate Silver is a certifiable fraud As is the entire legacy media. Filth

The media needs to look in the mirror this morning and recognize they lost their influence over elections and just report the news. Stop being so political. ABC gave 92% positive converge for harries and 95% negative for Trump.

Not the media but SNL should be ashamed of what they did.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Thought this thread was going in a different direction...

 

[POTUS]

I’ll put this here, bc politics is sunsetting here (and thank goodness, we need to get back to the meme thread!), but the question must be asked: How did Kamala lose 20 million votes from Biden’s 2020? That’s 25% or there about. That’s not going to silence folks who had questions about the 2020 election, but embolden them. I wish every state would shore up election integrity. Voter ID. Paper ballots. Immediate results. Basically whatever Florida has done. People should feel certain about the process.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

They never get it right... Apathy always wins. 250 million eligible voters. 80 million vote for this candidate. 80 million vote for that candidate. 90 million say 17 it, I am not wasting my time on either of them.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I’m curious what sites / aggregate polling studies showed that Kamala was going to win?

Pretty sure that even 538 had Trump as a slight favorite and winning most of their simulations. I certainly went into it thinking it might be close, but Trump felt like the bet if you were going to make one. And I’m not a Trump fanboy.

You’ll always be able to find this one site that nails some state or nails it overall in one cycle. Polling error is still a thing, and most all the sites that analyze the polls make sure that disclaimer is very prominent.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I’ll put this here, bc politics is sunsetting here (and thank goodness, we need to get back to the meme thread!), but the question must be asked: How did Kamala lose 20 million votes from Biden’s 2020? That’s 25% or there about.

She didn’t. Biden had 81 million in 2020, Harris currently at 66 million with a lot of votes yet to be counted. Only 58% of votes have been counted in California.

It does seem like turnout was much lower overall, for both Democrats and Republicans, than 2020….especially when adjusting for additional eligible voters that have entered the electorate over the past 4 years. Just more apathy this time around, which seems to track because we’re not in this COVID induced powder keg anymore.

That’s not going to silence folks who had questions about the 2020 election, but embolden them.

Meh, give it a few days for all the final numbers to be counted. Neither of the past 2 elections have been crooked.

I wish every state would shore up election integrity. Voter ID. Paper ballots. Immediate results. Basically whatever Florida has done. People should feel certain about the process.

People should feel certain about the process. I didn’t love having 3 people crowded around the machine I was feeding my ballot into because there was a problem with it ejecting the ballot into the basket in the lockbox at the bottom after scanning it. Don’t feel like anything nefarious was happening, but definitely didn’t feel privacy / confidentiality were being protected there.

In this digital age, there has to be away to securely streamline the process to make remote voting more of a thing. In-person should still always be an option of course.

 

[Curby]

Always look at the betting numbers. People with skin in the game are straight up.

I know people who, secretly, were Trumpers that were called by pollsters and (just to mess with their numbers) told them they were voting Kamala.

The silent majority spoke yesterday.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Poly market was gold, Nate Silver is a certifiable fraud As is the entire legacy media. Filth

How exactly is Nate Silver a certifiable fraud?

 

[8dog]

She didn’t. Biden had 81 million in 2020, Harris currently at 66 million with a lot of votes yet to be counted. Only 58% of votes have been counted in California.

It does seem like turnout was much lower overall, for both Democrats and Republicans, than 2020….especially when adjusting for additional eligible voters that have entered the electorate over the past 4 years. Just more apathy this time around, which seems to track because we’re not in this COVID induced powder keg anymore.


Meh, give it a few days for all the final numbers to be counted. Neither of the past 2 elections have been crooked.



People should feel certain about the process. I didn’t love having 3 people crowded around the machine I was feeding my ballot into because there was a problem with it ejecting the ballot into the basket in the lockbox at the bottom after scanning it. Don’t feel like anything nefarious was happening, but definitely didn’t feel privacy / confidentiality were being protected there.

In this digital age, there has to be away to securely streamline the process to make remote voting more of a thing. In-person should still always be an option of course.

And if you look at the states that were allegedly stolen there is nothing questionable. She actually got more votes than Biden in Georgia and Wisconsin. The other states were exactly what you would expect. She lost a small amount of votes that basically went to Trump. But enough to swing the election. Oddly she lost about 1.1 million votes in….NY. And not many of those went to Trump. Just super low turnout.

The polls were much better this time. They pretty much all had it as a toss up and it was.

 

[L4Dawg]

I’ll put this here, bc politics is sunsetting here (and thank goodness, we need to get back to the meme thread!), but the question must be asked: How did Kamala lose 20 million votes from Biden’s 2020? That’s 25% or there about. That’s not going to silence folks who had questions about the 2020 election, but embolden them. I wish every state would shore up election integrity. Voter ID. Paper ballots. Immediate results. Basically whatever Florida has done. People should feel certain about the process.

There was no real enthusiasm for Harris. That is no surprise at all.

 

[L4Dawg]

The thing with polls is that a lot of people will not talk to them. In the cell phone age who answers a call from an unknown out of state number?

 

[POTUS]

In this digital age, there has to be away to securely streamline the process to make remote voting more of a thing. In-person should still always be an option of course.

That does not scream security to me. Ripe for abuse. Again, whatever FL does, do it. They got embarrassed in 2000 and now they are the gold standard. There's no good reason not to do what they do.

 

[Raiderdawg]

I’ll put this here, bc politics is sunsetting here (and thank goodness, we need to get back to the meme thread!), but the question must be asked: How did Kamala lose 20 million votes from Biden’s 2020? That’s 25% or there about. That’s not going to silence folks who had questions about the 2020 election, but embolden them.

Then they can’t look at a map.

The gap wont be down 20 million once all the votes are counted. She will pick up another overall 5-10 million votes once the western states are finished counting. California will get her 4 million or more.

The only states seems to have picked up votes compared to last year are swing states, Georgia and Wisconsin. Across the board she lost in red, blue or purple states. She lost 100,000 in Mississippi and over a million in New York, but still won it.

The data doesn’t support a conspiracy in 2020. The data supports the democrats ran a terrible candidate tied to an unpopular lame duck president and they hemorrhaged votes in almost every state to get us a result that looks exactly like 2004.

 

[L4Dawg]

That does not scream security to me. Ripe for abuse. Again, whatever FL does, do it. They got embarrassed in 2000 and now they are the gold standard. There's no good reason not to do what they do.

Almost 60% of Florida's votes were early votes. They also have vote by mail, by request.

 

[VegasDawg13]

There was no real enthusiasm for Harris. That is no surprise at all.

Her getting 75% of the total votes Biden got 4 years would be extremely surprising, if it were true. Alas...

 

[dawgstudent]

I agree. I don't understand how we aren't ranked in the top 25 in basketball.

 

[HRMSU]

And if you look at the states that were allegedly stolen there is nothing questionable. She actually got more votes than Biden in Georgia and Wisconsin. The other states were exactly what you would expect. She lost a small amount of votes that basically went to Trump. But enough to swing the election. Oddly she lost about 1.1 million votes in….NY. And not many of those went to Trump. Just super low turnout.

The polls were much better this time. They pretty much all had it as a toss up and it was.

Not sure I'd call the actual results a toss up or even close and nobody had the popular vote win on their bingo card.

 

[campshelbydog1116]

The gambling odds were right, as they are almost every single time. The only polls to pay attention to as they don’t care about either candidate.

 

[HRMSU]

I agree. I don't understand how we aren't ranked in the top 25 in basketball.

I did see that we made a Sportscenter top 10 play the other day with the alley oop off the backboard and they'd didn't call us Ole Miss***

 

[8dog]

Not sure I'd call the actual results a toss up or even close and nobody had the popular vote win on their bingo card.

Well the popular votes not done. Not saying it will change. But the race was really close. The EC just makes it look like it wasn’t. You are probably talking about 400k votes total in 4 states with Trump maybe not even taking 50% in one of those. That’s not a lot. It was tight.

 

[HRMSU]

Well the popular votes not done. Not saying it will change. But the race was really close. The EC just makes it look like it wasn’t. You are probably talking about 400k votes total in 4 states with Trump maybe not even taking 50% in one of those. That’s not a lot. It was tight.

I get the EC but I'd call close her winning the popular vote and a few swing states. That's not happening. Orange Man bad is FAR from an ideal candidate but man what does this say about her?

 

[8dog]

I get the EC but I'd call close her winning the popular vote and a few swing states. That's not happening. Orange Man bad is FAR from an ideal candidate but man what does this say about her?

I don’t really think it was her as much as inflation and her link to the admin at the time. Voters don’t really think very deeply

 

[johnson86-1]

Never believe polls. They are hired by someone with an agenda. Watch what the candidate does, say, how they act and where they go. It was obvious what was happening a week ago. She went from Joy and Happy Vibes to full blown Dark. When you bring out the Nazi accusations you are losing.

There are certainly partisan pollsters that are hired for messaging and not to provide good data (at least publicly), but there are other pollsters that rely on being more or less trusted, which means being more or less accurate, that are trying their best to figure out the new landscape and failing.

I think you're going to see more and more people look at data other than polling responses to hone in on their predictions as the people that will talk to pollsters become less and less representative of voters as a whole. They're already doing this obviously, but I think it's going to be more pronounced.

Right now I think pollsters are trying more to adjust their data to what they think is going to happen more so than use their data to make predictions, because they just can't get people to respond and especially can't get people supporting trump to respond when major politicians are calling them garbage and nazis. I don't think they have a way to correct for that issue and to the extent they can, it will be with data outside of poll responses, not adjusting their numbers based on the make-up of their respondents.

 

[HRMSU]

I don’t really think it was her as much as inflation and her link to the admin at the time. Voters don’t really think very deeply

Agree on both points but she closed the gap on the economy toward the end so movement was possible. She ran too much of the hide in the basement campaign and then when she had to make herself more visible she couldn't even share any framework of fixing the economy besides just saying stop price gouging which I think a lot of people interpreted as price fixing which is far left and un-American. Inexperienced candidate with bad management. I did think she got better towards the end and might could have made it closer with more time and more center left talking points/framework.

 

[pseudonym]

It's always interesting to see how the polls are wrong.

Trump's overperformance compared to RCP average in swing states so far:

• Georgia: +0.9%
• North Carolina: +1.9%
• Pennsylvania: +2.1%
• Michigan: +2.1%
• Wisconsin: +1.2%
• Arizona: +1.9%
• Nevada: +4.1%

 

[JackShephard]

The polls were much better this time. They pretty much all had it as a toss up and it was.

They were a little bit better, but they were not good. The main problem still remains. They all miss to the left. They missed by less this time, but they still missed to the left. Just like they do 90% of the time. And just like the left does with everything, they crap on anything perceived as leaning right. Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and other pollsters on the right did the best again. But 538, NYT, etc. Just throw them out and call them partisan hacks. The only difference is they may miss to the right instead of the left, but they generally miss by less. Plus, they are the main reason the polls missed by less this year. They pulled the RCP averages to the correct side.

538 aggregates/projections missed to the left on every swing state called. Georgia by 1.1, NC by 2.3, PA by 2.4, WI by 2, MN by 1.3, OH by 3, FL by 7.1, VA by 1.6.

RCP was marginally better because they don't simply throw out or ignore right leaning pollsters. They missed to the left on GA by 0.9, NC by 2.2, PA by 1.9, WI by 1.3, OH by 2.6, and FL by 5.2. They missed to the right on MN by 0.4 and VA by 0.2.

We don't know on NV, MI, or AZ yet, but they are all trending to miss to the left.

The main take away is that the polls are still biased en masse, but a little less biased than in years past. It just comes down to them not wanting to see the truth if it doesn't match what they want to see.

I know Nate Silver and his minions want to pitch this as "the polls were right, it was a toss up", but that's really not true. Everyone that works there wanted a different result. They make no bones about it. They view everything through a blue lens and explain away or ignore things that don't fit their narrative. I've been following this and doing data analysis for a month at this point. The signs were there. Trump was the favorite, and it really wasn't going to be that close. It was there to see. My personal projection was Trump with 306 or 312. I destroyed 538, and it wasn't hard.

Oh, and the Senate polls were pretty much garbage. So, no, the polls weren't right.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Voters don’t really think very deeply

They certainly don't, which is why all Democrats should have done in the Trump Era is nominate a candidate that low-information voters generally like. Unfortunately for them, they chose Hill Dawg and Kamala

 

[JackShephard]

They certainly don't, which is why all Democrats should have done in the Trump Era is nominate a candidate that low-information voters generally like. Unfortunately for them, they chose Hill Dawg and Kamala

Really all they had to do was leave Trump alone. He was dead after 1/6. But they revived him by persecuting him. If they had ignored him, he would be retired right now.

Of course then, we're likely looking at a President DeSantis, unless the Dems had been honest about Joe's senility and ousted him via a fair and open primary.

 

[Shmuley]

You can bookmark this for 2026 & 2028 but I can’t recommend Rich Baris (@peoplespundit) and @bigdatapoll enough. They actually tell it like it is. They called NC to the decimal weeks ago. This isn’t a left or right thing, though I believe he is a red team guy, but takes polling very seriously and has clowned 538 and other folks for years. Great follow.

Hopefully no one will listen to that insufferable bastard Allen Lichtman any longer. 17 that guy.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Really all they had to do was leave Trump alone. He was dead after 1/6. But they revived him by persecuting him. If they had ignored him, he would be retired right now.

Of course then, we're likely looking at a President DeSantis, unless the Dems had been honest about Joe's senility and ousted him via a fair and open primary.

I don't disagree with your point, but I genuinely believe if they nominated almost anyone else in 2016, "that time Donald Trump ran for president" would have become fun/surprising historical trivia in a few decades. Unfortunately for them, it was "her turn"