Pre-bracket release/post bracket release NCAA seed discussion
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Here is why.
165 pounds
Top title contenders: Keegan O’Toole, Mitchell Mesenbrink, David Carr, Dean Hamiti, Julian Ramirez
All-American sleeper: No. 26 Caleb Fish
This is the deepest, most exciting weight class in the country. Missouri's Keegan O'Toole leads the way with his perfect 19-0 record that includes wins over four-time Big 12 champion David Carr and 174-pound Big Ten champion Edmond Ruth. O'Toole will have a solid path to the semifinals, where, if the brackets go chalk, he'll meet the winner of No. 4 David Carr vs. No. 5 Dean Hamiti. Carr won NCAAs in 2021 while Hamiti won Big Tens in 2023. Both Carr and Hamiti could be title threats, but only one will advance past the quarterfinals.
At the No. 2 seed, Big Ten champion Mitchell Mesenbrink has Northwestern's Maxx Mayfield first, and he could also potentially see All-Americans Izzak Olejnik or Cameron Amine in the quarterfinals, depending on who makes it out of the second round. In the semifinals, if the brackets go chalk, Mesenbrink could meet No. 3 Julian Ramirez of Cornell, the only wrestler beyond O'Toole in the field with a win over Carr. There's so much talent in this weight that it's easy to focus on the stars and ignore the sleepers, but Caleb Fish at the No. 26 is interesting. Fish had a rough Big Ten tournament, but he previously held Hamiti to a 5-3 decision earlier this year, and, if he can find his groove in Kansas City, he could pull off some upsets in this deep weight class.
Yeah, I'd agree that Parco is the bigger hurdle.
To me, Gomez is one of the bigger wildcards in any weight class. If he's able to hit his throws, he can beat pretty much anyone. But he always has matches where his opponent doesn't allow that, and he ends up looking unimpressive. I was somewhat surprised he (Gomez) got a #6 seed when he only wrestled 11 matches on the season (going 9-2).
167 has two former ncaa champs plus Hamiti in top bracket. Messenbrink is in lower bracket but it may be the toughest weight class. So it happens. Just based on current rank. Star at 9th is crazy as everyone knows.
The matrix doesn't work to do what "seeding " is supposed to do, separate the best wrestlers in each weight class, as best you can.
Sharipo scares me a little hope he loses before the finals. Chittum is the real deal.
A sleeper is someone that comes out of nowhere. Truax or kasak to make the finals would be a "sleeper". Mesenbrink making the finals would surprise no one.
There's an unlikely but non-zero chance Aaron faces PA wrestlers in every round (though it would need 2 upsets):
- R1: 32 Crawford (Strath Haven)
- R2: 16 Luke Stout (Mt Lebanon)
- Qtrs: 24 Urbas (State High)
- Semis: Beard or 21 Mac Stout (Mt Lebo) or 28 Wehmeyer (Sellersville/Malvern Prep)
- Finals: Hidlay or 15 Shaw (Thomas Jefferson)
Urbas beating Little or Buchanan is unlikely, let alone both. The other 4 rounds are realistic.
Lol. Ok. If he wins it all in that bracket then yes that would be a sleeper in my book and the experience in that bracket with 2 national champions and Hamiti would be incredible for a freshmen!
lol. Ok. To make the finals and win it would be! He would have to beat number 3 then number 2 then number 1.
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It’s possible of course. As I said above he has to beat 3 then 2 to get to finals then face number 1.
Unfortunately, @Tom McAndrew has developed several debilitating diseases from the glyphosate he has ingested from eating Quaker Oats. Also, it didn't help Thomas's insulin levels because he ate the instant oats instead of the steel cut varieties that are slower absorbed.
Beau upset Matthews in a complete brain-drain by Matthews. Beau was seeded lower than Matthews. Beau was losing with 3 seconds and instead of just running away, Matthews inexplicably tried to defend and gave up points at the buzzer. Huge effort by Beau to never quit, but he was DOA if Matthews wrestled intelligently.
You can't make the claim "undefeated". He has two injury defaults on his record. Those are loses. Plain and simply. Part of wrestling is injury. If it happened earlier in the season, like to Nolf, then you just sit out the matches. But that's not the hand he was dealt. Crap happens. CStar doesn't care. He's going to go out and wrestle.
Cole has a plenty of losses on the year. He went through a funk for sure. He also has several great wins on his resume this year, including multiple wins against guys in top 5 seeds. Dismissing him would be a mistake.
I don't think Bastida is anywhere close to Kerk. Yes, he is undefeated on the season. I watched the Big12 final between Bastida and WH. Bastida didn't take a single shot. He scored 2 TDs. First one off a poor finish attempt by WH which also led to NF. Second, WH panicked with time winding down in the 3rd. Tried to throw when he was clearly going to score the TD and he ended up giving up TD. More about 2 bad mistakes by WH than anything Bastida did to win it.
If they wrestled 100 times I would take Beau in 90-95 of those matches because Cole can't score
I watched Ty Watters, WV, Pa. freshman, the 5 seed. He looked pretty tough to me. He is in the opposite bracket from Kasak.
Agree. Beau was losing to Matthews at last year's NCAAs in OT and took him down with only 6 or 7 seconds left in the bout from a restart. Great takedown but Matthews is not a walk in the park.
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