PSU favored by 18.5 over MSU

[Nitwit]

First - I don’t bet. But I find this line out of whack. MSU put up a ton of yards on Indiana last weekend in a loosing effort. They doubled Indiana’s offense. I don’t know how they managed to lose that game in double overtime but they did. I know Indiana stinks, but still. MSU needs to win to become bowl eligible so I wouldn’t count on them rolling over in this game unless the score gets out of hand early on but that doesn’t seem to be PSU’s MO lately. MSU has wins against Illinois and Wisconsin this year. And this being Clifford’s last game at the Beav gives me an uneasy feeling that he might be a little too amped up with adrenaline early on and maybe not his sharpest self. All that combined with our lingering injuries lead me to believe that MSU might just give us a scare. I think we can win this game because it’s a home game, and in fact MSU is just not all that good and it’s sort of a revenge game for us from last season, but not by 18 points. I can see maybe PSU 35 MSU 21 with the game close until the 4th quarter. What do ya think?

 

[PSU87]

I'd like to see the stats on W/L after losing an overtime game.

I've got no hard data to back it up, but just feels like losing in OT takes a lot out of a team and it shows the following week.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

MSU needs to win to become bowl eligible so I wouldn’t count on them rolling over in this game

They needed a win vs Indiana to become eligible as well. At home. On senior day.

 

[WestSideLion]

I'd like to see the stats on W/L after losing an overtime game.

I've got no hard data to back it up, but just feels like losing in OT takes a lot out of a team and it shows the following week.

And flying to the middle of nowhere PA for a Thanksgiving weekend road game? Anything can happen, but these kids can’t be looking forward to making this trip.

 

[Grant Green]

First - I don’t bet. But I find this line out of whack. MSU put up a ton of yards on Indiana last weekend in a loosing effort. They doubled Indiana’s offense. I don’t know how they managed to lose that game in double overtime but they did. I know Indiana stinks, but still. MSU needs to win to become bowl eligible so I wouldn’t count on them rolling over in this game unless the score gets out of hand early on but that doesn’t seem to be PSU’s MO lately. MSU has wins against Illinois and Wisconsin this year. And this being Clifford’s last game at the Beav gives me an uneasy feeling that he might be a little too amped up with adrenaline early on and maybe not his sharpest self. All that combined with our lingering injuries lead me to believe that MSU might just give us a scare. I think we can win this game because it’s a home game, and in fact MSU is just not all that good and it’s sort of a revenge game for us from last season, but not by 18 points. I can see maybe PSU 35 MSU 21 with the game close until the 4th quarter. What do ya think?

Not being a smart ***, but if you don't bet and you see a line that looks off, it's probably you and not the oddsmaker.
The line is just about right.

 

[BostonNit]

This game could be a nailbiter. Or a blowout. MSU usually plays us tougher they should but they do seem to be a pretty lousy team this year.

 

[psuro]

The way PSU has played -take PSU and the points.

 

[LionJim]

The way PSU has played -take PSU and the points.

It’s nice that we can say this.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

I hope 14 shines. Happy it’s home going to msu this time of year looks awful

 

[Connorpozlee]

The way PSU has played -take PSU and the points.

I don’t bet either but I agree with you. If I was a betting man my money would be on Penn State.
I really think we may be a receiver away from a legit playoff team next year, depending upon who stays or leaves during the off-season (Fashanu).

 

[VaDave4PSU]

I don’t bet either but I agree with you. If I was a betting man my money would be on Penn State.
I really think we may be a receiver away from a legit playoff team next year, depending upon who stays or leaves during the off-season (Fashanu).

DT, Mike, and RT are fairly big question marks as well. LB isn't the void it was to start the year, but RT is absolutely dreadful in pass pro and somehow we have replaced Waller twice in one season at LT to great/good results (Olu was great, Shelton has been good, although for a true freshman year you could probably say he's doing great).

DT shouldn't lose a lot other than PJ and perhaps somebody down the chart, but we need size in there. I'd love to see a portal pickup here. A Tangelo type would be excellent.

WR is interesting because I truly don't know how much is "our guys aren't open" vs "Clifford doesn't throw them good enough passes consistently". One thing I will credit Stubblefield with, the hands seem 10x better than they were prior to his arrival. Our guys are catching contested balls WHEN THEY GET THERE.

Additionally, I wonder how much of the current offense is specifically catered to Clifford and how much we change we see next year with Allar, presumably, at the helm. He seems to have a great rapport with Evans and Dinkins already. I still don't get the comments about not getting him hurt behind a patchwork OL, yet letting him run zone reads and the like. But hey, maybe they are evaluating how much of the old playbook is worth bringing back after taking a lot of RPO stuff out.

 

[JerseyLion]

When you consider that PSU's smallest margin of victory over the past 3 games was 30 points and two of the games were on the road, the spread doesn't look so out of whack.

 

[LionJim]

When you consider that PSU's smallest margin of victory over the past 3 games was 30 points and two of the games were on the road, the spread doesn't look so out of whack.

There was some stat put up on the screen to the effect that, iirc, Ohio State and Penn State lead the country in most wins by 25+.

 

[Lionville]

Didn’t PSU spank that same Indiana team that beat MSU at their place a few weeks ago? To me that puts MSU on the same level or lower than Indiana. Lay the points. It’s senior day.

 

[BrucePa]

OK, is 10-2 and a New Years 6 Bowl against, say, Clemson good enough for this fan base?

 

[LionJim]

OK, is 10-2 and a New Years 6 Bowl against, say, Clemson good enough for this fan base?

It’s going to have to do, for this year anyway.

 

[Bones80]

DT, Mike, and RT are fairly big question marks as well. LB isn't the void it was to start the year, but RT is absolutely dreadful in pass pro and somehow we have replaced Waller twice in one season at LT to great/good results (Olu was great, Shelton has been good, although for a true freshman year you could probably say he's doing great).

DT shouldn't lose a lot other than PJ and perhaps somebody down the chart, but we need size in there. I'd love to see a portal pickup here. A Tangelo type would be excellent.

WR is interesting because I truly don't know how much is "our guys aren't open" vs "Clifford doesn't throw them good enough passes consistently". One thing I will credit Stubblefield with, the hands seem 10x better than they were prior to his arrival. Our guys are catching contested balls WHEN THEY GET THERE.

Additionally, I wonder how much of the current offense is specifically catered to Clifford and how much we change we see next year with Allar, presumably, at the helm. He seems to have a great rapport with Evans and Dinkins already. I still don't get the comments about not getting him hurt behind a patchwork OL, yet letting him run zone reads and the like. But hey, maybe they are evaluating how much of the old playbook is worth bringing back after taking a lot of RPO stuff out.

I think our biggest loss next year will be in leadership. Losing Tig, PJ, Cliff, Sunderland, and possibly Juice takes out most of the leadership team. Lots of young talent and hopefully new leaders develop, but I think the leaders above have helped team overcome adversity this year and kept them focused after losses.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

OK, is 10-2 and a New Years 6 Bowl against, say, Clemson good enough for this fan base?

Yes. And no.

Coming off 4-5, 7-6 records, 10-2 is a great progession. It's better than the 8-4 many here expected.

Still, losing to the Bucks and Wolverines sucked balls. Michigan didn't punt, we never lined up properly, and we couldn't move the ball. The Buckeyes played conservative, and took advantage of turnovers. Have to fix those things. A lot of this is going to fall on the shoulders of Drew Allar. Build everything to give him the best possible support.

 

[PSUJam]

 

[Jerademan]

Yes. And no.

Coming off 4-5, 7-6 records, 10-2 is a great progession. It's better than the 8-4 many here expected.

Still, losing to the Bucks and Wolverines sucked balls. Michigan didn't punt, we never lined up properly, and we couldn't move the ball. The Buckeyes played conservative, and took advantage of turnovers. Have to fix those things. A lot of this is going to fall on the shoulders of Drew Allar. Build everything to give him the best possible support.

It is hard for me to understand why we keep losing to OSU in the 4th quarter. The only thing that I can think of is that they have overall better talent and they wear us down towards the end of a game. I think we are getting closer this season and maybe next year will put us on equal footing. The issue though is that we play in Columbus and we tend not to score too many points there.

The Michigan loss was a combination of being overpowered on both sides of the line due to size differences, and Michigan taking advantage of our poor defensive coverage over the middle of the field. I believe Diaz won't allow the latter to happen next season, but until we get bigger linemen, will the same happen next year? We should beat Michigan next season as we do have overall equal talent, but play at Beaver Stadium. OSU, could be a different story.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

It is hard for me to understand why we keep losing to OSU in the 4th quarter. The only thing that I can think of is that they have overall better talent and they wear us down towards the end of a game. I think we are getting closer this season and maybe next year will put us on equal footing. The issue though is that we play in Columbus and we tend not to score too many points there.

The Michigan loss was a combination of being overpowered on both sides of the line due to size differences, and Michigan taking advantage of our poor defensive coverage over the middle of the field. I believe Diaz won't allow the latter to happen next season, but until we get bigger linemen, will the same happen next year? We should beat Michigan next season as we do have overall equal talent, but play at Beaver Stadium. OSU, could be a different story.

4 turnovers sunk us vs the Buckeyes. Nobody is going to hold their offense completely down in good weather.

Michigan was a learning experience. I think it's made us better. It sucks, but our play has improved. Izzard returning has helped. I don't think he played vs Michigan. Alignment stunk, LBs failed. Too much respect for their WRs. Offense tried to be a running team predictably early and couldn't hold up on 3rd and long. Perfectly BAD game plan for that game. TRASH IT!

 

[BobPSU92]

18.5 points with the Land Grant Trophy at stake?

 

[Tom_PSU]

18.5 points with the Land Grant Trophy at stake?

It wouldn’t surprise me if the team and coaches tanked the MSU game just to keep that God awful piece of junk off the campus.

 

[PSU12046]

18.5 points with the Land Grant Trophy at stake?

 

[PSU12046]

18.5 points with the Land Grant Trophy at stake?

That's just an insult to the Land Grant Trophy!!!

 

[psuro]

OK, is 10-2 and a New Years 6 Bowl against, say, Clemson good enough for this fan base?

I don't think you are getting that matchup. If Clemson does not get into CFP, and wins the ACC, they are locked into the Orange Bowl. The opponent for them will be the highest ranked SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame.

Here is from Wiki....

The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is locked into a 12-year deal (2014–2025) with the Orange Bowl, so if the ACC champion qualifies for the playoffs in a year when the Orange Bowl is not a semifinal host, the next-highest ranked ACC team will play in the Orange Bowl. For the secondary tie-ins, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the Big Ten Conference are guaranteed three appearances each, and the University of Notre Dame can play in a maximum of two games, but is not guaranteed any appearances. The ACC team's opponent in a given year will be the highest-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame, subject to several constraints: the SEC and Big Ten champions are always excluded, and when an SEC and/or Big Ten team qualifies for the College Football Playoff, the next available team would also be excluded from participating in the Orange Bowl due to contractual obligations with the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, respectively. Also, should a highest-ranked team create a rematch with the ACC team, the Orange Bowl has the option of passing over that team for the next-highest ranked team among the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame, again subject to the noted constraints. Rankings are based on the College Football Playoff committee's rankings. ESPN holds the television rights for 12 years as well.[11]

Right now, I would assume Bama will remain ahead of PSU. And if the OB can get Clemson - Bama, it would be a good matchup. If Bama somehow loses to Auburn, and assuming the CFP does not follow the same model that is keeping Tennessee ahead of PSU, then, perhaps PSU gets in. But that might still take some lobbying even though the SEC has played in the last two OBs against an ACC opponent. But, I don't see PSU in the OB. And I don't think you can get ACC-Big Ten in any other bowl game.

 

[ApexLion]

OK, is 10-2 and a New Years 6 Bowl against, say, Clemson good enough for this fan base?

I hate a 11-2 season. blech.

 

[psuro]

It is hard for me to understand why we keep losing to OSU in the 4th quarter. The only thing that I can think of is that they have overall better talent and they wear us down towards the end of a game. I think we are getting closer this season and maybe next year will put us on equal footing. The issue though is that we play in Columbus and we tend not to score too many points there.

I don't think it's just the 4th quarter. It's losing to them period.

Look at this way - why does PSU almost always beat Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, and Illinois? Combined, PSU is 148-21 against these programs, dating back to 1917.

If you know the answer to that question, then you know the answer to your question.

 

[Tom_PSU]

It’s always a losing proposition. Go 11-2 and lose to OSU and UM and some people go ballistic. Go 11-2 and beat OSU and UM, but lose two others and some other people go ballistic. Go 14-0 and even then people go ballistic if you lose a game in the next year

 

[Nits74]

It’s always a losing proposition. Go 11-2 and lose to OSU and UM and some people go ballistic. Go 11-2 and beat OSU and UM, but lose two others and some other people go ballistic. Go 14-0 and even then people go ballistic if you lose a game in the next year

Get it, but I like the attitude. Penn State needs to start beating the top tier programs once in awhile.

 

[DaytonRickster]

First - I don’t bet. But I find this line out of whack. MSU put up a ton of yards on Indiana last weekend in a loosing effort. They doubled Indiana’s offense. I don’t know how they managed to lose that game in double overtime but they did. I know Indiana stinks, but still. MSU needs to win to become bowl eligible so I wouldn’t count on them rolling over in this game unless the score gets out of hand early on but that doesn’t seem to be PSU’s MO lately. MSU has wins against Illinois and Wisconsin this year. And this being Clifford’s last game at the Beav gives me an uneasy feeling that he might be a little too amped up with adrenaline early on and maybe not his sharpest self. All that combined with our lingering injuries lead me to believe that MSU might just give us a scare. I think we can win this game because it’s a home game, and in fact MSU is just not all that good and it’s sort of a revenge game for us from last season, but not by 18 points. I can see maybe PSU 35 MSU 21 with the game close until the 4th quarter. What do ya think?

Agree. Also, MSU defensive line is probably more stout and deep than Rutgers and PSU OL still only playing an iron 5 plus 1 (J.B. Nelson) unless C. Wallace is able to play, then that gives PSU seven OLs that have game experience.

 

[VaDave4PSU]

Agree. Also, MSU defensive line is probably more stout and deep than Rutgers and PSU OL still only playing an iron 5 plus 1 (J.B. Nelson) unless C. Wallace is able to play, then that gives PSU seven OLs that have game experience.

I'm in no shape form or fashion saying Sparty can't put together a great game and cause havoc, but Sparty is 100th vs the run while Rutgers is 59th. Sparty sacks the QB better (26 vs 15), but Rutgers is 33rd in the country on 3rd down defense to Spartys 100+, and 23 vs 85 in pass yards allowed advantage Rutgers.

This is a bad Sparty defense. Rutgers outgained Sparty 460-453.

We should pick our score early and often a la Maryland and Indiana and be sitting on a nice cushion by the 3rd quarter. We might struggle early a la Rutgers, but pull away soon after.

 

[psuro]

I'm in no shape form or fashion saying Sparty can't put together a great game and cause havoc, but Sparty is 100th vs the run while Rutgers is 59th. Sparty sacks the QB better (26 vs 15), but Rutgers is 33rd in the country on 3rd down defense to Spartys 100+, and 23 vs 85 in pass yards allowed advantage Rutgers.

This is a bad Sparty defense. Rutgers outgained Sparty 460-453.

We should pick our score early and often a la Maryland and Indiana and be sitting on a nice cushion by the 3rd quarter. We might struggle early a la Rutgers, but pull away soon after.

We will wrestle the Land Grant Trophy from their dead cold hands.

 

[PSU12046]

We will wrestle the Land Grant Trophy from their dead cold hands.

 

[marshall23]

It’s always a losing proposition. Go 11-2 and lose to OSU and UM and some people go ballistic. Go 11-2 and beat OSU and UM, but lose two others and some other people go ballistic. Go 14-0 and even then people go ballistic if you lose a game in the next year

"We always deserve better"

 

[Grant Green]

I'm in no shape form or fashion saying Sparty can't put together a great game and cause havoc, but Sparty is 100th vs the run while Rutgers is 59th. Sparty sacks the QB better (26 vs 15), but Rutgers is 33rd in the country on 3rd down defense to Spartys 100+, and 23 vs 85 in pass yards allowed advantage Rutgers.

This is a bad Sparty defense. Rutgers outgained Sparty 460-453.

We should pick our score early and often a la Maryland and Indiana and be sitting on a nice cushion by the 3rd quarter. We might struggle early a la Rutgers, but pull away soon after.

Diving further into statistical disparity....

 

[VaDave4PSU]

Diving further into statistical disparity....


View attachment 265589

People forget how close we were to winning 4 of last years 6 losses. Learning to win (again) is important. Finishing the teams you should is a big deal.

 

[blion72]

Agree. Also, MSU defensive line is probably more stout and deep than Rutgers and PSU OL still only playing an iron 5 plus 1 (J.B. Nelson) unless C. Wallace is able to play, then that gives PSU seven OLs that have game experience.

what about Dawkins and GIA?

 

[blion72]

I'm in no shape form or fashion saying Sparty can't put together a great game and cause havoc, but Sparty is 100th vs the run while Rutgers is 59th. Sparty sacks the QB better (26 vs 15), but Rutgers is 33rd in the country on 3rd down defense to Spartys 100+, and 23 vs 85 in pass yards allowed advantage Rutgers.

This is a bad Sparty defense. Rutgers outgained Sparty 460-453.

We should pick our score early and often a la Maryland and Indiana and be sitting on a nice cushion by the 3rd quarter. We might struggle early a la Rutgers, but pull away soon after.

with our current OL and missing players, our offense can be challenged. a lot of last weeks yds came after game was in hand. DEF won that game. if we can run and or SC can pass we cover. comes down to SC. this series has had more weird situations than any other opponent

 

[Nitwit]

With a 4pm start, a 50% chance of showers, and cold temperatures, the offense may have to rely on PSU exploiting MSU’s weak run defense. I’d look for some conservative power football with the two backs up the middle and those dreaded sideline passes of two yards by SC early on to try to put together some offensive drives. MSU may overcommit to try to stop the run and hopefully we can break off one or two long TD runs. If the defense can keep up the stellar play we’ve seen the past few weeks and hold the Spartans off the scoreboard early on, and they should, the game is ours. We just need to avoid coughing up turnovers with a wet ball, overthrown passes by a adrenaline fueled QB playing his final home game, or muffed punt returns giving up a short field. Make MSU work for every yard in front of a hostile crowd and tough weather conditions and dominate the line of scrimmage. Easy Peasy right?