Small privates aren't going to be able to stay Division I. By 2030, the Presbyterian, Abilene Christian, Elon-type schools will have to drop to D3.
What no one in my circles can figure out is what is going to happen in D2. North Alabama/West Georgia/Valdosta State (and West Florida is about to announce) saw the writing on the wall and jumped to FCS.
Delta State and West Alabama are stuck in a bad place. The Arkansas D2s have the Oklahoma schools to keep them company. There's enough public D2s in Oklahoma and Texas to get through it.
The Gulf South Conferfence, once a D2 powerhouse conference full of national champs on a yearly basis, is a shell of its old self and is mostly private colleges that will be looking at D3 soon. Alabama-Huntsville and Auburn-Montgomery are there, but they don't play football. Delta State and West Alabama will have three choices:
1. Go Division I FCS (and both schools are losing money on athletics at a high rate already)
2. Find a new conference home with the Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma schools (which are in better shape for now, but do they want to travel to MS and AL?)
3. Drop football like MC did.
MUW has an odd problem too. Right now, they are D3 and a member of the St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. Yes, you read that right. They play in a conference with a bunch of teams in the St. Louis area. The issue is that many of those SLIAC schools are in financial trouble like Birmingham Southern, and one has announced its closure. MUW as a public college has no chance of getting into one of the D3 conferences in the footprint, so they will probably have to drop athletics again. That president at MUW is a disaster.
The changing landscape of big time college athletics is having a domino effect on all levels of college athletics, which removes opportunities from young men and women. I read an article that stated that 30,000-40,000 roster spots on college sports teams will be eliminated by 2030.
Riley Gaines had a good tweet about it yesterday - focused on swimming and diving but its coming for all non-revenue spots.