So we got 5 games left, that's a 16-game schedule. Plus SECT and a 64-team national title field. Questions:
Realistic shot that we win a title? I can't get too fired up unless that's on the table, similar to 207-2019 Shaffer-ball.
Do they do any of that weird total goal shlt? Or is it strictly who wins or loses the game?
With the style we play, unless we make some major mistakes, we're going to have a chance in every game we play, but we also have a chance to lose or tie every game we play. We're at our best when we can get a score early and settle into our defense, which is, humbly, world class. We have a legitimate chance to be regular season SEC champions. The conference tournament will be kind of a crap shoot. A rematch with Arkansas on a neutral field, for example, could have a different 1-0 outcome, but even so, we do have a decent chance of winning the SEC tournament.
Per the SEC soccer bylaws, there are no tiebreakers for conference champions, so even if we're tied for the lead at the end of the season, we'll be champions. You can go to page 101 to see the seeding tiebreakers. Yes, goal differential eventually comes into it.
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One interesting thing I noticed was that if we don't get to make up the game against SC, they take the per game points average (win=3, tie=1, loss=0) and use that to determine the conference champion and the tournament seeding.
I'm not quite as pessimistic as patdog in terms of our NCAA tournament chances, but he's not necessarily wrong either. I think we have the opportunity to make a deep run to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, but we'll probably have to upset at least one ACC team to make it happen.
NCAA RPI Top 15 by Power 4 conference:
ACC - 1 UNC, 2 WF, 8 Duke, 11 Stanford, 14 FSU, 15 UVA, 21 ND
Big Ten - 4 Mich St, 6 Penn St, 7 Iowa, 9 USCw, 12 Ohio St, 18 UCLA
Big 12 - 23 TCU
SEC - 3 State, 4 Ark, 10 Auburn, 20 USCe, 24 UK, 25 OU