Some interesting Baseball scores so far tonight
- Thread starter Dogpatrol
- Start date
Not a good night for the conference RPI
Bama bad loss- UAB RPI was 188
Tenn will be A bad loss- Tenn Tech RPI was in the 200s
LSU will be a bad loss- UL RPI was in the 50s
Vandy not a bad loss— but still not good.
Mizzou escaped.
Ole Miss game will come down to the wire.
Bama bad loss- UAB RPI was 188
Tenn will be A bad loss- Tenn Tech RPI was in the 200s
LSU will be a bad loss- UL RPI was in the 50s
Vandy not a bad loss— but still not good.
Mizzou escaped.
Ole Miss game will come down to the wire.
On the flip side, our midweek wins against UAB and UL look better now.
Tennessee’s RPI dropped all the way down to 38. Yeesh.
UL is a pretty good ball club. They probably make the post season. The UL closer struck out 3 in the 9th and has a wicked slider. The best hitter in the country Crews just had to shake his head and walk to the dugout.
Their rpi is 64 and their not in a power conference, I don’t disagree and even Kendall Rogers said they’ve put themselves in the at large bid conversations
however there are a few people on here that would disagree, however I do agree with tou
I don’t know about “probably”. They certainly can make the postseason, and aren’t a bad team. But right now all they have going for them is a decent conference record, which is a tad misleading because they went 6-0 against the 2 worst teams in the league and haven’t played the 2 best teams yet.
The Sun Belt is a pretty decent baseball league though. Better than the Big 10. But it’s hard to see them getting more than 2 at large bids though, and they may only get 1 depending on who wins their tournament and how things shake out the rest of the way. CCU and USM look like solid bets and it’s a jumbled mess behind them.
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Coastal is on track to host, USM could play themselves into that mix too, although they lost that game to LA Tech last night who isn’t very good this year, so that doesn’t help.
Absolutely. Those 2 are locks. And if a team besides those 2 wins the tourney they automatically become a 3-bid league. But past those two you have ODU and Troy who are on bubble and ULL who’s on the outside looking in. I don’t see more than one out of ULL, Troy, and ODU getting an at-large.
I will take anything at this point, even if it’s the 3 seed in Palo Alto, but if I wanted to be picky, getting shipped to Conway/Myrtle Beach wouldn’t be a bad deal at all. Coastal has a new-ish stadium that’s pretty nice.
all the speculation is fun, but need to give the RPI a rest for about another 2-3 weeks, and concentrate on earning wins inside conference.
Teams like (conf record):
Duke (9-8) 28 rpi
Ok St (8-7) 32 rpi
UNC (9-7) 34 rpi
UTSA (12-2) 39 rpi
UCLA and their (8-5-1 mark)
are all going to be very attractive and likely to get in over power schools with losing records in conference
But some of these smaller conference schools are going to get a piece of the pie:
Saying the SEC gets 9 at larges, ACC 7, Pac 12 4. Big 12 4--- and thats going low on both Pac12 and Big12:
Thats 24 of the 33 at large bids spoke for:
You can count on the Big10, BigWest, ConfUSA, Colonial, SunBelt, and Missouri Valley--- Who are all top 10 rated conferences-- and the others to get the remaining at large bids.
Teams like (conf record):
Duke (9-8) 28 rpi
Ok St (8-7) 32 rpi
UNC (9-7) 34 rpi
UTSA (12-2) 39 rpi
UCLA and their (8-5-1 mark)
are all going to be very attractive and likely to get in over power schools with losing records in conference
But some of these smaller conference schools are going to get a piece of the pie:
Saying the SEC gets 9 at larges, ACC 7, Pac 12 4. Big 12 4--- and thats going low on both Pac12 and Big12:
Thats 24 of the 33 at large bids spoke for:
You can count on the Big10, BigWest, ConfUSA, Colonial, SunBelt, and Missouri Valley--- Who are all top 10 rated conferences-- and the others to get the remaining at large bids.
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Basically we need to get into the top 10 of conferenece standings. Or be a game within the 10th spot. Win a game in the tournament, then hope our RPI stays high enough to be a tie breaker if it comes to it.
The UT loss midweek helps a ton, and the series again both them and Auburn are huge. Next two weeks you'll know whether or not we have a legitimate shot at getting in or not.
so 3-3 on the road over the next two weeks gives us a legitimate shot? I think so…
3-3 puts us 8-13 with 9 games to go. Still has us needing to do work, but keeps us alive.
Really need to be 4-2, it'll likely keep us above both UT and Auburn in the standings and give us a head to head tie breaker on both, and likely keep our RPI above both.
Im more about the conference standings than anything. We are currently in a 4 way tie for 9th with Auburn, UT, Mizzou. We dont play Mizzou this year, so the next two weekends gives us an opportunity to jump above the others in the standings. Also helps that Alabama is only at 6 wins (1 game up) and we have the series win over them as well.
So certainly in the conversation, but have to pile up some conference wins.
Latest D1 has State a 3 seed @ Wake Forest. https://d1baseball.com/projections/d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-week-10/
Great stuff: also only has the sec getting 10 teams. Looks like they opted to take Us and UT over Auburn and Mizzou
Also didnt even list Mizzou in the 1st 5 out, despite their RPI of 23.
Wonder if this was ready made for publish prior to the UT loss last night?
Also has UGA nowhere in the picture despite their top 30 RPI
Tells me very much. We need to get inside that top 10 conference wise. TCU getting a 2 seed with a 50 RPI, shows again to me that conference wins are going to be what trumps
Also didnt even list Mizzou in the 1st 5 out, despite their RPI of 23.
Wonder if this was ready made for publish prior to the UT loss last night?
Also has UGA nowhere in the picture despite their top 30 RPI
Tells me very much. We need to get inside that top 10 conference wise. TCU getting a 2 seed with a 50 RPI, shows again to me that conference wins are going to be what trumps
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We are in their Last 5 In, so firmly on the bubble for now. Wake is really good but I am just happy to see us in these projections given how we started conference play.
Beating a dead horse but it’s obvious how big this Auburn series is.
Yes, that would likely be a net positive for us.
I ran a few RPI simulations in Excel yesterday that primarily looked at a few things like how critical each remaining series was. I plan to update it based on midweek results and post more detail tomorrow, but the most critical remaining series was Arkansas. By that, I mean it was the largest range of outcomes RPI wise from going 3-0 vs. 0-3 (a delta of 23 spots in the rankings, if we played this weekend). A close second (tie) were the A&M and Auburn series at 21 spots each. LSU and Tennessee were the two that were the most forgiving. If we got swept by either of those two this weekend, we’d only drop about 5 spots, but could gain up to 12-13 spots if we swept them.
A rough baseline for how we could achieve a net positive RPI result from each series was as follows.:
Auburn - Win 2
UT - Win 1
Ark - Win 2
LSU - Win 1
A&M - Win 2
So yes, 3-3 would be a good target for the next 2 weekends. But the more the better, of course.
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