I want to say you take the ball first, but the screwy thing I can't account for is 4th downs for the second team getting the ball. You are essentially taking punting off the table for them and giving them an extra down if you score on the first possession (a TD is fine, a FG is as bad as a punt, IMO). At that point in the game, your defense has to be pretty gassed and now for every set of downs outside of FG range or the goal line, you are asking them to stop the offense on four consecutive plays; the very thing the league is setup to promote: passing QBs. Seems like you want to be the second team to get the ball if you are facing a dominant QB on the other side of the ball. Would like to see the stats.
Super Bowl LVIII, Chiefs - Niners, game thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
I was more pro active. I gave both kids their own UBER accounts in hs and told them since you’re not in a gang, the most likely way you’ll die in HS is get in a “bad” car. I also told them to get their bros home safe. To this day neither kid parties and drives.
Interesting points. The issue with overtime rule changes and not having a big data sample size is there no real analytics to draw from the new format. I would think having it second is a huge advantage for the reasons you mentioned as well as the ability to go for 2 to end the game could be your choice. Every third and short is a 2 down situation which means a bigger playbook as you know what you need to score. Hell even 3rd and long allows you to cut into that long yardage and half it if not more.
why 'has to go for 2'? couldnt you kick the xpt, ko, and go get a 3/4 and out?
All good points, which is why I don't think there is compelling reasoning on either side. I will still lean toward taking the ball first as getting a third possession is pretty significant, but I don't think it's black and white.
Going for 2 would give KC close to a 50% chance to win the game (maybe more like 48%). I am very confident that SF has better than a 52% chance to win by getting the ball back in a sudden death situation.
Good work, dad.
Yea, there is certainly a strong argument for electing to play defense and gaining the information on what you need to do on your drive...but I think it's slightly outweighed by taking the ball to get that potential 3rd possession. I'm just surprised at how many I've seen blasting the 49ers for taking the ball like it was some horrible decision. I think it's close enough though that in an outdoor game where wind could be a factor, I'd pick a side of the field to defend and let the other team decide who gets the ball.
Also, notice how we haven't heard a peep about the 49ers decision to go for it on 4th and 3 early in the 4th quarter that led to the touchdown? Had they failed, I'm sure Shanahan would have been blasted by the "anti-analytics" crowd thinking that he should have taken the points. But when moves like that work, no one ever brings them up again.
Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules
Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.
www.espn.com
Yikes. How is this possible? They should have known on their own, but Shanahan also should have had discussions about this before the playoffs even started.Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules
Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.
If in OT both teams score a TD on their first possession, can the team that had the ball first win with a FG on possession no 3? Seems like the other team should get a chance to win with a TD.
And he’s a helluva football player and she’s a mega super star.He exhibited some very juvenile behavior by running into his head coach during a tantrum.
Taylor Swift is equally immature.
These two kids might make it after all
why are you so confident? Heck they didnt even know the rules!!!
Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules
Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.
www.espn.com
to that end, I read where the Chiefs guy who scored the TD didnt know the game was over!Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules
Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.
On the 3rd possession, it's basically old OT rules (pre 2012 - 1st to score wins). That gives the team with the ball a decided edge. I don't have the numbers for the old NFL OT rules, but here is a breakdown using the new OT rules. Even with the new rules, winning the coin toss and getting the ball first is and advantage. If it is a sudden death situation, the win% has to increase.why are you so confident? Heck they didnt even know the rules!!!
Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules
Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.
where we differ is, I believe the game is played on grass by humans and emotion, not like a mutal fund, where past preformace does not indicate future results. The 49ers were horrible in third quarter, they werent great in the 4th though they did have 1 nice drive. so If I am AR do I want to win or lose a Superbowl on 1 low % play, or do I want to play more with some P behind me? I think I would kick and trust my D to go stop them on a 3 and out. Get the ball on O , kick a FG to win.
now if you said line up for the 2 pt play but try to get them to jump so you get the ball at the 1 1/2, I'd be all over that. If they dont jump take the delay and kick the XP.
drive chart
Super Bowl Drive Chart
San FranciscoFirst QuarterTimeTimeTimeBallDriveNo.Yds.YdsNet1stLastGivenNoRecdLostPossObtainBeganPlyGainPenYdsDwnScrmUp115:0012:152:45KickoffSF255480483KC29Fumble210:166:253:48PuntSF24436-20161SF40…
www.sandiegouniontribune.com
OMG, this again? This is an old school football cliche which has zero validity.where we differ is, I believe the game is played on grass by humans and emotion,
Super Bowl Drive Chart
San FranciscoFirst QuarterTimeTimeTimeBallDriveNo.Yds.YdsNet1stLastGivenNoRecdLostPossObtainBeganPlyGainPenYdsDwnScrmUp115:0012:152:45KickoffSF255480483KC29Fumble210:166:253:48PuntSF24436-20161SF40…
So, game planning during the previous week has no impact? Half time adjustments don't factor in? Coordinator calls from the box mean nothing? Stop with the football is exclusively played on the field; there are so many other factors that do not occur on the field. Football is as much of a chess match as a gladiator contest. I'm obviously not going to change your mind, so I'll just leave it with this. Andy was going to do it regardless of how the game was playing out.
“We talked through this for two weeks,” Kansas City defensive lineman Chris Jones told The Ringer. “How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.”
I thought maybe his rationale for taking the ball first in OT was because the Chiefs Defense looked tired. But never give Mahomes the final shot.
This is probably the answer. Give Mahomes the ball first. Let him score his TD or field goal. On the off chance you force a punt or a turnover, pop the champagne. Once you get the ball, give your QB as many downs as possible to score the TD by constantly going for it on 4th down. Once you get the TD, go for two and the win. You have a gassed defense and a very short field to score. If you miss, Mahomes was probably going to walk down the field and score the second time he got the ball anyway.
I guess then they better stop all beer commercials, food commercials or anything else anyone can get an addiction too.
As an aside I don't like the constant cutaways to Jerry Jones in the box, or Dan Persa's mother in Beaver stadium (Old folks alert) but I don't blame them since they aren't running the cameras.
I didnt say anything about games planes, half time adjustments (which 90% of the time is just adjusting your chin strap, and throwing out half the crap you thought of Thursday night) , they are all factors and part of football but saying 'Going for 2 would give KC close to a 50% chance to win the game (maybe more like 48%). I am very confident that SF has better than a 52% chance to win by getting the ball back in a sudden death situation.' is a bunch of crap, and that is what I think is a joke, and you can stick all those % up your ***. As I said , its not a mutal fund, at least they say past performacne is not an indicator of further results. . You dont know if SF is going to drive anywhere, they could jump off sides again as they did in the 4th. I am glad KC said they a least thought about it ahead of time. I am suprised the D was all for it, 'whats wrong coach, no confidence in us?'
you are correct you wont change my mind, n I doubt I' ll change yours.
I think Brandon Staley over use of anayltics got him fired.
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Those %'s mean a lot to those of us that get involved in the live betting markets...and also have a lot of value to coaches that understand the numbers. I just don't understand how some can completely ignore them since "it's not mutual funds", or thinking momentum means so much more than it does.
The “back in my day” posts are usually the best. Yeah back in your day you ran the ball 80% of the time. These folks sound like Bobby Bouche’s Mom….Those Analytics are the Devil!!!! Getting a % advantage or at least knowing them is every single HC's job now in the NFL and college....if they aren't using them they are idiots and will not last long. Like you said they are used in every single sport that has some type of bankroll to it....to argue against using them at this point in time is like being a flat earther. That is what you're up against.
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You said football was play on grass. Game plans and adjustments are not made on grass. The notion that you can't use strategy and statistics in a sporting event is absolutely foolish. In any almost any sort of game, game theory can be applied. This is not debatable.
Again, Andy Reid had pre-determined that he was going to defer in OT and go for 2 for the win -without knowing any of the game situation. So, you are against 3 time super bowl champ Big Red on this one.
Analytics didn't get Staley fired. Being a bad coach got him fired.
Jerry Jones was slamming 12 oz beers? But hey, at age 34, she can still chug a bear, beat Blake Lively and hang with Ice Spice while doing hand signals.
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Sounds like the Fun Police are ready to make an arrest...
Yes like going for it at his own 25 on 4-2 when the analytics said he had a 55% chance of making it. That’s why he was a bad coach
Because you play the game on grass does not mean you don’t practice, scheme look at tendencies etc. computer scouting been around a long time
But every article I’ve seen so far says this situation has not occurred before, So who knows what to do
But to say they had a 48% chance on a 2 pt play and SF would just match down the field and score, is just naive
Says the guy who is fake upset at an adult partying at the Super Bowl......but anyone that knows your posting history....knows where this round of feaux outrage comes from.
She's having fun with her friends at the Super Bowl...I'd say that anyone that has an issue with what she did might be the one overreacting.
This statement clearly indicates that you are not understanding what I said. And Andy Reid clearly disagrees with you, but what does he know.
Who said that "SF would just march down the field and score"? But it should be obvious to anyone that should SF get the ball back there, the chances of them winning are > 50% (and hence, the real reason why KC would likely go for 2 if both teams matched touchdowns).
I did that for my kids in college…I think high school is too young to encourage it. Neither of my kids party either.
Abusive drinking is a choice. I used to drink like crazy in my younger days, came from a family with a history of alcoholism…cut way down when my kids were born and very rarely have a drink these days. What celebrities did never had an effect on me. I chose not to let it become a problem and I easily could have gone down a different path.
GG did , and you said the same thing, so explain to me why if they get the ball back their chances of winning are > 50%? because there are only 2 teams?
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