I can't even understand what you're trying to say...are you really questioning the premise that in an NFL overtime game, the team taking possession of the ball has a better than 50/50 chance to win the game? They have enough of an advantage that the NFL found the need to change the rules, and then change the rules again because they still hadn't done enough to help that "other" team.
Super Bowl LVIII, Chiefs - Niners, game thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Blaming celebrities people are told not to like is a cop out....just like blaming rock and roll was BS...just like blaming rap still is today. Your immediate surroundings dictate a hell of a lot more than any celebrity action for most intelligent kids. The same guy in another thread is listing classic rock bands that all dabbled in substance abuse so by his own logic he should be a junky?
where is that stat? regular season or playoffs? and I am not even sure why that's relevant to this game. Its like the mutual fund example. My defense is stopping them
Try this. In the playoffs from 2010-2021 there were 12 overtime games. Teak receiving the opening kickoff in overtime went 10-2. Scroll to end.
No I certainly did not say that. Your statement of "SF marching down the field" implies a 100% chance of victory, which is not at all what I said. It just has to have a higher success rate than KC missing the 2pt conversion to make it an easy decision for KC.
I already posted the OT data showing that teams getting the ball 1st in OT are 86-97-10 under CURRENT rules. That win% is going to go up under the old OT rules, which is essentially what SF would have been looking at if both teams had scored a TD with the XP.
sorry I didnt mean to put words in your mouth, apologies. That said I dont care about past stats, all I know is making a must have win/lose 2 pt play is very very difficult. So difficult, imo that I would take my chances extending the game. Now you keep taking about AR who I love and respect, and his plans, I think that is because this is the first year since Jim Johnson he has anything close to a D, and he still might not trust them.
We're talking about professional athletes who are the best in the world at their sport. It shouldn't be any more difficult than the ~50% probability that I've speculated.
If you are a proponent of game flow and situation, let's examine from a different perspective. In this situation, SF would driven the field and scored a TD in OT on your defense. Your team now has driven the field and scored a TD. You have SF defense on their heels and you have Mahomes, arguably one of the greatest QBs of all time and you have all of your 2 point plays available. If you kick the XP, you are going to put your tired defense back on the field against SF who has already scored a TD in OT. And now all they have to do is get from the ~20yd line to the ~35yd line (45 total yards) to have a good shot at winning. And they are probably going for it on 4th down once they get to their own 45.
You just we drove the field for a TD so the D shouldn’t be tired
The Chiefs just used their best 2 pt
They only have so many and limited time to rep
There are lots of things that could go wrong on the play. The Chiefs C had low snaps all game. Their tackles had a hard time holding up especially in a confined space of the goal line. Lots could go wrong
heck my D could pick off Purdy and run it back. As I said I don’t don’t want to lose a Super Bowl on 1 play
And lots could go wrong on the defensive side of the ball. Look at the last SF play in OT. The DB fell down and Aiyuk was wide open. These cancel out.
Lots of things could go right too.
They would change directions after the 15 minute quarter.
Super Bowl LVIII most-watched TV program ever
Super Bowl LVIII was the most-watched program in television history, with an average of 123.7 million viewers tuning in to the Chiefs' 25-22 overtime win versus the 49ers.
www.espn.com
"Some of the increase can be attributed to a change in the way viewers are counted. Nielsen began including out-of-home viewers in its ratings in 2020, but only from limited markets. That measurement expanded to all 50 states beginning this year."Super Bowl LVIII most-watched TV program ever
Super Bowl LVIII was the most-watched program in television history, with an average of 123.7 million viewers tuning in to the Chiefs' 25-22 overtime win versus the 49ers.
So is that like counting people in bars watching the game? How do they do that? Is it like a standard polling where they take a representative sample and extrapolate?
Chiefs would have gone for two, if teams had traded touchdowns in overtime
Kyle Shanahan wanted a third OT possession; the Chiefs didn't plan on letting one happen.
www.nbcsports.com
This thinking by SF is a perfect illustration of overthinking football strategy by these “brilliant” coaches. SF takes the ball first so that they have the first chance with the ball during sudden death. Having the ball first during sudden death is a huge advantage, so this strategy makes perfect sense to the analytics nerds.Chiefs would have gone for two, if teams had traded touchdowns in overtime
Kyle Shanahan wanted a third OT possession; the Chiefs didn't plan on letting one happen.
The problem is that you have a very low chance of the game ever getting to sudden death. As pointed out in the article, KC was going for 2 if they got a TD after a SF TD. So the only way that game goes to sudden death is if neither team scores on its first possession, or if both teams score a FG on their first possession.
Meanwhile, getting the ball second at the beginning of a two-possession OT is its own huge advantage, with the team going on defense first having a 100% chance of having that advantage.
But SF overthought the situation, as is commonly done in the age of analytics.
Not to argue with you but it seems to me that the problem stemmed from SF not realizing that KC would have gone for two if they got the ball second in overtime. That is, SF under thought the situation. Going forward the coin toss winner is going to defer 100% of the time, and will 100% go for two if they’re down a TD. Good analysis here, appreciated.
Disagree completely…as @Grant Green and I discussed, I’d definitely take the ball first again tomorrow. I have an issue with the logic of saying “So the only way that game goes to sudden death is if neither team scores on its first possession”…that’s discounting two very common scenarios of ending the first two possessions. There is still a very big advantage to potentially getting that third possession.
If Belichick had been coaching, his intel would have known KC's overtime preferences.
I think most teams will go for two in that situation. They would have driven the ball down the field for a TD against a tired defense in OT. Better to go for two there than take your chances in sudden death while relying on your own tired defense. It is a pretty obvious strategy that SF didn’t recognize, and some here still don’t accept for some reason.
Barnwell did a good piece breaking down the playoff OT decision in depth…
www.espn.com
Justice for Kyle Shanahan? Barnwell's guide to every NFL playoff overtime angle
The Chiefs wanted the ball second in overtime in the Super Bowl. The 49ers wanted the ball first -- and got it. Did Kyle Shanahan really make the wrong call?
www.espn.com
I’m seeing a lot of shade being thrown George Kittle’s way, for not having his head in the game. Seems justified.
About what I expected. Not a huge edge either way, but to say that Shanahan was foolish to take the ball first is not right. Interesting that he said he would take the ball first in a low scoring game and second in a high scoring game. Makes sense.Barnwell did a good piece breaking down the playoff OT decision in depth…
Justice for Kyle Shanahan? Barnwell's guide to every NFL playoff overtime angle
The Chiefs wanted the ball second in overtime in the Super Bowl. The 49ers wanted the ball first -- and got it. Did Kyle Shanahan really make the wrong call?
BTW, since this came up earlier in this thread: "Remember that from 1994 to 2011, when NFL teams were able to win in overtime by kicking a field goal and without needing to give the opposition another possession, teams that won the coin toss won the game nearly 60% of the time."
Had SF scored a TD on their first possession, KC would be foolish to not go for 2 on theirs.
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