Under the current recruiting and coaching, do we all agree that 10-2 is the absolute ceiling?

marshall23

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More importantly, how low is the floor? 4-8? 3-9? 0-12? Let’s thoroughly burn the sh|t box down to the ground and hire Matt Rhule.
We're only 63 million dollars away from our goal! I'd love to see Matt here if for no other reason than to see how long it is until the BWICAC has to help him coach.
 

s1uggo72

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we need to change our model. I think many schools do as well. Eliminate all the 'analysts', take their salaries and buy players via NIL. Buy the best QB you can find, start there. There is no reason we can not compete with OSU, the money $$$$$ factor has been taken out of the game.
 

marshall23

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Fire Franklin. WE need a better recruiter:rolleyes:
WE DESERVE BETTER
Tired of settling for guys like Allar, Allen, Singleton, Sutton, Carter etc
 
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psugo

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That's actually a good question. Problem is that once it sets in that PSU won't contend for championships, recruiting will deteriorate. At that point, both the ceiling and floor lower. How long does it take? No idea.
 

psugo

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And more often than not, 8-4 is likely. Is that just the way it's going to be, year after year after year?

We all have to admit that taking a lead into the 4th quarter, only to see the defense absolutely shredded by mediocre QBs, is getting very, very tedious.
no
 
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bdgan

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And more often than not, 8-4 is likely. Is that just the way it's going to be, year after year after year?

We all have to admit that taking a lead into the 4th quarter, only to see the defense absolutely shredded by mediocre QBs, is getting very, very tedious.
I think it depends on if we can get players to stay. A senior laden team has a chance to win the BiG.

Who would have won the OSU game if we had players like Dotson at WR or Brooks/Smith at LB.
 
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Got GSPs

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No, it’s not the absolute ceiling. It’s the non-stretch goal. We’ve beaten Michigan a few times and tOSU once. I’d say that when the recruiting stars align, we have a shot at 11 or even 12 wins, I’d say that would be a once every four years or so spike though.
 

marshall23

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I think it depends on if we can get players to stay. A senior laden team has a chance to win the BiG.

Who would have won the OSU game if we had players like Dotson at WR or Brooks/Smith at LB.
First round draft choices aren't staying in college ever. Now the 4 round or later types.....they of course in most cases should stay. But, in fairness, they have lots of people in their ear. Everyone if going to star in the NFL and make millions......and when they don't they blame Franklin and PSU. LOL
 

bdgan

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First round draft choices aren't staying in college ever. Now the 4 round or later types.....they of course in most cases should stay. But, in fairness, they have lots of people in their ear. Everyone if going to star in the NFL and make millions......and when they don't they blame Franklin and PSU. LOL
Agree, but PSU has had more than it's fair share of 4th round kids departing early. I'm not questioning their decisions. I'm just saying that the best chance for PSU to beat teams like OSU is to have a bunch of 4* seniors play against OSU's 4*/5* sophomores.
 

Psu00

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The good news is that in 4 years (maybe sooner), a 10-2 record could still get you into the tournament. The not-so-good news is that by that time, Franklin's game management may not improve. As much as we dislike his game results, etc, we do have to be careful not to become a Nebraska where we run off a coach that can win 9-10 games a year in place of a series of misfits causing us to wish for a 9-win season. Now...Nebraska has a lot more challenges when it comes to recruiting but who's to say that new staffs wouldn't lead us down that same road? But again, someday, 10-2 will be good enough and then we'll get to rail on Franklin for never being able to get out of the first round, despite having home games (won't that be wild if it happens -- a playoff game in December in Beaver Stadium?).
I wouldn’t be so sure. By then USC and UCLA will be in the conference. Right now Penn State is falling in as #3 in the conference. Drop behind USC or a West division team like Wisky and all bets are off. The 4th place Big Ten team will not make the playoff most years.
 

MacNit

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I would say yes at this point 10-2 is the ceiling. JF does have a chance to change that. He has the #1 recruits for QB and RB on the roster and some very good OL coming in. They do have a chance to be very good. To me they need to also bring in big DL in the middle. Until he proves he can do it, 10-2 is the ceiling. Question is are the administration, alumni, students, fans good with that? It's big money he is making, comes down to what people think is a successful program.
Those RBs will be long gone b4 the incoming lineman play a significant down. And there are not nearly enough of them.
 

MacNit

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None of US are competing with the big boys.....some of US have never competed.
So if you have “competed” is one qualified to have a discussion here? Or do you still need to be basking in the glow of Franklin blowing smoke your skirt at some coaches clinic for high school special team coaching assistants?
 
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Classof09

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So if you have “competed” is one qualified to have a discussion here? Or do you still need to be basking in the glow of Franklin blowing smoke your skirt at some coaches clinic for high school special team coaching assistants?
If I could, I’d give you 50 ‘likes’. That guy is a joke, @MacNit. No sense arguing with him. He knows everything. Just read all his posts. About 40 in every thread.
 
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marshall23

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So if you have “competed” is one qualified to have a discussion here? Or do you still need to be basking in the glow of Franklin blowing smoke your skirt at some coaches clinic for high school special team coaching assistants?
You should never talk smack about a position you aren't qualified to fill.
 

CyphaPSU

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Depends on how the 10-2 is constructed. I can see OSU being an auto-loss as we look at each season, but I certainly hope UM is not automatically factored into one of those two losses. In terms of recruited talent, we should theoretically go back-and-forth with UM (sadly, we haven't). Also, we always seem to find a way to lose to teams that we are more talented than. So, I could see a scenario in which expectations could be 10-2 that includes losses to OSU and "somebody else."

The real test for the 2022 version of Penn State, however, is can we finish the regular season without another blemish, without losing to a team we have the edge in talent against? Because in years past, this has been a major achilles heel.

Given that we've already lost to UM and OSU, and noting how there has been a trend in recent seasons for the wheels to start coming off after big game loses, I would view finishing this season at 10-2 as real progress. I want to see some actual resiliency and perseverance that have been missing since perhaps 2016. Avoid a letdown loss. Get into the NY6 conversation. It starts with how they play tomorrow.
 
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bdgan

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No, it’s not the absolute ceiling. It’s the non-stretch goal. We’ve beaten Michigan a few times and tOSU once. I’d say that when the recruiting stars align, we have a shot at 11 or even 12 wins, I’d say that would be a once every four years or so spike though.
PSU has recruited as well as UM over the last several years according to the rankings. That tells me we should be winning half of those games, not 1/3 of them.
 

Got GSPs

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PSU has recruited as well as UM over the last several years according to the rankings. That tells me we should be winning half of those games, not 1/3 of them.
Beating Michigan isn’t as hard as beating tOSU, and then trying to do both in the same year.
 

sayflip9

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Next 2 years will be either be the explosion of PSU Football into a national contender or the blow up into a rebuild.
 

PSUSignore

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Beating Michigan isn’t as hard as beating tOSU, and then trying to do both in the same year.
The challenge is we seem to recruit in an effort to match OSU, favoring athletes over big bodies, and it's been working considering how we've competed better against them than most other programs. UM has gone back to smash mouth physical football and many teams don't have the big bodies to match up with that style, PSU included. It's a copycat and cyclical world. With UM making the playoffs last season, and having a shot to do it again if they beat OSU this year, you're going to see that style of football increase in popularity in the conference again and teams will start to build a roster that way. And then someone will switch back to having athletes when everyone's roster is big, physical and slow, and they'll start excelling due to being "built" differently. It all goes in circles.
 
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Got GSPs

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I agree, but we should be beating Michigan half the time based upon recruiting rankings.
In quality control (statistical process control), we have something called assignable cause. Meaning, a given manufacturing process will have a certain normal output. When you detect a shift in the manufacturing process, you determine whether there was an assignable cause (new, poorly trained employee, defective components, etc.) or the process itself has shifted.

If resources, coaching, and recruiting are similar, then we should expect to split victories with Michigan. If something like the sanctions happen, it’s obviously not representative of the normal routine process. This would be an assignable cause. Few people would argue this. The question is whether we chalk up 2020 and 2021 as having assignable causes due to Covid-19. Certainly the pandemic was in Michigan too, but I’ve seen many reports that it impacted Penn State worse than others (maybe self inflicted).

once you separate the assignable cause losses, our record should be the same given equal recruiting. If recruiting is similar then coaching would be responsible for any difference. I think there is a slight skew because Michigan has built based upon a foundation of O and D lines while Penn State seems to have valued skill players more... or at least has recruited skill positions better.
 

Pennoyer

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And more often than not, 8-4 is likely. Is that just the way it's going to be, year after year after year?

We all have to admit that taking a lead into the 4th quarter, only to see the defense absolutely shredded by mediocre QBs, is getting very, very tedious.
If you think CJ Stroud is a mediocre college QB, you are the dumbest football fan on the planet. And that’s saying a lot.
 

psugo

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Seriously? PSU led with 9 minutes remaining in the game. You don't think a deep threat at WR 2nd team all BiG) and a proven LB (3rd team all BiG) would have made a difference?
I think if we have a third team all big ten right tackle we win the game. You can blame the loss on turnovers, but they were caused by pressure on Clifford. O-line not quite good enough in the fourth quarter.
 

bdgan

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I think if we have a third team all big ten right tackle we win the game. You can blame the loss on turnovers, but they were caused by pressure on Clifford. O-line not quite good enough in the fourth quarter.
I agree that OL didn't do the job in the last 9 minutes but I'd like to think a 6th year QB would hold up better in those situations.
 
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