What just happened in the market?

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Apr 7, 2025
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Did anyone honestly expect this to turn out much different than this? Everyone always freaks out over Trump's bluffs and blustering, and then it usually turns out OK. There's a lot of reasons to not like Trump, but his economics and foreign policy aren't two of them.
Watch out. Talking good about trump might get some of these feathers ruffled.
 
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I said in a locked thread that the tariffs would not be in place a month from now. I was wrong, since I should have said a week.

Is there any reason Trump could not have accomplished the same goal without tanking our markets first and freaking everyone out? Just threaten tariffs and open the lines of communication?

Heck, he has both houses of Congress; just introduce tariff legislation so it's all legal, and negotiate while the bill is pending.
you could argue tanking the market was part of the negotiation and not necessarily a terrible thing. Market corrections are good especially when its so inflated.
 
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My answer to this - if I was a Trump spokesperson - would be that bluffs don't really work well when the opposing player knows you're bluffing.

Seems to me that (Trump's thinking is that) he had to follow through with it, to show China he was serious. You can only say "Just watch me, I'll DO IT" so many times before it becomes obvious that you're not really going to do it.
Dont bring logic into this.
 
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It doesn't look like anything we've ever done before.

The other ways got us $36.7 TRILLION in debt.

That seems a bit assclown to me. Also cuntshit stupid.
Nah man running up so much debt that we can't pay it and then getting mad about cutting stupid spending is way better than doing something different.

Do i need sarcasteriks?
 
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Our economy and position in the world has been fine. We're in debt bc Congress (both sides) loves to spend money but not tax people enough to pay for it. That's what happens when you allow it to be a career via no term limits and corrupted by corporate donations. Congress is a business venture not a civic institution that makes adult and responsible decisions.

You could argue that much of our debt is from war and world policing/influence. And you'd be right. But we should have thought about how to finance that on the front end instead of potentially crapping on the entire global economic order in the process in an unclear attempt to get it back. That seems like a self own - unless you're a wealthy person that has never been laid off or struggled through recession. They preach "temporary pain/long term gain" but won't have to live through it. They'll come out wealthier somehow while normies have to suffer through it for them.
No we are in debt b/c we think we can tax people and spend on whatever we want.

We spend too much. Its been proven. We should start taxing less in about 5 to 10 years if we do the smart thing but we wont.
 
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ckDOG

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That’s exactly why he backed down, and make no mistake, he backed down. It didn’t hurt that he and his buddies probably made a TON of money the last few days.
Cynical side of me says this is what's going on. Optimistic side hopes that 4D genius backed his way into better trade agreements between us and most everyone but China. I don't want my cynicism to prove right on this one. It will mean a very painful future for the American economy.
 

Podgy

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I believe this is 17-D chess**
It's 18-D chess. If you want to know what's going on, read Catturd on X or the Hodge Twins. They're the smartest, most well-read people I know discussing politics and the economy.

Who really knows what's going on? Trump's first term was fine but he didn't promote some radical economic agenda. He also spent bigly and drove up the debt and deficit. But , there's really no major constituency for debt reduction today because the biggest drivers are social security and Medicare. We'll need a crisis before anyone does anything about it. And to think we had a surplus on Sept 10, 2001 and the national debt was $5 trillion and declining.

Dems seem pretty inept. I watched Sen Schumer and Hironi on the news complain about tariffs while the stock ticker showed market increases. What a couple of genuine duds as leaders of the opposition. No wonder Dems lost. And Dems pretty much handpicked Kamala, a genuinely weak candidate, to oppose Trump.

And look at what you ideologically-driven bastards did by opening the border to anyone claiming asylum, telling us to learn new pronouns, claiming a woman can have hairy testicles and that kids should get their genitals cut off in the name of gender affirming care, letting crime run rampant in cities, wanting to defund the police and claiming America is a white supremacist hellhole. That's how we ended up going back to Trump, America and the world's crazy ex-girlfriend. Buckle up. He ain't gonna suddenly start behaving differently

I genuinely prefer my political leaders to run the country quietly and without fanfare. I don't need someone insulting the opposition or doing crazy things to feel good about myself or laugh and say go get 'em. Anyone center left or center right not doing crazy shite economically or culturally is generally fine with me.
 
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MSUDAWGFAN

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An economy can absolutely take years to turn.
Obama inherited a shitsandwich and it took years to turn around. I think it would have taken years, regardless of who sat in the Oval Office.
This economy was doing quite well when Obama left office. You can claim otherwise, but well accepted metrics dont support your claim.

The economy under Trump was doing quite well too, though economy and markets were too frequently confused for one another when it was pointed out how well the economy was doing.

I dont blame Trump for the economy and markets crashing due to covid.
And I dont blame the economy and markets slowly recovering under Biden.
I also dont blame Biden for inflation since inflation was a global issue for a couple years. Global.

Reality is that one president does inherit what the prior president had.

If the US economy is cookin along in 1 year and I think it is because of Trump, hell yes I will credit him. I will likely still wonder if he could have gotten to that place without total chaos and lies/doublespeak, but I will give him credit for getting us there, if we are there because of him.
So let me get this straight - the low gas prices under Trump were due to Obama and the high gas prices under Biden were due to Trump? Do I have that right?
 
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Why threaten tariffs at all? Why not threaten the removal of US aid to foreign countries and of the US withdrawing from treaties like NATO? One hurts US citizens first and foremost, and the other doesn't.
I would imagine it comes down to what he thought he could get away with without congress. Did you see how people lost their mind over USAID?
 
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That would be true if Trump was trying to balance the budget or cut spending, but in his first term, he put the country deeper in debt with deficit spending and he’s on that path now with what he wants to do with the budget. It will put the country even more deeper into debt, so I’m nearly not sure that Trump is any different then Obama or Biden as far as spending goes.

And I know you’re going to point at the doge cuts, but those are really just drops in the bucket.
Definitely drops in the bucket but there is plenty there to cut if people would get on board.
 
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His claims on what a tariff is and what a subsidy is make me question his basic grasp on economics.
His approach of going extreme to cause chaos then backing off or pivoting to what he can get and claiming that was what he wanted all along makes me question how effective his foreign policy is.

You say it usually turns out OK. None of this should be viewed as OK. He has created absolute chaos on a global level and 17ed with people's livelihood and retirement when none of it was likely necessary.
well the results speak for themselves up to this point.

term one his foreign record and economic record was phenomenal.

maybe we can wait and judge in him in a year or two on term 2? or did you just now start worrying about inflation?
 
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Trump gonna pull off an awesome bait and switch and I'm actually here for it. He's gonna dupe the MAGAs and the rest of the planet into thinking we are going to enter into a generation of protectionism but when it all settles out we will have more free trade and closer/quicker markets than before - except China gets 17ed. Everybody wins except the people that think high headcount factories are coming back. I feel bad for those folks and we have to come up with ways to keep them employed and happy in the future but those low tech / high labor days are gone (not in all applications but enough where you can't build a healthy resilient economy around it). The world is changing and we are either going to participate or die a long slow death.
there are plenty of "MAGAs" who dont want "protectionism".

I want free trade up to the point it doesnt affect national security. China affects national security.
 
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mstateglfr

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Cynical side of me says this is what's going on. Optimistic side hopes that 4D genius backed his way into better trade agreements between us and most everyone but China. I don't want my cynicism to prove right on this one. It will mean a very painful future for the American economy.
What does your realistic side say?
 

ckDOG

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No we are in debt b/c we think we can tax people and spend on whatever we want.

We spend too much. Its been proven. We should start taxing less in about 5 to 10 years if we do the smart thing but we wont.
Frankly, I'm tired of you people that think only one side of a P&L is important. It's made quite a career for two political parties hell bent on ignoring reality. You must manage both side of the equation. Endless spending isn't the answer just like trickle down piss on my head and tell me it's raining isn't either. But it's the answer that most people don't want to hear so politicians have made off handsomely taking advantage of that fact.

Democrats don't want to upset people that rely on government spending. Republicans don't want to upset the billionaire class with taxes to pay for their commitments and are now saying we even need some pain in our lives to make things better. I'm tired of people telling me they either need more government to make their lives better and rich people telling me it has no role whatsoever because they might have to settle for a Viking 72 instead of the 90 if we want a balanced budget around here.
 
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QuaoarsKing

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My question was if the economy is doing really well in a year would you give Trump the credit since so many are blaming him now.
Of course I will. Just like I'll admit I was wrong about Chris Lemonis if he turns it around and wins another national title this June.
 

MSUDAWGFAN

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Of course I will. Just like I'll admit I was wrong about Chris Lemonis if he turns it around and wins another national title this June.
So please give an objective measure for success. I'm not talking about a 30% year over year rise in GDP. Something realistic. Like real wages rising 5-10% for the middle class like they did in his first term (it was 9% until the pandemic hit)

Are you saying that unless Lemonis wins another natty he is a failure? I know it isn't going to happen now but what of we hosted a Super? I would think that would be successful. Or are you setting the bar so high you won't give Trump any credit at all?
 
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thatsbaseball

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Frankly, I'm tired of you people that think only one side of a P&L is important. It's made quite a career for two political parties hell bent on ignoring reality. You must manage both side of the equation. Endless spending isn't the answer just like trickle down piss on my head and tell me it's raining isn't either. But it's the answer that most people don't want to hear so politicians have made off handsomely taking advantage of that fact.

Democrats don't want to upset people that rely on government spending. Republicans don't want to upset the billionaire class with taxes to pay for their commitments and are now saying we even need some pain in our lives to make things better. I'm tired of people telling me they either need more government to make their lives better and rich people telling me it has no role whatsoever because they might have to settle for a Viking 72 instead of the 90 if we want a balanced budget around here.
 
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ckDOG

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What's your point? We think Kamala/Dems were going trickle down and support lower taxes for the wealthy? Much more likely it was to avoid the exact chaos we've seen this week and leading up to it. Billionaires like 2 things along with their money: 1) predictability in the markets and 2) convincing people they shouldn't pay high taxes so they can give us schmucks better lives. Some advancing to a third more recently: "you schmucks should sacrifice for a better future".
 
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Holy shat, you are creating an argument that rationalizes a president tanking markets.
That is not an acceptable thing for a president to do.
What about a president who is a walking corpse?

what about one who creates artificiall Inflated markets?

fixing trade and national security issues are 100% acceptable for the president to do.
 
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Frankly, I'm tired of you people that think only one side of a P&L is important. It's made quite a career for two political parties hell bent on ignoring reality. You must manage both side of the equation. Endless spending isn't the answer just like trickle down piss on my head and tell me it's raining isn't either. But it's the answer that most people don't want to hear so politicians have made off handsomely taking advantage of that fact.

Democrats don't want to upset people that rely on government spending. Republicans don't want to upset the billionaire class with taxes to pay for their commitments and are now saying we even need some pain in our lives to make things better. I'm tired of people telling me they either need more government to make their lives better and rich people telling me it has no role whatsoever because they might have to settle for a Viking 72 instead of the 90 if we want a balanced budget around here.
I don’t give a $h1t about upsetting the billionaire class.

but it’s a fact they pay the overwhelming majority of taxes in this country. FACT.

they also invest a ton of money. Investment drives growth.

I don’t want zero taxes. But the government has plenty of 17ing money right now. They need less and they need to be more efficient.

I can prove that. If even $1 goes to something like DEI overseas or trans oversees, it’s $1 too much. I could make that argument for in the country as well.

how about EBT? I’m not saying it’s not NEEDED but it should be a NEED. Cokes, chips, sweets, etc aren’t needs.

we could be so much more transparent about where the money goes but they don’t want transparency bc if they had it, they’d look like crooks BOTH SIDES.
 
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mstateglfr

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What about a president who is a walking corpse?

what about one who creates artificiall Inflated markets?

fixing trade and national security issues are 100% acceptable for the president to do.
Bud, you justified a president intentionally crash markets.
There is no whataboutism that brings you back from such an insane justification.

The only response from you should be 'yeah, that was dumb. A president clearly has no right or power to intentionally crash markets'.
 
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Of course I will. Just like I'll admit I was wrong about Chris Lemonis if he turns it around and wins another national title this June.
So why not wait until he’s in office for maybe at least 6 months?

I didn’t hear any of you blaming Biden for inflation did i?
 

Dawgzilla2

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you could argue tanking the market was part of the negotiation and not necessarily a terrible thing. Market corrections are good especially when its so inflated.
Maybe we were due for a market correction...but are you really saying you think POTUS should intentionally take steps to cause one? The President shouldn't even have that type of power, and if he does he sure shouldn't use it.
 
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Bud, you justified a president intentionally crash markets.
There is no whataboutism that brings you back from such an insane justification.

The only response from you should be 'yeah, that was dumb. A president clearly has no right or power to intentionally crash markets'.
I’ll wait on your “yeah Biden was a walking dead man who drove up inflation”.

until then you are still a moron.
 
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Maybe we were due for a market correction...but are you really saying you think POTUS should intentionally take steps to cause one? The President shouldn't even have that type of power, and if he does he sure shouldn't use it.
The market dropping wasn’t the cause. It was the reaction. All presidents do things that have positive and negative consequences.

do I think or want trump or any president to tank the market? No. Do I care about a some short term pain for long term positives? No.

I mean I loved my investment growth under Biden, but long term it wasn’t good for markets and the USA.
 
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bolddogge

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He didnt bluff, but a week later he put a pause on tariffs(except China), despite recently claiming dozens of countries were ready to bend the knee.
I am sure some here will be able to spin that into a win that makes sense to them, but the rest of us will just be standing here confused and empty handed.
Keep pressure on China while letting the remainder of the world to know he's serious and allowing them time to hammer out new trade agreements. That seems reasonable.
 
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SanfordRJones

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I don’t give a $h1t about upsetting the billionaire class.

but it’s a fact they pay the overwhelming majority of taxes in this country. FACT.

they also invest a ton of money. Investment drives growth.

I don’t want zero taxes. But the government has plenty of 17ing money right now. They need less and they need to be more efficient.

I can prove that. If even $1 goes to something like DEI overseas or trans oversees, it’s $1 too much. I could make that argument for in the country as well.

how about EBT? I’m not saying it’s not NEEDED but it should be a NEED. Cokes, chips, sweets, etc aren’t needs.

we could be so much more transparent about where the money goes for a small tiny snout of money but they don’t want transparency bc if they had it, they’d look like crooks BOTH SIDES.

All those things make great boogeymen, but they're a drop in the bucket. That stuff should absolutely be cut, but it won't make a dent. They have to cut things like Medicare and military spending. Nobody in office now is going to do that, though, because it is guaranteed to get them voted out of office.
 

Anon1717806835

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you could argue tanking the market was part of the negotiation and not necessarily a terrible thing. Market corrections are good especially when its so inflated.
I would argue that tanking the market as part of the negotiation would be a monumentally dumbass thing to do.....so you might be on to something.....

Edited to add - that would not be a market correction, as market corrections are driven by, well the market - not tomfoolery.
 
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mstateglfr

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Keep pressure on China while letting the remainder of the world to know he's serious and allowing them time to hammer out new trade agreements. That seems reasonable.
Perhaps. But why not just apply tariffs to China and tell the rest of the world 'you have 90s days to figure out how to balance out trade with he US or you will be tariffed like I just did to China'?

That accomplishes the same thing you are claiming he was trying to accomplish here.

Further, if dozens of countries had already come to him to bend the knee, then why give them more time to hammer out new agreements? They are already at the negotiation table per Trump.
Why delay it?
 
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If you think that Biden is only responsible for inflation then you’re being biased. Not surprising.
I didn’t say Biden was the only person responsible. But I didn’t hear some of these libs hammering him on it.

sorry I’m not gonna listen to them whine after 90 days of trump when’s he’s trying to actually do something that is good for America.
 
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All those things make great boogeymen, but they're a drop in the bucket. That stuff should absolutely be cut, but it won't make a dent. They have to cut things like Medicare and military spending. Nobody in office now is going to do that, though, because it is guaranteed to get them voted out of office.
They may be willing to do some of that cutting if we expose enough BS.

I’m ok with cutting some defense.

as a matter of fact I think we should cut 1 to 2% across the board at a minimum in every department. YEARLY until revenue exceeds expenses to an amount that can affect the debt significantly.

id even be willing to have a small tax raise if there was a guarantee that cuts would happen.

Every department has fraud and waste. Every one of them. They are too big not to.
 
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