So far, nothing. Arnett was hired under terrible circumstances and was essentially thrust into the role by default like an interim coach. But the things he had going for him -- continuity with the staff and recruiting, familiarity with the players and their skillsets, proven ability to field a solid SEC defense -- have all gone to pot.
There's zero continuity on the offensive side of the ball, and the OC steering the ship has almost no track record. Yeah, losing Will has complicated Barbay's job. But it's not like Wright's an untested true freshman or walk-on. After eight games, I still don't know what we're trying to do on offense. (Though to be fair, I'm not sure all the players do, either.) Our TDs per drive (88th nationally) have already sunken close to Mullen '09 and Leach '20 levels, but Barbay doesn't have Mullen's (and certainly not Leach's) resume that I can fall back on. If it continues to get worse, what reason would I have to think that he's the guy going forward?
And the implosion of the defense, Arnett's strong suit, is hard to overstate. Right now, even after playing three of the worst offenses on our schedule in a row -- with Arkansas and Auburn being two of the worst Power 5 offenses in the country -- we're giving up touchdowns on just over 30% of our opponents' possessions. That's 91st in the nation. The only MSU defense in the past 15 years to finish the season giving up more TDs per drive was Shoop's defense in 2019, which finished 99th. (Sirmon's 2016 unit was close at 87th nationally.) Shoop (like Sirmon) didn't return the next season. And as we all know, the pass defense is historically bad -- last in the country in opposing QB completion %, 123rd in opposing QB passer rating, 98th in yards per attempt, and so on and so on. When Matt Wyatt's publicly (and forcefully) blaming the coaches for the bad defense, you know there's a serious problem.
Bottom line, I don't know what the staff is building toward, I don't know what the team's offensive and defensive identities are, and I don't think the team has shown improvement over the course of the season. (And that's something given that we've played one of the easiest schedules I can remember. LSU's defense is as bad as I've seen in the past decade, South Carolina is 2 - 6 with a mediocre offense and horrible defense, Arkansas is 2 - 6 with a mediocre defense and historically bad offense, Auburn is a 4 - 4 version of Arkansas, Western Michigan is 3 - 6 and in the bottom half of the MAC, and Southeast Louisiana is a 1 - 7 FCS team.) So right now, I can't think of any reason to retain the staff other than a complete lack of viable candidates to replace them.
Now, that could all change. Kentucky and A&M are decidedly mediocre (though A&M's defense seems legit) and USM is horrible. If we come out and look competent the rest of the way, take two of those three, and then play a decent Egg Bowl, maybe there's room to argue that the staff has figured it out. And of course if we play well and win three in a row and make the Egg Bowl a game, then the argument gets stronger.
But, man, based on what we've seen so far, I don't see that happening.
