Worst case scenario: Two 24-team super conferences dictated by TV networks

[615dawg]

That's where we are headed, and if this crap doesn't stop, we are going to be disappointed.

The dream for networks is two 24-team super conferences that would look something like this:

Super Conference 1 (B1G/PAC Legacy)
Ohio State
Penn State
Syracuse
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin

Notre Dame
Minnesota
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado
Maryland

USC
UCLA
Washington
Oregon
Arizona
Utah
BYU
Boston College

Notables Left Out: Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Kansas State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers

Super Conference 2 (SEC/ACC/Big 12 Legacy)

Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Georgia
Clemson
South Carolina
North Carolina
Duke

Kentucky
Louisville
Missouri
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Texas
Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Florida
Florida State
Miami
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
UCF

Notables Left Out: Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, NC State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia


Better hope the Pac and Big 12 survive this. We are in if the number is 60/65/72. If it goes to 48, we may be in trouble.

 

[natchezdawg]

Did Mike Bianchi come up with this list?

**

 

[harrybollocks]

I suppose it could happen. This is America. Money and power matter. And those conferences could then lobby for tax cuts and various incentives.

 

[GloryDawg]

I do not think the P5 will give up their conferences for that. They like having full control of their contracts.

 

[Negative Waves]

I'd be shocked if several state legislatures didn't step in and demand...

that both schools like UNC and NC State and Ole Miss and State be let in the new conferences or neither team gets in.

 

[IPMdawg]

I like the idea of 3, 21-team super conferences playing a 2-6-6-6 schedule. The ACC contract seems to be pretty solid and encompasses Notre Dame. I wonder if it can be broken with a majority vote. If so, the Big Ten can take 5 including Notre Dame and Miami. The SEC takes 4 including Clemson and FSU. Then you end up with something like this below:

SEC:

Arkansas	Alabama	Florida	Oklahoma	Clemson	Georgia	Kentucky
MS State	Auburn	Florida State	OK State	So. Carolina	Georgia Tech	Louisville
Ole Miss	LSU	Tennessee	Texas	Texas A&M	Missouri	Vanderbilt

<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

Big Ten:

Michigan	Notre Dame	Duke	Penn State	Rutgers	Purdue	Iowa
Michigan State	UCLA	NC State	Wisconsin	Maryland	Indiana	Nebraska
Ohio State	USC	UNC	Minnesota	Miami	Northwestern	Illinois

<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

New Conference from scraps:

Oregon	Virginia	Utah	TCU	Arizona	Kansas	Wake Forest
Washington	Virginia Tech	BYU	Texas Tech	Arizona State	Kansas ST	Pitt
Cal	W. Virginia	Colorado	Baylor	Stanford	Iowa State	UCF

<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

Leftout:

Boston College

Syracuse

Oregon State

Washington State

Cincinnati

Houston

<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[thatsbaseball]

Wonder what the in-or-out criteria was ? This looks like some ********.

 

[BigDogFan]

Not sure why folks say we are always out in these new alignments. Just don't see this happening and don't see OK State and Cincy being left out.

 

[615dawg]

The best thing I have seen is 2 24-team super conferences and 1 16-team Football conference + the 8 Big East Schools for other sports.

It had us with the traditional SEC. The third conference was a geographic mess.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

More important than ever that MSU has great Leadership.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

We aren't in danger at 48.

This article estimates us as the #30 college football brand, based attendance, market, TV, and social media.
https://medium.com/run-it-back-with...football-programs-by-brand-value-6e2c65f64515

Obviously that isn't an indisputable ranking, but I don't see anyone under us who should clearly be ahead of us. Some would have an argument, but I think we could have a counterargument.

 

[patdog]

The P5 is dead. It’s the P2. But it’s not gonna shake out like the OP says. If the Big 10 wanted Oregon, Stamford, Washington, etc , they would have taken them. Look for the SEC & Big 10 to split the desirable ACC schools in the next several years.

 

[GloryDawg]

The P5 is dead. It’s the P2. But it’s not gonna shake out like the OP says. If the Big 10 wanted Oregon, Stamford, Washington, etc , they would have taken them. Look for the SEC & Big 10 to split the desirable ACC schools in the next several years.

If it comes down to two large conference I believe you are correct. It will be the SEC and Big 10 dividing the other conferences up. The SEC and Big 10 are the two most powerful conference. They will not give up power.

 

[DAWGS1.sixpack]

I’ll still watch college football and go to a few games but this **** is sucking the life out of college football for me anyway.
Basketball won’t be so bad bc you have a 66 or 68 team playoff.
Baseball same thing basically.

 

[patdog]

If it comes down to two large conference I believe you are correct.

It already is down to two power conferences. Only thing holding the ACC together for now is the grant of rights agreement through 2036. But the clock is ticking on when it will be worth more for the FSU, UNC, Miami, VA Tech, Clemson and maybe a couple of others to pay the penalty and join the SEC or Big 10.

 

[patdog]

Anything over 40 for the final number and we're fine. Under 30, we're screwed. Between 30-40, could go either way. But it looks like we're going to wind up with an SEC and a Big 10 with 20-24 teams each (not necessarily both with the same number). I doubt either conference would kick out an existing member. But if they did, Vandy and Missouri would probably be the first two out.

 

[thatsbaseball]

This is the part that worries me.

 

[johnson86-1]

We aren't in danger at 48.

This article estimates us as the #30 college football brand, based attendance, market, TV, and social media.
https://medium.com/run-it-back-with...football-programs-by-brand-value-6e2c65f64515

Obviously that isn't an indisputable ranking, but I don't see anyone under us who should clearly be ahead of us. Some would have an argument, but I think we could have a counterargument.

We aren't in danger if they are picking based on current desirability, but if they are looking at maximizing revenue long term, they would probably prefer to only have one Mississippi school. A team like Ok St. would be at risk also. At first, leaving out Ok St, Ole Miss, or MSU might cost a little bit of money but over time, you're going to pick that market back up as people will start cheering for the only Tier 1 athletic school (whatever you want to call it) in the state. Kansas and KSU will be basically the same position as state and ole Miss. Kansas will be the obvious choice for basketball but KSU for football. I suspect that Kansas being a true basketball blue blood and the desire to have some patsies on the schedule would get Kansas the nod if it comes down to it.

If they go that route, it would be interesting to see what states get left with no tier one athletics program. West Virginia has 1.75M people. Do they make it? I would think so, but Idaho has 1.9M, so does that mean Boise St gets elevated? OR do people not care enough about football in Idaho.

NEbraska has 1.9M, New Mexico has 2.1M (do they get a rep? you'd think not). Then it's a pretty good jump to Kansas, Mississippi, and Arkansas all having around 3M.

 

[johnson86-1]

I’ll still watch college football and go to a few games but this **** is sucking the life out of college football for me anyway.
Basketball won’t be so bad bc you have a 66 or 68 team playoff.
Baseball same thing basically.

With how easy it is to stream broadcasts now, I would be fine if there was a 32 team more or less professional league of college teams and Ole Miss and MSU got to go back to something resembling amateur athletics.

 

[patdog]

I think a lot of schools like MSU, UM, Kansas, K-State, Okie St., WVU, maybe even Nebraska, etc. are big enough to not get kicked out of a super conference if they're already in it. But not big enough to get an invitation to one if they're not already in it.

 

[patdog]

Honestly, I would too. Obviously, the school would lose a lot of revenue. But we'd be a lot more competitive and I'd enjoy the games just as much, if not more.

 

[8dog]

CFP doesn’t have the reach to be under 40. The NFL does bc its in the most populated cities in America. They need the Mississippi State and Oklahoma State fans of the world to care enough to watch Alabama play LSU

 

[8dog]

That would crush our athletic dept and enrollment

 

[Smoked Toag]

That would crush our athletic dept and enrollment

Agree, we'd essentially go back to being equal with USM like we were in the 70s and 80s.

Maybe if they made a second P5, with the next 32 teams, so they could keep the 4-team playoffs, that might work. But I certainly would not want to be the big fish in a pond with USM, La Tech, etc. Because the main reason we are the big fish is because we're eating all the scraps from the P5/SEC table (but they are big, meaty scraps).

USM only recently chose to do this because #1, they had no choice, and #2, they weren't dropping down a division. Even though in their case they should, can't imagine money being much different from G5 to FCS, and they'd win much more in FCS.

 

[patdog]

We’ll be in a bigger pond than USM, LA Tech, etc no matter how this winds up. Worst case, we’d be in the pond with Memphis, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, etc.

 

[thatsbaseball]

WHILE simultaneously raising academic standards...I'm in.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

The SEC has too much power, all SEC schools are safe, I don't see that changing - Sankey will not give up any power. The SEC may add some teams to get to whatever number is needed to balance things out. Sanke is probably already looking at Arizona/ASU among others, we may be able to poach FSU (if Primetime ever becomes HC there, that will be a show that can't be missed). BYU is going to the Big 12, but would they be a candidate for the SEC? If the ACC craters, obviously Clemson, UNC and Louisville with UVA and Miami getting consideration.

The SEC IS College Football and will not bend the knee to anyone, no matter what.

 

[Dawgg]

We’ll be in a bigger pond than USM, LA Tech, etc no matter how this winds up. Worst case, we’d be in the pond with Memphis, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, etc.

I don't see how that's true. Tulane, Memphis, Cincy, and Houston are in major metro areas.

Without the prestige of being in the SEC, Mississippi State and Ole Miss will wither into Sun Belt territory.

 

[patdog]

They're all in major metro areas, but none of those schools has the fan base or history that we do. Really, for a college, being in a major metro area is almost a drawback to being a major sports school. Nobody there cares about college sports. They care about their pro teams.

 

[Emma’s Dad]

I do not believe the SEC will abandon or cut member schools unless all pretense of football being a college sport with student athletes is also dropped. College football being performed with student athletes (as opposed to being a purely professional minor league for the NFL) will endure for some time because school affiliation brings big major donors to college athletics and provides the main source of viewership (and hence tv revenue). If the school affiliations are dropped, then look out MSU, Ole Miss, Vandy, USC(arolina) etc. But at that point who will care? I won’t.

 

[Smoked Toag]

We’ll be in a bigger pond than USM, LA Tech, etc no matter how this winds up. Worst case, we’d be in the pond with Memphis, Tulane, Cincy, Houston, etc.

How so? If the 32 teams break away (not just in conference title, I'm talking a new division, which is what johnson85 essentially said earlier, that you agreed with), then we're left in a roughly 98 team division (the rest of FBS) which will include USM, La Tech and their brethren.

Yeah, we'd likely be in a better conference (Big 12 or ACC), but that's a dangerous slope. What if we don't get picked up?

That's why I say I'd only agree to it (if I had a vote) if we were going to split that 98 teams up, so we'd at least be paired with the Kansas States and Oklahoma States of the world (basically the low end of the current P5) in a separate division with a separate title, rather than the Sun Belt and CUSA.

 

[Ralph Cramden]

The only way State is ever not part of the SEC is if the SEC doesn't exist. We are an original member. C'mon now.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

The only way State is ever not part of the SEC is if the SEC doesn't exist. We are an original member. C'mon now.

Sankey and the SEC Presidents/ADs are not going to dilute their power/influence by abandoning or merging the conference. That's not how power is wielded.

To take a lesson from politics, when republicans are in power (Trump being the exception) they want to "reach across the isle" and "govern from the middle." When democrats are in power, they say, "F you" and ram what they want down the republican's throats. In this case the SEC is going to say "F you" and ram what they want down everyone else's throat.

 

[anonymous.sixpack]

More important than ever that MSU has great Leadership.

You could take the best of Lincoln, Rockefeller, and Saban rolled into one and that wouldn't be enough get MSU into a league of 24.

 

[johnson86-1]

That would crush our athletic dept and enrollment

Athletic department, yes. Enrollment, not sure about.

IF there were only 32 schools, you'd have around us LSU, Bama, and Auburn. I guess Arkansas? Not sure how much people would abandon Ole Miss and MSU to go to those schools. Probably would destroy Ole Miss b/c of the out of state enrollment.

 

[philduckworth]

There's a point of diminishing returns as far as adding teams to the SEC. I think we are there unless Notre Dame wants to join.

 

[Dawgg]

Sankey and the SEC Presidents/ADs are not going to dilute their power/influence by abandoning or merging the conference. That's not how power is wielded.

To take a lesson from politics, when republicans are in power (Trump being the exception) they want to "reach across the isle" and "govern from the middle." When democrats are in power, they say, "F you" and ram what they want down the republican's throats. In this case the SEC is going to say "F you" and ram what they want down everyone else's throat.

You’re an idiot.

 

[bully12]

You’re an idiot.

In what respect? With respect to politics, he is spot-on. Not sure about the last statement about the SEC.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

In what respect? With respect to politics, he is spot-on. Not sure about the last statement about the SEC.

100% on both. The politics is spot on and one would argue that point. If the SEC dissolves and the blue bloods joins a super conference of 30 or so teams, the less power each SEC president/AD will have. The SEC is the undisputed, heavy weight champion of College Football, the conference isn't going anywhere and not going to undergo any major changes other than possibly adding a few teams to get to whatever number they fell they need to be. Cohen summed this up perfectly when being interviewed about conference football scheduling he said, "we are on top, what we are doing now is working, there is no reason to be in a rush to change."

 

[Dawgg]

In what respect? With respect to politics, he is spot-on. Not sure about the last statement about the SEC.

One, for injecting politics into an apolitical discussion.

Two, for believing one side does everything above board and in the spirit of cooperation while the other malevolently steamrolls its agenda. Before you start your whatabouts, I don’t give a **** and have no interest in engaging in a political back & forth with you.

Now a third, for having his girlfriend come here and defend his honor.