J.D. PicKell explains putting Georgia in 'pencil in' territory for Playoffs

It’s officially entering talking season, and what better to discuss than the College Football Playoff for 2024. An expanded field from four to 12, On3’s J.D. PicKell believes that about a third of the field can probably be penciled into the bracket already. He’s not willing to call these three teams “locks” but does believe they are “soft locks.” For PicKell, that would be the Georgia Bulldogs, Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks.

Having three of the shortest odds – not just to make the Playoff but also to win it – according to Vegas oddsmakers, it’s understandable why Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon are in this tier of their own in PicKell’s eyes. Each made the Playoff at least once in the four-team era, and both Georgia and Ohio State won titles. Tripling the size the field only helps their chances to do so.

In the case of Georgia, PicKell almost sees it as unfair. Kirby Smart and his coaching staffs have been good enough to record more wins than anybody since 2020, and they have a pair of titles to show for their work. It’s not often that the Bulldogs have lost, but when they have, they’ve come out with a chip on their shoulder, learning from their mistakes and not making them again. That’s the kind of thing that has PicKell all but certain Georgia will be in the field of 12 come December.

“I do not see any glaring weaknesses with this team,” PicKell said. “I think if they were going to miss the College Football Playoff, they would somehow have to lose four games. I really think a 9-3 Georgia team with the schedule they have would find their way into the Playoff, and I think the games that are the most questionable are the games at Alabama, at Texas and at Ole Miss. Those three games, I’m most curious about when it comes to talking about Georgia. Here’s the question: are they really going to go 0-3 in that stretch? If they do, do they lose another game? Because I think they could go 0-3, play all three of those teams tight and still get into the dance.”

“The other part about this, I mentioned those three games that I’m circling for Georgia in terms of maybe being the biggest test for them. If Georgia does drop one of those games, the way that Kirby Smart has wired this football team, whenever Georgia loses, it’s not a depressant, it wakes them up,” he continued. “When Georgia loses a football game, we’ve seen this over the course of the last couple of seasons, it’s like an ice bath. Some folks, they lose a game and they get down in the dumps and they start questioning themselves and it hurts the locker room and it just sort of causes the whole thing to fall apart. For Georgia, I think it’s the opposite. I think it’s a wake up call. It’s like an ice bath, you get some cold water dumped on you, everything kind of wakes up a little bit, ‘Okay, we’ve got to fix this, we’ve got to come to our senses a little bit here.’ That’s what I think would allow Georgia to really be scary in 2024 in this 12-team Playoff. Giving them more margin for error is not a good deal. Giving Kirby Smart and that football team a couple of mulligans, not the way you want to approach things in 2024.”

For PicKell, the confidence in Georgia comes primarily on the offensive side of the ball. With Heisman Trophy favorite Carson Beck returning at quarterback surrounded by a cast of characters that are talented and behind an offensive line that features four players with starting experience, the Bulldogs are dangerous recipe for the rest of College Football.

“The way that they’re built right now, I think, is as dangerous as any team in College Football. They are more dynamic than they’ve ever been offensively in my opinion. Carson Beck, I think has a real chance to be QB1 this time next year when it comes to the NFL Draft, and they have gotten some weapons for him to make that offense real deal dynamic. You add Colbie Young, you like what you saw from him during the spring and heard about him during the spring, you have Trevor Etienne in that backfield who’s going to add some more depth and I think could be the leading rusher for you this season in Athens,” PicKell said. “The experience Carson Beck has as well shouldn’t be overlooked. He gets his second year in the system with the same offensive coordinator, in a system last year – let’s just be real with you here, he was real efficient when it came to his execution in 2023, 70% of his passes he completed. He gets a chance to build off of that and have even more continuity, that’s dangerous. Kirby Smart said as much, he feels they maybe didn’t cut him loose early enough last year at Georgia, didn’t really allow him to have full control of the offense, full run of the offense. I think that’s going to change this year.”

Of course it’s not all about the offense. Kirby Smart teams have been known for their ability on the defensive side of the ball too, and they’ll continue to be known that way. Guys like Malaki Starks, Mykel Williams, Smael Mondon and several others are expected to play at an All-American level to once again make the Bulldogs feared when lining up opposite of them.

Put in the top spot by just about everybody in way-too-early predictions and holding there for most post-spring practice, Georgia will likely to enter the fall as the preseason No. 1-ranked team. UGA opens the season on August 31st against Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.