BCS Playoffs

[Perd Hapley]

I think Big is guaranteed four and a SEC team is going to get royally screwed.

Here’s IU’s conference schedule. Yellow highlighted are games already played, red highlighted are games upcoming.

Ohio State is the only team in the top 8 of the B1G standings. Literally every other team on their conference schedule is below .500 in conference play. They drew perhaps the most favorable conference schedule of any P4 team in the country, and it looks like the CFP committee recognizes it.

At first glance I thought PSU case wasn’t much better, but if Ohio State beats IU, an 11-1 Penn State would potentially have 3 wins that are all better than IU’s best win (Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin)

I’m calling it now, 11-1 IU, with loss to Ohio State, does NOT make the playoff. They are a glorified G5 school with that conference schedule.

 

[HuntDawg]

I think Big is guaranteed four and a SEC team is going to get royally screwed.

This week rankings will be interesting and tell a lot.

currently 1 loss Texas and Tenn are ahead of undefeated Indiana. If that stays this week, that’s bad for Indiana.

also where do Alabama and ole Miss jump after their wins. Alabama especially. If Alabama gets to 8. It’s again bad for Indiana.

then goes Georgia fall below ole Miss in the rankings. If you have Texas 3, tenn 5, bama 8, ole Miss 10, UGA 11…. That’s going to be tough for Indiana hold their spot if they lose to Ohio state.

 

[85Bears]

Here’s IU’s conference schedule. Yellow highlighted are games already played, red highlighted are games upcoming.

Ohio State is the only team in the top 8 of the B1G standings. Literally every other team on their conference schedule is below .500 in conference play. They drew perhaps the most favorable conference schedule of any P4 team in the country, and it looks like the CFP committee recognizes it.

At first glance I thought PSU case wasn’t much better, but if Ohio State beats IU, an 11-1 Penn State would have 3 wins that are all better than IU’s best win.

I’m calling it now, 11-1 IU, with loss to Ohio State, does NOT make the playoff. They are a glorified G5 school with that conference schedule.


View attachment 689392

They qre a glorified g5 school ? Lmao.
Rooting for Cig aside having watched them, they are a good team. Solid defense #2 in the bation qb pressures , very good qb and passing attack. Where Indiana will have trouble is their O line against the very elite D lines but they can beat at least half of the 12 playoff teams.

 

[HuntDawg]

Here’s IU’s conference schedule. Yellow highlighted are games already played, red highlighted are games upcoming.

Ohio State is the only team in the top half of the B1G standings. Literally every other team on their conference schedule is below .500 in conference play. They drew perhaps the most favorable conference schedule of any P4 team in the country, and it looks like the CFP committee recognizes it.

At first glance I thought PSU case wasn’t much better, but if Ohio State beats IU, an 11-1 Penn State would have 3 wins that are all better than IU’s best win.

I’m calling it now, 11-1 IU, with loss to Ohio State, does NOT make the playoff. They are a glorified G5 school with that conference schedule.


View attachment 689392

Bingo. And their non conference is weak. They’ll be able to survive a close loss maybe. But if Ohio state walks the dog with them they aren’t making it. They have to prove they belong with the elite. This is their shot to show it, they don’t look the part, that 11-1 record will land them where pittsburghs 11-1 record lands them.

 

[HuntDawg]

They qre a glorified g5 school ? Lmao.

You do realize they are in the exact same position of a team like Arkansas. hadnt been in the national picture in years and drew a conference schedule of:

miss state, Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, auburn and Vanderbilt…. And using the undefeated in the sec company line to boost credibility without playing the true powers.

thats the equivalent of who Indiana has played so far this year. Credit for winning the games. But that’s why they are ranked behind 1 loss teams.

 

[patdog]

Here’s IU’s conference schedule. Yellow highlighted are games already played, red highlighted are games upcoming.

Ohio State is the only team in the top 8 of the B1G standings. Literally every other team on their conference schedule is below .500 in conference play. They drew perhaps the most favorable conference schedule of any P4 team in the country, and it looks like the CFP committee recognizes it.

At first glance I thought PSU case wasn’t much better, but if Ohio State beats IU, an 11-1 Penn State would potentially have 3 wins that are all better than IU’s best win (Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin)

I’m calling it now, 11-1 IU, with loss to Ohio State, does NOT make the playoff. They are a glorified G5 school with that conference schedule.


View attachment 689392

Boy, you get past that top 4 and that's a LOT of mediocrity in the Big 10.

 

[HuntDawg]

They qre a glorified g5 school ? Lmao.
Rooting for Cig aside having watched them, they are a good team. Solid defense #2 in the bation qb pressures , very good qb and passing attack. Where Indiana will have trouble is their O line against the very elite D lines but they can beat at least half of the 12 playoff teams.

They remind me of the cincy team that went undefeated and got dismantled by Alabama. Veteran team, veteran qb, but couldn’t compete with the big boys… and it was clear the minute they stepped on the field together.

it’s easy to be highly ranked in the nation in things when you don’t play the best teams in the nation.

they’ll get a chance to prove us right or wrong against Ohio state. But unless they jump some teams in the rankings with their Michigan win.., the committee (rightly so) seems uncertain on them

 

[85Bears]

Boy, you get past that top 4 and that's a LOT of mediocrity in the Big 10.

I think Tenn is a pretty flawed team offensively. Sec may not have a dominant team this year

 

[patdog]

I think Tenn is a pretty flawed team offensively. Sec may not have a dominant team this year

Agree. With a good QB, they could be a real contender. But their starter is mediocre and his backup is awful. Big 10 top 4 may be better than SEC top 4 this year. But SEC 5-15 would dominate Big 10 5-15.

 

[She Mate Me]

I don't want to get too deep into it with quite a few games left to play, but I do have an opinion on Georgia.

If they beat UT and win out, their resume, with 4 games vs playoff contenders (3 on the road) and 2 losses in those games, is simply better than Ole Miss's.

I don't know what that will mean, but I suspect it'll be noticed.

I don't like Ole Miss, but I do think they are a Top 12 team. However, their losses considering the small number of tough games they had, are bad.

 

[HuntDawg]

I don't want to get too deep into it with quite a few games left to play, but I do have an opinion on Georgia.

If they beat UT and win out, their resume, with 4 games vs playoff contenders (3 on the road) and 2 losses in those games, is simply better than Ole Miss's.

I don't know what that will mean, but I suspect it'll be noticed.

Can’t dismiss the head to head though. but I agree the resume is better… but that’s one of those that usually gets sided with what happened on the field.. and it wasn’t close on the field.

we’ll get our answer to that when the rankings come out. 2 loss Alabama, ole Miss, and Georgia.. will be interested to see where they are ranked and in what order. Because that’ll be the pecking order as we go down the stretch. I think Alabama will be the highest ranked of the 3, but we will see.

 

[She Mate Me]

Can’t dismiss the head to head though. but I agree the resume is better… but that’s one of those that usually gets sided with what happened on the field.. and it wasn’t close on the field.

we’ll get our answer to that when the rankings come out. 2 loss Alabama, ole Miss, and Georgia.. will be interested to see where they are ranked and in what order. Because that’ll be the pecking order as we go down the stretch. I think Alabama will be the highest ranked of the 3, but we will see.

Most of the data driven polls have Georgia, Alabama and Texas as the cream in the SEC (Top 6) with UT and Ole Miss interchangeable, but in the Top 12.

It'll be fun to watch since we suck all the back teets.

Edited, actually looked at more data polls and they are kinda all over the place. We shall see.

 

[patdog]

Most of the data driven polls have Georgia, Alabama and Texas as the cream in the SEC (Top 6) with UT and Ole Miss interchangeable, but in the Top 12.

It'll be fun to watch since we suck all the back teets.

And yet TN & UM are 2-0 vs those “top 3.”

 

[HuntDawg]

Most of the data driven polls have Georgia, Alabama and Texas as the cream in the SEC (Top 6) with UT and Ole Miss interchangeable, but in the Top 12.

It'll be fun to watch since we suck all the back teets.

I agree. But… there isn’t but one poll that matters.

I want to see where they are in that. And if there is a gap there too… like is one 8, and the others 10 and 11. It will tell a lot.

alabamas resume is the best to this point. 4 top 25 wins. ole Miss is the worst of the 3… but I Georgia losing to both Alabama and ole Miss… I don’t see how you can put them above either in that 3 way tie type situation.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Boy, you get past that top 4 and that's a LOT of mediocrity in the Big 10.

Exactly. And if you’re a team with no wins over anyone in the Top 8 of that league, you’re not going to get treated any better than a 1-loss team from the ACC or Big 12 that doesn’t win its league, or a one loss Boise State, Army, etc.

 

[85Bears]

Exactly. And if you’re a team with no wins over anyone in the Top 8 of that league, you’re not going to get treated any better than a 1-loss team from the ACC or Big 12 that doesn’t win its league, or a one loss Boise State, Army, etc.

Not so fast my friend. Politics(financial interests) will guarantee the Big is well represented.

 

[Perd Hapley]

They qre a glorified g5 school ? Lmao.
Rooting for Cig aside having watched them, they are a good team. Solid defense #2 in the bation qb pressures , very good qb and passing attack. Where Indiana will have trouble is their O line against the very elite D lines but they can beat at least half of the 12 playoff teams.

I didn’t mean they were G5 level in terms of their team, I’m saying that their resume is going to be G5 level without a win over Ohio State. A lot of their strengths that you mention are a product of a weak schedule. Committee isn’t going to just see “11-1 B1G team” and just auto-write them in. They are going to look much deeper….that much is already obvious by the teams ranked ahead of them. They view them more or less the same as they view BYU.

 

[85Bears]

I didn’t mean they were G5 level in terms of their team, I’m saying that their resume is going to be G5 level without a win over Ohio State. A lot of their strengths that you mention are a product of a weak schedule. Committee isn’t going to just see “11-1 B1G team” and just auto-write them in. They are going to look much deeper….that much is already obvious by the teams ranked ahead of them. They view them more or less the same as they view BYU.

We shall see. 10-2 SEC wont cancel out a 11-1 Big team in most cases.

 

[She Mate Me]

I agree. But… there isn’t but one poll that matters.

I want to see where they are in that. And if there is a gap there too… like is one 8, and the others 10 and 11. It will tell a lot.

alabamas resume is the best to this point. 4 top 25 wins. ole Miss is the worst of the 3… but I Georgia losing to both Alabama and ole Miss… I don’t see how you can put them above either in that 3 way tie type situation.

For me, it's easy to see how you put them ahead of Ole Miss. Same number of losses, against a significantly tougher schedule, with both better wins and better losses.

That, if combined with another quality win against a playoff contender (UT), will offset what was, most definitely, a high level performance by OM at home Saturday. For me, at least.

But you're right. The FCS poll means a lot this week.

 

[HuntDawg]

Not so fast my friend. Politics(financial interests) will guarantee the Big is well represented.

3 teams is represented well. It’ll be an interest debate.. but the sec still holds the ace of spades

 

[Perd Hapley]

Not so fast my friend. Politics(financial interests) will guarantee the Big is well represented.

Define “well represented”. 3 teams from the B1G would be plenty. Would make them the 2nd most represented league, and would be 2 more than any other league besides the SEC. And that all would make sense, because they are the clear 2nd best league.

 

[HuntDawg]

For me, it's easy to see how you put them ahead of Ole Miss. Same number of losses, against a significantly tougher schedule, with both better wins and better losses.

That, if combined with another quality win against a playoff contender (UT), will offset what was, most definitely, a high level performance by OM at home Saturday. For me, at least.

But you're right. The FCS poll means a lot this week.

Using that logic.. which is fine to use…. Is why I think there is a strong case the sec gets 5 and Indiana gets left out with a subpar performance against Ohio state.

their resume will pale in comparison to any of the 2 loss sec teams we are discussing.

if the schedule is going to be weighed heavy enough to move georgia over ole Miss despite a double digit loss on the field… then the lack of schedule from Indiana should be weighed the same. Bc I agree ole Miss schedule isn’t great.. it looks like an nfl schedule compared to indianas to date.

 

[85Bears]

Define “well represented”. 3 teams from the B1G would be plenty. Would make them the 2nd most represented league, and would be 2 more than any other league besides the SEC. And that all would make sense, because they are the clear 2nd best league.

How many does the sec get ? bigs getting four according to every bracket I’ve seen, Big has four of the top five ranked teams in the country. SEC may not have a dominant team this year, especially if Texas goes down.

 

[She Mate Me]

Using that logic.. which is fine to use…. Is why I think there is a strong case the sec gets 5 and Indiana gets left out with a subpar performance against Ohio state.

their resume will pale in comparison to any of the 2 loss sec teams we are discussing.

if the schedule is going to be weighed heavy enough to move georgia over ole Miss despite a double digit loss on the field… then the lack of schedule from Indiana should be weighed the same. Bc I agree ole Miss schedule isn’t great.. it looks like an nfl schedule compared to indianas to date.

I agree with you on Indiana. If they are not competitive with Ohio State, it really gives the committee a lot of room to justify leaving them out. A close game could get them in.

It's a huge game for a lot more teams than just Indiana.

 

[85Bears]

CHOOSE ONE TEAM TO MAKE THE CFP​

Start your path here. Below you'll find the 24 teams with the best chance to make the 12-team playoff, ordered from most likely to least likely according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
95%

OREGON93%

INDIANA92%

OHIO STATE82%

TEXAS81%

PENN STATE76%

ALABAMA74%

TENNESSEE73%

GEORGIA71%

BOISE STATE66%

NOTRE DAME61%

OLE MISS60%

MIAMI59%

BYU38%

SMU27COLORADO26%

ARMY17%

CLEMSON16%

KANSAS STATE14%

TEXAS A&M14%

7SOUTH CAROLINA9%

LOUISIANA8%

MISSOURI7%

WASHINGTON STATE7%

This is espns college football predictor From November 10th. IU is a lock

 

[HuntDawg]

CHOOSE ONE TEAM TO MAKE THE CFP​

Start your path here. Below you'll find the 24 teams with the best chance to make the 12-team playoff, ordered from most likely to least likely according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
95%

OREGON93%

INDIANA92%

OHIO STATE82%

TEXAS81%

PENN STATE76%

ALABAMA74%

TENNESSEE73%

GEORGIA71%

BOISE STATE66%

NOTRE DAME61%

OLE MISS60%

MIAMI59%

BYU38%

SMU27COLORADO26%

ARMY17%

CLEMSON16%

KANSAS STATE14%

TEXAS A&M14%

7SOUTH CAROLINA9%

LOUISIANA8%

MISSOURI7%

WASHINGTON STATE7%

This is espns college football predictor From November 10th. IU is a lock

Last week Miami was 91 percent. Now 60.

last week ole Miss was 34, now 61.

that thing means very little. My guess is Indiana chances will fluctuate about that much with a loss.

and seeing the current top 12 are all 60% or better and by sheer auto bids… 1 of those has to be left out. Being in that 60% range isnt a lock

 

[Jack Klompus.sixpack]

Anyone but Mississippi. Please. Pretty please. Because they are who they are, with sugar on top.

 

[Perd Hapley]

CHOOSE ONE TEAM TO MAKE THE CFP​

Start your path here. Below you'll find the 24 teams with the best chance to make the 12-team playoff, ordered from most likely to least likely according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
95%

OREGON93%

INDIANA92%

OHIO STATE82%

TEXAS81%

PENN STATE76%

ALABAMA74%

TENNESSEE73%

GEORGIA71%

BOISE STATE66%

NOTRE DAME61%

OLE MISS60%

MIAMI59%

BYU38%

SMU27COLORADO26%

ARMY17%

CLEMSON16%

KANSAS STATE14%

TEXAS A&M14%

7SOUTH CAROLINA9%

LOUISIANA8%

MISSOURI7%

WASHINGTON STATE7%

This is espns college football predictor From November 10th. IU is a lock

They are not a lock. Nobody is at this point. All the playoff predictor does is aggregate most likely outcomes of all teams and report the number of simulations with them in. Them showing IU at 92% means that, in 92% of simulations, either IU beats Ohio State OR the SEC can only put forward 4 viable teams OR Notre Dame drops another game.

That simulator is also a joke. No Big 12 team has higher than a 38% chance, yet at least one HAS to make it.

But none of that is what we’re talking about. Every scenario mentioned is 5 teams in the SEC (not named Missouri) with 2 or fewer losses. Keep in mind, that includes the conference championship game. If 2-loss A&M hangs a 3rd L on UGA in the championship, that knocks them out in high likelihood. So, these simulations are counting on cannibalization from happening in the SEC. We’ll see how much that actually happens, but the OM win over UGA did eliminate quite a few scenarios where the SEC could get 5.

 

[85Bears]

For all intents and purposes an 11-1 Big team whose only loss is to #2 Ohio State is a lock in a 12 team playoff. You have a strong sec bias and you are having difficulty looking at this with objectivity.

 

[HuntDawg]

For all intents and purposes an 11-1 Big team whose only loss is to #2 Ohio State is a lock in a 12 team playoff. You have a strong sec bias and you are having difficulty looking at this with objectivity.

Just like an undefeated acc champ was getting in over the 1 loss sec champion to right?

not all 11-1 teams are made equal. I can for sure see the committee putting them in over the 5th sec team, but i can see why they wouldn’t. Regardless they are far from a lock.

 

[Perd Hapley]

For all intents and purposes an 11-1 Big team whose only loss is to #2 Ohio State is a lock in a 12 team playoff. You have a strong sec bias and you are having difficulty looking at this with objectivity.

I’ll say this as simply as I can. Its best to just pretend that there are no conferences….just loose scheduling alliances. The Big 10 has 18 damn teams. An 11-1 team from that group of 18 might be really good, or not as good as record indicates. Committee already proved last year that SOS is significant. The old days of just looking at W-L only are long gone.

Same goes for the SEC. A 2-loss UGA might be the highest ranked at large team. A 2-loss Mizzou likely has no chance of making the field. How many good / elite teams you play, and beat, matters a lot more than overall record. IU would have nothing there to write home about without a win over OSU.

 

[85Bears]

I’ll say this as simply as I can. Its best to just pretend that there are no conferences….just loose scheduling alliances. The Big 10 has 18 damn teams. An 11-1 team from that group of 18 might be really good, or not as good as record indicates. Committee already proved last year that SOS is significant. The old days of just looking at W-L only are long gone.

Same goes for the SEC. A 2-loss UGA might be the highest ranked at large team. A 2-loss Mizzou likely has no chance of making the field. How many good / elite teams you play, and beat, matters a lot more than overall record. IU would have nothing there to write home about without a win over OSU.

Thats an ivory tower view Perd. In there where the sausage gets made noone is pretending there are no conferences. Politics, money will play a role like always.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I’ll say this as simply as I can. Its best to just pretend that there are no conferences….just loose scheduling alliances. The Big 10 has 18 damn teams. An 11-1 team from that group of 18 might be really good, or not as good as record indicates. Committee already proved last year that SOS is significant. The old days of just looking at W-L only are long gone.

Same goes for the SEC. A 2-loss UGA might be the highest ranked at large team. A 2-loss Mizzou likely has no chance of making the field. How many good / elite teams you play, and beat, matters a lot more than overall record. IU would have nothing there to write home about without a win over OSU.

Ideally, you’re correct. But these committee members are still medieval thinking and will ABSOLUTELY look at record first and foremost.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Thats an ivory tower view Perd. In there where the sausage gets made noone is pretending there are no conferences. Politics, money will play a role like always.

Its not an ivory tower view. IU has what is currently the #100 SOS. There are 30-40 G5 teams with better schedules, and another couple dozen from the ACC and Big 12, too. That’s what the committee actually looks at.

Take the conference names away and do a blind comparison and they are not going to look good at all if they don’t beat Ohio State.

And even if you were somehow correct, you’re talking about the politics / money of…..Indiana football….against that of Texas / TA&M, UGA, Bama, Penn State, Notre Dame, etc. Who’s winning that battle?

 

[Perd Hapley]

Ideally, you’re correct. But these committee members are still medieval thinking and will ABSOLUTELY look at record first and foremost.

Just like last year with Florida State?

 

[85Bears]

Its not an ivory tower view. IU has what is currently the #100 SOS. There are 30-40 G5 teams with better schedules, and another couple dozen from the ACC and Big 12, too. That’s what the committee actually looks at.

Take the conference names away and do a blind comparison and they are not going to look good at all if they don’t beat Ohio State.

Its not an ivory tower view. IU has what is currently the #100 SOS. There are 30-40 G5 teams with better schedules, and another couple dozen from the ACC and Big 12, too. That’s what the committee actually looks at.

Take the conference names away and do a blind comparison and they are not going to look good at all if they don’t beat Ohio State.

You can sit here and argue all day they dont deserve to get in but they are a lock to get in for the reasons i listed above. 11-1 with only a loss to #2. When 4 out of your top five teams are Big teams, they have a pretty good argument.

 

[Perd Hapley]

You can sit here and argue all day they dont deserve to get in but they are a lock to get in for the reasons i listed above. 11-1 with only a loss to #2. When 4 out of your top five teams are Big teams, they have a pretty good argument.

4 of 5? Go check the CFP rankings from last week. Only Oregon and Ohio State in there. Miami, UGA, and Texas were the other 3. You’re using the AP poll which means less than nothing. The CFP rankings are all that matter.

Assuming Miami and UGA fall out of the Top 5, the next 2 behind them were Penn State and Tennessee. So, you’re likely still only looking at 3 of 5 B1G and 2 of 5 SEC for this week’s ranking.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Just like last year with Florida State?

You know that was a 1-off because of the QB injury. But definitely just as terrible.

 

[85Bears]

You know that was a 1-off because of the QB injury. But definitely just as terrible.

coach cig is going to shock the world

 

[Wesson Bulldog]

The best scenario for Ole Miss is to make the championship game and lose and get left out of the playoffs