BWI Sport Betting Thread

[1995PSUGrad]

My NCAA bracket is not doing well (rarely does). However, I am on a bit of a winning streak lately. I had Rory at +820 last week and Hovland this weekend at +880. I am 2 for 2 today on my tournament parlays and two more are looking really good right now.

I don't follow the games like I used to but I will say that Cooper Flag has been very predictable this season. Several times this year I have put together 7-8 leg parlays on Flagg and Duke. I have hit all but one. The one I missed was in the first round of the tournament. I didn't expect Flagg to be 100% and I didn't expect him to play as long as he did, so I learned more on Knueppel, which didn't work out so well. Worked today though!

 

[Moogy]

Unfortunately, MA doesn't allow player props for college sports.

 

[Moogy]

Looking like overestimating the over may bite me again. UConn +9.5, Duke -12.5 and UK/Ill altO158.5. Nice rush toward the end of the half to get it within striking distance, but I'm not optimistic. May put me in MtNittanyland, where I'm praying for a tie.

Holy crapola ... even when I'm wrong, I'm right.

159 points. Another parlay won.

Alright ... Bama -5.5, Maryland m/l, Ole Miss/ISU altO135.5 (regretting this already), and MSU -6.5.

Let's see if the train keeps rolling. I have NO faith in this one.

 

[Moogy]

Normally, if you have a high seed struggling early, you might double down to take advantage of the current spread (like with Duke, earlier), but I don't trust MSU to not throw up a stinker all game.

 

[Moogy]

Holy crapola ... even when I'm wrong, I'm right.

159 points. Another parlay won.

Alright ... Bama -5.5, Maryland m/l, Ole Miss/ISU altO135.5 (regretting this already), and MSU -6.5.

Let's see if the train keeps rolling. I have NO faith in this one.

And even this one won … and I had double-dipped and added Maryland moneyline to that last parlay, so it was a +697 5-legger.

Going to take half my winnings this weekend and add them to the office bracket prize pool, and the other half (after taking my principal back) and cater lunch for the office a few times this week.

It’s good to be the king.

 

[Moogy]

Sweet 16, so far Bama, Duke, Houston, Ole Miss and Florida seem obvious. Houston and Duke give the points. Ole Miss don’t need the points. Bama and Florida … maybe give points … likely alt points or moneyline.

Tennessee, Michigan and Arkansas are maybes, but currently game-avoids. I’ll have to look at the o/u closer when I have time to see if any of those are plays.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Vegas Dave, is that you?

The similarities are striking. If Groovinmahoovin were still alive, he'd love this thread.

 

[Moogy]

Here's a tip ... price arbitrage works on "things." The most basic being Widget in Market A at Price 1 v. Widget in Market B at Price 2. It can be a valid strategy when dealing with inefficiencies across markets. Price arbitrage is not a reliable strategy when it's based on perceived inefficiencies across probabilities based on woefully inadequate information re indeterminate outcomes. Even the best algorithm in the world isn't going to help you much there.

Follow that advice, and you won't have to hurl passive-aggressive insults about folks always being right when they post after the fact ... only to see that same person be right before the fact, and you're left still trying to be passive-aggressive insult-boy, but looking silly. Lighten up, kid. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Erial_Lion]

@Grant Green might actually be onto something. The word salad without actually saying anything meaningful to explain one’s edge is straight out of the Vegas Dave playbook.

And being right “before the fact” would actually mean posting before all of the games start…another Vegas Dave special is the “wow, I’ve got a 5 team parlay in which 3 games already cashed, one is looking good, and one is about to start…see, all I do is win”.

 

[Moogy]

There was no word salad. It was actually quite succinct. And the most verbose portion wasn't explaining one's edge, it was explaining one's bad analysis.

And, yes, being right before the fact. First one I posted, two legs were completed and one I was in good shape regarding. Then I posted my weekend results thus far - so all of those were in the past. Then I said I didn't do as well on Day 3. On Day 4, I first posted about a 3-leg, 2 of which I had already won and one of which didn't look great, but still had a chance. Then I posted a 4-leg ... one was in good shape but still early enough that anything could happen, one was completely up in the air and 2 hadn't started yet. Then I realized it was a 5-leg and I'd missed one, but that was a dupe from before. So, even taking out the dupe and the one in good shape (but we've already seen bigger comebacks this tourney), it was still a 3-leg called before 2 had started and while 1 was completely up in the air.

Stop being so petty. And passive-aggressive.

Now, if you don’t mind, I’m going to celebrate my future successes, because if I celebrate them after they happen, somebody might call me names.

 

[Grant Green]

@Grant Green might actually be onto something. The word salad without actually saying anything meaningful to explain one’s edge is straight out of the Vegas Dave playbook.

And being right “before the fact” would actually mean posting before all of the games start…another Vegas Dave special is the “wow, I’ve got a 5 team parlay in which 3 games already cashed, one is looking good, and one is about to start…see, all I do is win”.

On the other end of the spectrum, have you ever met Bill Krackomberger? Seems like a genuinely good guy with interesting opinions on the sports betting industry.

 

[Erial_Lion]

On the other end of the spectrum, have you ever met Bill Krackomberger? Seems like a genuinely good guy with interesting opinions on the sports betting industry.

I haven’t, though I believe he usually goes to Betbash and I hope to make it out there one of these years for it.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

No...it's a pretty tough sport to beat. The one piece of advice I'd give is that if you are going to play it (and care about winning), make sure you're playing at books that offer a "dime line" (rather than the standard 20-cent line), and have multiple outs so that you can line shop. It means you'll likely be playing offshore, but it would greatly enhance your bottom line.

 

[MtNittany]

MD just killed me the other night. Had them, Duke, MSU, and Bama every which way but Sunday. I broke even but I could have killed it.

 

[Erial_Lion]

MD just killed me the other night. Had them, Duke, MSU, and Bama every which way but Sunday. I broke even but I could have killed it.

Well at that point, as least Queen could have missed the shot as a Colorado State win would have REALLY helped me in some big survivor pools by knocking out more than half the remaining entries.

 

[Grant Green]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

I've dabbled for a few years using some various methods and lost a decent chunk of my bankroll. It's really hard to beat so I stopped trying.
It seems like you have to do a good bit of modeling using advanced stats to have a good shot. I tried building one but it wasn't very good and it's difficult to keep up with stat updates.
And like Erial said, you have to have access to good lines and multiple outs. DO NOT invest a lot on baseball if you only have one account. I might suggest making some picks every day (or whatever) and tracking how they would have done for a while to see how it goes before diving in with real cash.
PS. College baseball is more profitable if you know you stuff.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Not really widely available yet, but made my first UFL play of the season for Saturday's game...

Arlington +3 (-115) San Antonio

Thought this Arlington team was being undervalued a bit, and it seems from listening to others that I'm not alone.

 

[Grant Green]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

Hey 95, if you have a minute to spare, here is a good discussion by Gill Alexander on baseball lines. It starts at 39:30.
BTW, if you have more time, it's worth it to listen to the whole thing. Bill Krackomberger is the guest on Thursdays and he is a good listen.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119...97/episode/a-numbers-game-march-27-271147269/

 

[Moogy]

Ah crap. Games started. Now I can’t post nuttin’. Dang kids playing baseball, and then having to eat dinner cost me my street cred again!

tonight:
altO, altO, O, altO
M/L, -, alt-, alt+

 

[Moogy]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

Parlay alt strikeouts for higher K SPs, along with M/L heavy faves. Pretty consistent winner in my shadow betting last year.

Obviously check to see if the opponent is a higher K team, which helps, but isn’t necessary (not as much of a correlation as I originally thought).

edit: you want to wait a couple weeks until SPs get their pitch counts up.

 

[SleepyLion]

bet the pirates to lose. You'll be right more than 50% of the time.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Here's a tip ... price arbitrage works on "things." The most basic being Widget in Market A at Price 1 v. Widget in Market B at Price 2. It can be a valid strategy when dealing with inefficiencies across markets. Price arbitrage is not a reliable strategy when it's based on perceived inefficiencies across probabilities based on woefully inadequate information re indeterminate outcomes.

Follow that advice, and you won't have to hurl passive-aggressive insults

Elementary arbitrage pricing theory on this board. Really?

Even you don’t have enough invested in titanium siding to make such an idea being profitable over an extended period.

 

[Moogy]

Elementary arbitrage pricing theory on this board. Really?

Even you don’t have enough invested in titanium siding to make such an idea being profitable over an extended period.

Poor Peetz ... read it again, sparky. I was arguing AGAINST using arbitrage theory in betting. You poor thing. How can you always be this wrong? It's crazy.

 

[Moogy]

Ah crap. Games started. Now I can’t post nuttin’. Dang kids playing baseball, and then having to eat dinner cost me my street cred again!

tonight:
altO, altO, O, altO
M/L, -, alt-, alt+

On pace to win both 4 leg parlays again. +406 and +386.

How do people lose at betting?

But seriously, I’ve been tracking the o/u since the conference tourneys began, and man … they’re awful at setting those. Easy money.

 

[Erial_Lion]

But seriously, I’ve been tracking the o/u since the conference tourneys began, and man … they’re awful at setting those. Easy money.

Lol

 

[Moogy]

2 easy dubs tonight.

Tomorrow, UK/Tenn is more interesting than I thought. Tenn seems the superior team but UK has beat them twice already this year. May have to go UK with alt points. Also, Auburn looks like the play now, with a reduced alt spread. Tomorrow isn’t the slam dunk today was.

 

[Grant Green]

But seriously, I’ve been tracking the o/u since the conference tourneys began, and man … they’re awful at setting those. Easy money.

Much more likely that you are on a heater. Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[Moogy]

Much more likely that you are on a heater. Enjoy it while it lasts.

We've been over this.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Much more likely that you are on a heater. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Shall we revisit some of Moogy’s initial posts in this thread? He’s magically transformed from an anti-wagerer into Jimmy the Greek

Sometimes you're the windshield ... and sometimes you're the bug.

I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.

I have nothing against sports gambling. I like it. I follow it. Used to do it, but I stopped - even though it was a tiny, tiny financial involvement - simply to avoid any appearance of impropriety given what I currently do. I still do it "dry" ... I'll make my picks, but not put down any actual wagers.
I just shared my experience with it. Even when I was on a heater, I almost only ever talked about my absolute crap bets, or my bad beats. You would have thought I'd never won. The guys who only ever mentioned their wins, however ... those were the ones who were losing.

 

[Moogy]

Shall we revisit some of Moogy’s initial posts in this thread? He’s magically transformed from an anti-wagerer into Jimmy the Greek

Poor Nabob is obsessed with me. Probably because I’m the only one who will reply to him, since he’s a serial failed doxxer.

Other than my few times in Vegas, this is the only time I’ve placed sports wagers. Unless you count brackets … I do that every year, except this year. And I won’t gamble on anything else until I retire. I “shadow bet,” for fun. That’s it.

Nice try. And I threw up a goose egg tonight. Bad beat in the MSU game on a last-second meaningless Hail Mary banked 3 to ruin one parlay, and lost by 2 taking alt over in the Auburn game, ruining the other parlay.

Still well ahead for this week and still WAY ahead (though I gave all the winnings away) for the tourney as a whole.

Life is good. At least mine. Yours? Not so much.

Poor PoolBoy.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I’ll share another UFL play, for tomorrow (Sunday)…

Memphis +6.5 (-105) Michigan

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Has anyone else noticed that @Moogy has a recent tendency to become increasingly argumentative as a night progresses and doesn’t stop until there are no other posters for him to argue with?

I find behavioral patterns interesting.

 

[Moogy]

Has anyone else noticed that @Moogy has a recent tendency to become increasingly argumentative as a night progresses and doesn’t stop until there are no other posters for him to argue with?

I find behavioral patterns interesting.

On ignore you go. I just hope the most recent batch of young kids you have locked in your basement get found by authorities before they suffer the same fate as those who died before them.

 

[Moogy]

What is this UFL nonsense? I didn't even know it existed. So this is the last gasp of all the new failed attempts to extend pro football throughout the entire year?

Flicking through channels and came across it. The ESPN broadcast makes it seem like this is constructed entirely to give derelict gamblers another outlet. They talk about player props and odds more than actual football.

It’s unsettling.

 

[SleepyLion]

What is this UFL nonsense? I didn't even know it existed. So this is the last gasp of all the new failed attempts to extend pro football throughout the entire year?

Flicking through channels and came across it. The ESPN broadcast makes it seem like this is constructed entirely to give derelict gamblers another outlet. They talk about player props and odds more than actual football.

It’s unsettling.

Last year the UFL (or what ever the spring football was called) showed a more efficient way to make video reviews for football (the NFL adopted some of these improvements). This may be the lone positive impact if so, it was worth it.

 

[Erial_Lion]

The UFL is the merger of the XFL and USFL. Lots of guys on the fringes of NFL rosters, and familiar names to those that follow football closely. They’ve got a good TV deal, so plenty of exposure over the next couple of months.

 

[Grant Green]

Will be interesting to see where this Yankees "torpedo bat" thing goes, especially with regards to totals betting. I'm not expecting the Yankees to score 12 runs per game, but is there something to the bat (seems intuitive that there would) and will there be a significant runs per game increase? If so, how fast will the bookmakers adjust? Will other teams follow their lead and start using these bats?

 

[Grant Green]

Anyone do much with major league baseball?

Hey 1995, here is another way to dip your toe into baseball betting. I may do this for fun too.

It's a baseball betting contest run by Spanky (well known pro sports bettor. I believe @Erial_Lion will vouch) and it's free. I think you have to make 240 MLB bets by all star break to qualify. What's the catch? It's a marketing ploy to get people to use his software, which you probably will have to download. Spanky is pretty trustworthy, so I wouldn't be concerned about any kind of shenanigans.

https://www.spankodds.com/

 

[Erial_Lion]

College Basketball Crown Bets Voided, Odds Taken Off The Board

Betting odds for the College Basketball Crown were taken down and existing wagers were voided across the United States.

vsin.com

Kick in the balls as I had some really good CLV at a couple of legal books that took them down.