BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

 

[Erial_Lion]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

It is…no one would have an edge in that market unless they are mining years of data and have somehow found a hole in the book’s methodology. And with the holds they’ll take on that stuff, it’s very unlikely.

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

Thank you for the insight-

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

I shall be removing that $100 bet to make 14k out of my ticket before I accidently hit submit

 

[Grant Green]

I shall be removing that $100 bet to make 14k out of my ticket before I accidently hit submit

A friend of mine keeps texting me, touting a bet that he is convinced is great - Each team to score a TD and FG in both halves (it happened to hit in both games yesterday). Parlaying 2 games was a 50 to 1 payout. I had to go through the NFL games this season to count how many times this happened. I got through about 15 weeks and it happened 12 times (in about 225 games). If this is accurate over the long run, the payout should probably 350 to 1. Advantage sportsbook.

My feeling is that the sportsbook will almost always be getting the best of it for these type of bets (long shots with seemingly big payouts). Kind of like betting snake eyes at the Craps table. Stay away.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

A friend of mine keeps texting me, touting a bet that he is convinced is great - Each team to score a TD and FG in both halves (it happened to hit in both games yesterday). Parlaying 2 games was a 50 to 1 payout. I had to go through the NFL games this season to count how many times this happened. I got through about 15 weeks and it happened 12 times (in about 225 games). If this is accurate over the long run, the payout should probably 350 to 1. Advantage sportsbook.

My feeling is that the sportsbook will almost always be getting the best of it for these type of bets (long shots with seemingly big payouts). Kind of like betting snake eyes at the Craps table. Stay away.

You are saying it hit on Sunday's two games?

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

My luck would after it hits they would get hit with a roughing the kicker the team would take the penalty and then miss the kick

 

[Grant Green]

You are saying it hit on Sunday's two games?

No, my bad. I'm getting all of his kooky scenarios mixed up (he had several). The one that hit was both teams to score 2 FGs and 2 TDs.
Either way, I'm quite sure it's a negative EV play. Probably by a good bit.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

Those odd are bad, but not as bad as either MegaMillions or Powerball.

 

[MtNittany]

I really like the Tosu -1.5 first quarter on Hard Rock. Depends on the coin flip and possessions, but that seems low to me.

 

[MtNittany]

I really like the Tosu -1.5 first quarter on Hard Rock. Depends on the coin flip and possessions, but that seems low to me.

So much for that...

 

[Erial_Lion]

Here is another play...

Monday, 1/27 - TGL (Golf) - Boston Common Golf -186 Jupiter Links GC

Jumping on the opportunity again to fade this Jupiter team when it has Tiger and Kisner in the lineup (Tom Kim is their third this week). Rory/Scott/Keegan are simply a much strong group at this point.

 

[Grant Green]

Here is another play...

Monday, 1/27 - TGL (Golf) - Boston Common Golf -186 Jupiter Links GC

Jumping on the opportunity again to fade this Jupiter team when it has Tiger and Kisner in the lineup (Tom Kim is their third this week). Rory/Scott/Keegan are simply a much strong group at this point.

-249 at bookmaker now. Looks like people are catching on this time.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Annual reminder on Super Bowl prop betting...avoid any prop that can't be proven in a Box Score. Length of National Anthem, Color of Gatorade, does the MVP Thank God, etc. All of them have some level of subjectivity, and allow a book to grade it in a manner that is most favorable to them if there is any doubt in it. Number of Kelce receptions? Length of National Anthem? Depends, are we counting the extra couple of seconds when the music starts before the singer hits the first note.

Unfortunately, my go-to annual prop is being priced more accurately these days...there was a period there where the "No Safety" was way off every year after a run of Super Bowls with a safety.

 

[Grant Green]

Annual reminder on Super Bowl prop betting...avoid any prop that can't be proven in a Box Score. Length of National Anthem, Color of Gatorade, does the MVP Thank God, etc. All of them have some level of subjectivity, and allow a book to grade it in a manner that is most favorable to them if there is any doubt in it. Number of Kelce receptions? Length of National Anthem? Depends, are we counting the extra couple of seconds when the music starts before the singer hits the first note.

Unfortunately, my go-to annual prop is being priced more accurately these days...there was a period there where the "No Safety" was way off every year after a run of Super Bowls with a safety.

Anything to share for the tourny? CBB is not my thing but always fun to make a couple pizza money bets.

From casual listening it seems like San Diego is kind of a trendy dog pick. Not sure if it's sharp or a public dog.
Have also heard some love for Georgia +7 vs Gonzaga and Yale.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Anything to share for the tourny? CBB is not my thing but always fun to make a couple pizza money bets.

From casual listening it seems like San Diego is kind of a trendy dog pick. Not sure if it's sharp or a public dog.
Have also heard some love for Georgia +7 vs Gonzaga and Yale.

Here is my guide to submitting +EV NCAA bracket pools...

• Pay attention to the scoring system in your pool, and adapt accordingly. Does your pool reward bonus points for picking upsets? Then you should be looking to maximize those bonus points. This is an important rule that is so often overlooked (I'll ask people "what is your scoring system" and they'll say "oh, I don't know"...those are the people we want to be taking money from, not the one that we want to be).
• Pay attention to how many people are in the pool...the more people in the pool, the more you should be willing to deviate from the chalk. To do this, I'd pay close attention to the betting odds to win the tournament vs the number of people that are picking each team to win (here is a good link for that info...https://fantasy.espn.com/games/tournament-challenge-bracket-2025/mostpickedchampions). Teams like Houston, Tennessee and Auburn are severely under-selected right now...and a team like Gonzaga is ridiculously under-selected. If your pool is a 1/2/4/8/16/32 scoring system and has 500 people in it, you would go with Gonzaga to win it all with mostly chalk otherwise, and potentially take it home if they can pull it off only needing to outlast another couple of people that will pick Gonzaga (while their implied odds by Pomeroy to win it all are 1.1%.
• And on the flip side to that...if you're in a small pool, go really chalky. No reason to go out on a limb, let others do that while you maximize your odds of taking the big favorites.
• When people zig, you want to zag. Everyone loves UC San Diego...I'm taking Michigan to make a run. Everyone loves Florida (and I did up until last week), but they are being severely over-selected now, so I'm big on fading them.
• Along those say lines...Pay attention to the geographical makeup of your pool, and adjust accordingly. One of my pools is based in Connecticut, so I always have UConn losing earlier...my upstate NY pools will fade Syracuse...my West Coast pools will fade more West Coast teams. Your goal is to go against the grain to maximize your odds of winning.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I don't really bet many individual games with the tourney since the lines are so sharp...much more likely to be playing NIT and CBI games this time of year to have money on an individual NCAA game. Two exceptions that I did play are Colorado St (a normal play) and Creighton (a smaller play). But I'm in a ridiculous number of pools...my favorite betting event of the year, as there is just so much dead $ out there and every pool that I enter, I feel that it's a +EV proposition for me. It'll be a late night and early morning as I continue firing away at them.

 

[Moogy]

I don't really bet many individual games with the tourney since the lines are so sharp...much more likely to be playing NIT and CBI games this time of year to have money on an individual NCAA game. Two exceptions that I did play are Colorado St (a normal play) and Creighton (a smaller play). But I'm in a ridiculous number of pools...my favorite betting event of the year, as there is just so much dead $ out there and every pool that I enter, I feel that it's a +EV proposition for me. It'll be a late night and early morning as I continue firing away at them.

Interesting. I definitely see CSU, but Creighton seemed a pick ‘em with a Louisville lean to me (so pick Louisville in a bracket, but avoid as a stand-alone game) … what’s swaying you in the Blue Jays’ direction?

 

[CDLionFL]

Picks only have value when they win. Go ahead, pick Gonzaga to win it all and then light your bracket on fire when they get whacked by Georgia.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Interesting. I definitely see CSU, but Creighton seemed a pick ‘em with a Louisville lean to me (so pick Louisville in a bracket, but avoid as a stand-alone game) … what’s swaying you in the Blue Jays’ direction?

I've got Creighton around -.5 to -1 on a neutral (a little bit ahead of Louisville). I'll give Louisville a point here, but I think they're getting too big of a HCA bump on a neutral site game at 12:30pm in an NCAA tournament game. So I also have the game at a pick, which makes the +2.5(-05) a smallish play for me in a market this tight.

Caveat being that I also know I'm a little higher on Creighton that most, and a bit lower on Lousiville (and I might be undervaluing them with Smith coming back assuming he goes).

 

[Erial_Lion]

Picks only have value when they win. Go ahead, pick Gonzaga to win it all and then light your bracket on fire when they get whacked by Georgia.

If I can quantify things correctly, every +EV pick I make has value whether it wins or loses. If you're willing to give me 100-1 odds on something that I know will happen 2% of the time, those 98% of the plays that lost still had value.

 

[Moogy]

I've got Creighton around -.5 to -1 on a neutral (a little bit ahead of Louisville). I'll give Louisville a point here, but I think they're getting too big of a HCA bump on a neutral site game at 12:30pm in an NCAA tournament game. So I also have the game at a pick, which makes the +2.5(-05) a smallish play for me in a market this tight.

Caveat being that I also know I'm a little higher on Creighton that most, and a bit lower on Lousiville (and I might be undervaluing them with Smith coming back assuming he goes).

Still a half to play, but I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest your play was a good one.

 

[Moogy]

Hypothetically speaking (of course) ... the following appears to be a decent little money maker ...

PARLAY (+384 after profit boost):
Creighton/Louisville OVER 145.5
Purdue -7.5
Wisky -7.5 (alt spread)

Wisky better not allow a late game run after relaxing ... hypothetically.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

Although I was on the winning side of it, I have a Bad Beat to share. Last night I have Houston -4.5 as part of a three game parlay. I had already won the first two legs. Houston blows a 14 point lead late and it looks like I am going to lose. A Gonzaga player heaves up a desperation 3 with 2 seconds left. It's blocked and picked up by a Houston player. You would think the game is over but Gonzaga fouls him and he hits both free throws, the second of which was completely meaningless and they cover the -4.5!

 

[Moogy]

The 1st round of the NCAA tourney is, hypothetically, a money-making machine … the lines were so bad that between combos of moneyline bets, o/u and alt o/u and spread and alt-spreads, 3 and 4-game parlays were just raining victories. Both days. The 2nd round has been much more reasonable. But the oddsmakers seemed to just be guessing on the 1st 2 days.

 

[MtNittany]

Need a game or two late afternoon/tonight. Sitting on a zero balance since end of football season withdrawals, ready to reinvest some of my hard earned monies.

Anything anyone really likes? I'm leaning towards the chalk - Duke, ILL, MD (especially).

 

[Erial_Lion]

The 1st round of the NCAA tourney is, hypothetically, a money-making machine … the lines were so bad that between combos of moneyline bets, o/u and alt o/u and spread and alt-spreads, 3 and 4-game parlays were just raining victories. Both days. The 2nd round has been much more reasonable. But the oddsmakers seemed to just be guessing on the 1st 2 days.

There isn’t anything much sharper than NCAA Tournament lines. Limited line movement, and the limits that books will take will reinforce it.

 

[Moogy]

There isn’t anything much sharper than NCAA Tournament lines. Limited line movement, and the limits that books will take will reinforce it.

I’m not the least bit worried about line movement. I’m worried about seeing easy money and taking it. 6 out of 7 3/4 game parlays (so, 24 out of 25 separate correct picks) and it didn’t even take much analysis in most instances. The only mistake was 1 arm of a 3-gamer where I wrongfully expected Mizzou to be able to push the pace enough to clear an alt over.

I’m a fundamentals guy, not a technical analysis fellow, when it comes to the tourney.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I swear that if we go back thru this thread and compile the results of picks that were discussed post-game (with no mention of the plays pregame), they’re winning at a north of 95% clip. It’s amazing that any books are still in business.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I’m not the least bit worried about line movement. I’m worried about seeing easy money and taking it. 6 out of 7 3/4 game parlays (so, 24 out of 25 separate correct picks) and it didn’t even take much analysis in most instances. The only mistake was 1 arm of a 3-gamer where I wrongfully expected Mizzou to be able to push the pace enough to clear an alt over.

I’m a fundamentals guy, not a technical analysis fellow, when it comes to the tourney.

If you want to win long term, you should definitely be concerned with line movement.

 

[Moogy]

If you want to win long term, you should definitely be concerned with line movement.

I'm not a gambler. I own an alt invest house, so I wouldn't want the appearance of impropriety that comes with gambling. I make an exception for March Madness. I've shut down, or been excluded from, numerous brackets over the years, because I win them consistently, since I was a teen. This year, I took the money that would be dumped into the office bracket (filled with top quants) and went the parlay route, to allow said employees the chance to finally win the bracket. This year's first round was particularly filled with gold. What I've seen when I've examined odds-making has not impressed me at all. When I finally close up shop, I may take gambling more seriously. And by "seriously," I mean as a fun time waster. I used to be almost as good at daily fantasy baseball as I am with my March Madness picks, placing near or at the top in multiple national competitions, but I gave that up long, long ago, when I got a real job that didn't allow me the time to track it. I don't even think those sorts of things exist anymore.

 

[[email protected]]

I’m not the least bit worried about line movement. I’m worried about seeing easy money and taking it. 6 out of 7 3/4 game parlays (so, 24 out of 25 separate correct picks) and it didn’t even take much analysis in most instances. The only mistake was 1 arm of a 3-gamer where I wrongfully expected Mizzou to be able to push the pace enough to clear an alt over.

I’m a fundamentals guy, not a technical analysis fellow, when it comes to the tourney.

96%. Wow!

 

[Moogy]

96%. Wow!

Apparently I'm like Rainman when it comes to March Madness (admittedly, it's leveled off some in the 2nd round). I wasn't nearly as good in my hypothetical picks during the regular season. But, like I said, I usually sweep up during March Madness, so this isn't a fluke. But, again, these weren't all straight spread bets ... I would take lesser odds to ensure a win on an alternate over/under number, but then make up for it by lumping them into a parlay, so my overall parlay bet would be +300-500.

 

[[email protected]]

96% is not a fluke?

 

[Grant Green]

Apparently I'm like Rainman when it comes to March Madness (admittedly, it's leveled off some in the 2nd round). I wasn't nearly as good in my hypothetical picks during the regular season. But, like I said, I usually sweep up during March Madness, so this isn't a fluke. But, again, these weren't all straight spread bets ... I would take lesser odds to ensure a win on an alternate over/under number, but then make up for it by lumping them into a parlay, so my overall parlay bet would be +300-500.

Vegas Dave, is that you?

 

[Moogy]

Vegas Dave, is that you?

I don’t know who that is, so I’m going to go with “no.”

 

[MtNittany]

"...I make an exception for March Madness. I've shut down, or been excluded from, numerous brackets over the years, because I win them consistently, since I was a teen..."

LOL
Get off whatever antidepressants they're giving you. They're having delusional side effects.

 

[Moogy]

LOL
Get off whatever antidepressants they're giving you. They're having delusional side effects.

You still betting on ties, Nostradumba$$?

 

[Moogy]

Looking like overestimating the over may bite me again. UConn +9.5, Duke -12.5 and UK/Ill altO158.5. Nice rush toward the end of the half to get it within striking distance, but I'm not optimistic. May put me in MtNittanyland, where I'm praying for a tie.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

I swear that if we go back thru this thread and compile the results of picks that were discussed post-game (with no mention of the plays pregame), they’re winning at a north of 95% clip. It’s amazing that any books are still in business.

I have a buddy (PSU roommate) who used to live in Vegas. He always says, "everyone wins when they go to Vegas, just ask them!"