BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

 

[Erial_Lion]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

It is…no one would have an edge in that market unless they are mining years of data and have somehow found a hole in the book’s methodology. And with the holds they’ll take on that stuff, it’s very unlikely.

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

Thank you for the insight-

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

I shall be removing that $100 bet to make 14k out of my ticket before I accidently hit submit

 

[Grant Green]

I shall be removing that $100 bet to make 14k out of my ticket before I accidently hit submit

A friend of mine keeps texting me, touting a bet that he is convinced is great - Each team to score a TD and FG in both halves (it happened to hit in both games yesterday). Parlaying 2 games was a 50 to 1 payout. I had to go through the NFL games this season to count how many times this happened. I got through about 15 weeks and it happened 12 times (in about 225 games). If this is accurate over the long run, the payout should probably 350 to 1. Advantage sportsbook.

My feeling is that the sportsbook will almost always be getting the best of it for these type of bets (long shots with seemingly big payouts). Kind of like betting snake eyes at the Craps table. Stay away.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

A friend of mine keeps texting me, touting a bet that he is convinced is great - Each team to score a TD and FG in both halves (it happened to hit in both games yesterday). Parlaying 2 games was a 50 to 1 payout. I had to go through the NFL games this season to count how many times this happened. I got through about 15 weeks and it happened 12 times (in about 225 games). If this is accurate over the long run, the payout should probably 350 to 1. Advantage sportsbook.

My feeling is that the sportsbook will almost always be getting the best of it for these type of bets (long shots with seemingly big payouts). Kind of like betting snake eyes at the Craps table. Stay away.

You are saying it hit on Sunday's two games?

 

[Sunshinedynomite 1]

My luck would after it hits they would get hit with a roughing the kicker the team would take the penalty and then miss the kick

 

[Grant Green]

You are saying it hit on Sunday's two games?

No, my bad. I'm getting all of his kooky scenarios mixed up (he had several). The one that hit was both teams to score 2 FGs and 2 TDs.
Either way, I'm quite sure it's a negative EV play. Probably by a good bit.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Has anyone bet exact score prop-

there is a score for tonight that keeps sticking in my head by I feel like it is just throwing money away to predict the exact score

Those odd are bad, but not as bad as either MegaMillions or Powerball.

 

[MtNittany]

I really like the Tosu -1.5 first quarter on Hard Rock. Depends on the coin flip and possessions, but that seems low to me.

 

[MtNittany]

I really like the Tosu -1.5 first quarter on Hard Rock. Depends on the coin flip and possessions, but that seems low to me.

So much for that...

 

[Erial_Lion]

Here is another play...

Monday, 1/27 - TGL (Golf) - Boston Common Golf -186 Jupiter Links GC

Jumping on the opportunity again to fade this Jupiter team when it has Tiger and Kisner in the lineup (Tom Kim is their third this week). Rory/Scott/Keegan are simply a much strong group at this point.

 

[Grant Green]

Here is another play...

Monday, 1/27 - TGL (Golf) - Boston Common Golf -186 Jupiter Links GC

Jumping on the opportunity again to fade this Jupiter team when it has Tiger and Kisner in the lineup (Tom Kim is their third this week). Rory/Scott/Keegan are simply a much strong group at this point.

-249 at bookmaker now. Looks like people are catching on this time.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Annual reminder on Super Bowl prop betting...avoid any prop that can't be proven in a Box Score. Length of National Anthem, Color of Gatorade, does the MVP Thank God, etc. All of them have some level of subjectivity, and allow a book to grade it in a manner that is most favorable to them if there is any doubt in it. Number of Kelce receptions? Length of National Anthem? Depends, are we counting the extra couple of seconds when the music starts before the singer hits the first note.

Unfortunately, my go-to annual prop is being priced more accurately these days...there was a period there where the "No Safety" was way off every year after a run of Super Bowls with a safety.