Not the point.
The answer to my question is that DK and FD are not taking these bets because they think that it is negative EV for them.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
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The answer to my question is that DK and FD are not taking these bets because they think that it is negative EV for them.
That’s understood. But it has nothing to do with my point. You’re chasing excess EV. FD and DK think there’s excess EV there, too. But if there isn’t excess EV there because one or more of the EV components are off, obviously the play doesn’t work. And that’s not about you being wrong, if you’re not doing anything other than chasing excess EV.
Sports betting is all about getting positive EV. period.
If you think that the chargers line is that far off with a number of starters possibly out for a portion of the game, you are welcome to your opinion. I disagree and so do the books. I would recommend you place a bet immediately on the chargers.
General psa for anyone considering this bet, you should expect to lose the majority of the time so set your bet size accordingly.
If the Ravens win the early game, doesn't that mean the Steelers don't have much to play for, whereas the Bengals need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Steelers face Houston as a 5 seed and Baltimore as a 6 seed. It's possible Tomlin won't care (he probably should) but I think he also has incentive to play hard after their recent poor form and to knock out a divisional rival.
From a bookmaker, so take it FWIW. More money and bets on ND - no surprise.
Also no surprise, more bets on OSU but money is split and the line has been stuck at -6 or even dropped to -5.5. I won't bet this game big, but if I do, it will be Texas (would prefer to get 6.5 or 7).
Also no surprise, more bets on OSU but money is split and the line has been stuck at -6 or even dropped to -5.5. I won't bet this game big, but if I do, it will be Texas (would prefer to get 6.5 or 7).
Post-mortem on it...I ended up going 45-35 (56.3%) on my 80 plays. One more win and I would have been part of the split on the cutoff that paid about $400 (so a $100 loss in the end)...two more, at 47-33 and it was $900.
Winner ended up going 57-23 to hit for 150k. That guy also had 2 of the 5 entries that went 56-24 and split for $38.4k each. I think it was a max of 5 entries per individual, so he made a nice score and cleared about 225k.
In the $100 Survivor contest, 37 people made it thru the season to split the 1.67 million prize, each taking 45k.
Mythbuster - the sportsbook always wants to set the line so that the money is balanced on each side. While this is probably true for many games (especially the heavily bet games) it's not always true because books like to maximize profit. I expect the OSU vs Texas game to fit this situation. The following comes right out of John Ferguson's (aka Stanford Wong) book Sharp Sports Betting. I think @LionJim would be interested and @Erial_Lion can jump in an correct me if I'm off.
Typical theoretical example:
Detroit Lions vs Miami.
-The book does their homework and feels good that the actual line should be -7.5 to Det (50% of the time Det covers/50% Mia covers).
-The betting public loves Det and thinks this line should be more like -10.5 (so 50% of money would be on Det and 50% on Mia).
-Option 1: If the book sets the line at -7.5 they get big time lopsided money on Detroit. However, half the time they win those big bets and half the time they lose them. In the long run, they break even on these type of bets but collect the vig.
-Option 2: If the book sets the line at -10.5, the money will be even between the two sides. Mia will cover most of the time, but since money is even, the books split it but collect the vig.
-*Option 3: Here's where the book gets savvy. They could be happy collecting vig in either option 1 or 2. However, what if they set the line at -8.5 or -9? Now they will get lopsided money on Detroit (not as much as -10.5) but Miami is going to cover more than 50% of the time. In this situation they are going to collect the majority of the money more than half the time and still collect the vig. This is a more profitable situation than Options 1 and 2.
JMO, but I think the OSU/Tex line should be closer to -4 for OSU and I think that the betting public thinks this line should be -7 or better. Yet, we have a line at -5.5 to -6.
Typical theoretical example:
Detroit Lions vs Miami.
-The book does their homework and feels good that the actual line should be -7.5 to Det (50% of the time Det covers/50% Mia covers).
-The betting public loves Det and thinks this line should be more like -10.5 (so 50% of money would be on Det and 50% on Mia).
-Option 1: If the book sets the line at -7.5 they get big time lopsided money on Detroit. However, half the time they win those big bets and half the time they lose them. In the long run, they break even on these type of bets but collect the vig.
-Option 2: If the book sets the line at -10.5, the money will be even between the two sides. Mia will cover most of the time, but since money is even, the books split it but collect the vig.
-*Option 3: Here's where the book gets savvy. They could be happy collecting vig in either option 1 or 2. However, what if they set the line at -8.5 or -9? Now they will get lopsided money on Detroit (not as much as -10.5) but Miami is going to cover more than 50% of the time. In this situation they are going to collect the majority of the money more than half the time and still collect the vig. This is a more profitable situation than Options 1 and 2.
JMO, but I think the OSU/Tex line should be closer to -4 for OSU and I think that the betting public thinks this line should be -7 or better. Yet, we have a line at -5.5 to -6.
Oof. 56.3% on NFL and no cash. Man, those contest are tough. Hope you bet some of those outside the contest.
Not really...and pretty much none of the numbers that I played in the contest would have been available at the time I made the plays (hence why they are the games that I played).
Speaking of stale lines...I get in a Bowl pointspread pool every year that uses ESPN BowlMania's platform. I've been in the mix the past few years, so I looked back at it. Against the spread, I'm at...
2024/25 - 29-15 (with 3 to go)
2023/24 - 27-16
2022/23 - 29-14
My understanding is that the books largely bifurcate bettors into bettors whose bets they care about (sharps) and bettors whose bets they don't care about (the public), and this determination is almost wholly based on past success.
Outside of initial lines, they don't provide their own input into the line, in terms of weighing the odds of success of one team or the other. They aren't trying to be gamblers, in that respect.
They'll move the lines to get the money from sharps as close to 50/50 as possible, and wherever the public's money sits, in whichever percentage allocation, it is what it is, and they'll live with it.
So, with that said, they aren't trying to set a line to both (1) pick up the vig and (2) get some excess money based off what they consider dumb/incorrect bets. They aren't trying to gamble like that. They aren't undergoing the analysis you put forth above. Instead, it's (1) pick up the vig and (2) minimize any damage from sharps by making them 50/50 (ish) ... and they'll deal with the fallout of (3) any excess betting from the general public, because they'll make that up later, if it doesn't fall their way in the short-term.
So if the book initially does its homework, and feels the line should be -7.5, the sharps think it should be -10.5 and the betting public thinks it should be -14 ... the line will eventually be -10.5(ish). If the book thinks -7.5, the sharps think it should be -3.5 and the public thinks it should be -14.5, it'll be -3.5.
@Erial_Lion ... can you confirm or deny my allegations?
I agree with this assessment of it.
They basically profile everyone into "sharp" or "anyone else" (and depending on the book, the sharper one is, the more they pay attention to them)...and this is for those books that actually take bets and move the lines (Pinny, Bookmaker, some of the influential Vegas books, etc). Whereas somewhere like Draftkings (and almost anywhere else) will simply reduce your limits when you're sharp until the point where it's not worth playing there any more.
One point I'll make that goes against what most would believe...books will determine if you're sharp not based on how much $ you're making, but really based on what you're doing against the closing line, and if you're betting/creating steam. Joe Smith can be on a heater hitting parlays and raking in $ hand over fist, but they won't care if he's not actually playing sharp stuff. I could be playing college hoops plays that are beating the close by 3 points/play and go 45% over 25 plays, and I'm likely getting limited if I'm betting enough.
At the end of the day, they want to balance their sharp action. Ohio St is probably a good example...they might take 90% action on OSU at -6, but they know that if they move it up to 7, it'll get hammered by sharper players, and they don't want that exposure, since for every 1000 squares that bet $25 on OSU, they'll be a Billy Walters that will use his people to get down $100k on the other side and hammer them.
I'm not sure how old SSB is now (had to be about 20 years I'd think), so I think that some of it might be the evolution over the past few decades. I think back then, bookmakers were more willing to take a stand, but the evolution of the markets, the number of sharp people getting involved, the data available (both actual numerical data to help model, and the info available at everyone's fingertips with beat writers on Twitter), etc have made it tougher than ever to find bad numbers (especially in larger markets). They are almost all risk averse, it's just that the "risk" is trying to limit getting beat by sharp action, not just getting balanced action on everything.
Did the total jump a point too? I don't follow CFB lines cloesly enough to know for sure, but thought it was at 44.5 when I last looked.
It did. It was bet down from about 47, maybe bottomed at 44.5 and then sat around 45 for most of the week. It just touched 46.5 at bookmaker but then back to 45.5 within 15 minutes.
Ditto on 1st half under 23.5. (-105).
what money line price? hopefully plus money.
I thought I was around 50-50 on PSU and Tosu when it was really 70-30. I just wanted more balance between the two.
If you've got a book that has it up, here is a strong one...
Golf - TGL - LA Golf Club -176 vs. Jupiter GC
It's Morikawa, Theegala, and Rose against Tiger, Homa, and Kisner. Expect some serious CLV as it gets closer and people realize how much weaker this Jupiter team is in this matchup.
Golf - TGL - LA Golf Club -176 vs. Jupiter GC
It's Morikawa, Theegala, and Rose against Tiger, Homa, and Kisner. Expect some serious CLV as it gets closer and people realize how much weaker this Jupiter team is in this matchup.
I'm perplexed as to why the line never really moved (other than a few cents). It was a complete mismatch. I wonder if it's just that no one was paying much attention to it or capping it, or if I caught some really good variance tonight. I don't think it was variance, and I'd lay -400 if they played again tomorrow.
I was going to ask what you thought about the movement. Only got to about -195 at bookmaker. It was apparent almost immediately that it was a big mismatch. Tiger looked bad.
I'm not a golf guy but I did find the format interesting. I have to imagine the purists will hate it.
Thanks again for the tip.
EMU hoops games flagged for suspicious betting
Betting integrity firms are investigating a Jan. 14 men's college basketball game between Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan after multiple sportsbooks reported unusual wagering activity.
www.espn.com
I laugh when people bring up NFL games being fixed, or the refs in a PSU-OSU game being paid off. But this is the exact spot that sounds very realistic, fixing the first half in mid-season MAC games. And again, if these bets are placed with locals or shady offshore books, this is never uncovered…it’s a big positive in the legalization of sports betting.
Or when people think "vegas" must have "made a call". It's very much in the sportsbooks interest to deter such activity.EMU hoops games flagged for suspicious betting
Betting integrity firms are investigating a Jan. 14 men's college basketball game between Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan after multiple sportsbooks reported unusual wagering activity.
I laugh when people bring up NFL games being fixed, or the refs in a PSU-OSU game being paid off. But this is the exact spot that sounds very realistic, fixing the first half in mid-season MAC games. And again, if these bets are placed with locals or shady offshore books, this is never uncovered…it’s a big positive in the legalization of sports betting.
I usually don't celebrate my wins too much, but I need to gloat a bit.
Bet KC -8 at a half unit early thinking the line will go up so I can play back if I change my mind. After doing a little more poking around I decided Houston +9.5 was a better bet and took it at 1.5 units. I could have cashed out the original kc bet for full amount but the middle opportunity was too good to pass up.
Well thank you andy reid for that safety! I won both.
I was still cursing that missed hou fg as it would have fell 8 and I push and win 1.5 units.
Oh and I completed a teaser too with kc -1.5! A good day.
Bet KC -8 at a half unit early thinking the line will go up so I can play back if I change my mind. After doing a little more poking around I decided Houston +9.5 was a better bet and took it at 1.5 units. I could have cashed out the original kc bet for full amount but the middle opportunity was too good to pass up.
Well thank you andy reid for that safety! I won both.
I was still cursing that missed hou fg as it would have fell 8 and I push and win 1.5 units.
Oh and I completed a teaser too with kc -1.5! A good day.