BWI Sport Betting Thread

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
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Misleading Box Scores
Other notes
PSU outgained Minny 361-281 yds, 5.9-4.7 ypp and was +2 in TO (should have won by more)
Purdue outgained Michigan State
UAB is a team that is absolutely all over the place this season
Notre Dame outgained Army 9.8 ypp to 3.5 ypp


ScoreYardsYPPTurnovers
Ole Miss
17​
464​
6​
-2​
Florida
24​
344​
5.5​
UCF
21​
348​
6.3​
-1​
WVU
31​
318​
4.2​
Wisconsin
25​
407​
7.4​
-1​
Nebraska
44​
473​
6.3​
(score a bit inflated)
Texas Tech565435.9
Ok St485648.4-1
UL-Monroe213936.6-2
Ark State283765.5
USC193465.3
UCLA133766.8
 

Grant Green

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Oct 12, 2021
2,175
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Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
Got back to my desk just in time to see this one go over 149 with a little over a minute to go.
Last I checked, the line had moved to 151, which is where it landed. Do you know where it finished? Hope nobody took a late 151.5.
 

CDLionFL

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Oct 25, 2021
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Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
PSU's team total has cleared in every game this season. Hard Rock has it at 83 1/2 right now. Game total now at 150.
Cash both tickets!!!

If you waited and it got to 153, you were out of luck on the game total.
 
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Grant Green

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Oct 12, 2021
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The dead cat bounce angle (betting a team a week after firing a coach) is 6-3 ATS on the season. I seem to recall @LionJim enjoying this one.

This week's DCB is is not clear cut. Mack Brown was fired, but will still coach this week. I can't call this a full DCB.
I'm hoping not, as I bet NC State on the open at +4.
 

LionJim

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Oct 12, 2021
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The dead cat bounce angle (betting a team a week after firing a coach) is 6-3 ATS on the season. I seem to recall @LionJim enjoying this one.

This week's DCB is is not clear cut. Mack Brown was fired, but will still coach this week. I can't call this a full DCB.
I'm hoping not, as I bet NC State on the open at +4.
Mack Brown was fired? Wow. I hope UNC gave him the option to retire.
 

1995PSUGrad

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Oct 30, 2021
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I didn't read much, but I saw speculation that they did and he told them to shove it. Take with a grain of salt, but seems pretty plausible from both sides.
I think they wanted him to go and then he announced he was planning to return so they fired him. However, he is still coaching this weekend, which to me is odd. I think he lost the team a while back so I don't think they will have anything to play for.
 

Grant Green

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Oct 12, 2021
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I think they wanted him to go and then he announced he was planning to return so they fired him. However, he is still coaching this weekend, which to me is odd. I think he lost the team a while back so I don't think they will have anything to play for.
I hope you're correct for my NC State bet. NC St needs a win for bowl eligibility and UNC has already qualified for a bowl that it maybe doesn't care about. I took a piece of the ML too.
 

1995PSUGrad

Well-known member
Oct 30, 2021
405
575
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I hope you're correct for my NC State bet. NC St needs a win for bowl eligibility and UNC has already qualified for a bowl that it maybe doesn't care about. I took a piece of the ML too.
I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
 

Erial_Lion

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Nov 1, 2021
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I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
Some context around it...anyone that's successful at it will most likely bet as early as possible, when the limits are high enough that it's ready for them to jump in. In 99% of cases, the goal of making the bet should be to beat the closing line (especially in a large market like college football). If you can't beat the closing line, then you're almost certainly not going to win. In fact, sportsbooks pay closer attention to that than your actual results when it comes to profiling you and cutting your limits (ie, you can win $100k while not beating the close, and they won't care...but beat the close consistently over 10/25/100 plays, and they will take it upon themselves to make life very difficult for you to play with them).
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,175
3,078
113
I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
Good question and to piggyback off Erial's response...the sharpest lines are the closing lines, after the market has picked at them all week. IMO, a huge part of sports betting is getting the best line. that extra 0.5 to 2 points you get can make the difference between a winning and losing bettor. A bettor that waits until game day to make all bets is going to struggle to win long term.

I keep power ratings for every team and adjust them after every game. From this, I come up with spreads for every single game and then compare them to lines when they open on Sunday. If there is a sizable difference between mine and the actual line (or a small difference that is around a key number of 3, 7, etc) that may trigger a bet. I'm more apt to bet favorites early and wait on dogs since the public will tend to bet the favorites more. This may sound silly, but I'm just as happy, if not more, when a line moves in my favor than if I actually win the bet. I've graded every one of "my lines" for years against the open and close. My theoretical win percentage on all games is about 51% to 51.5% on the open and goes to about 50% at close, so there is concrete evidence.

I don't worry about injuries/portal (or coaches suddenly getting fired but coaching the last game!). That can just as easily happen to the other team and work in my favor. Bowl games are different these days. I will wait on a lot of those games to see who opts out.
 

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