BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Erial_Lion]

Most of the ones I've shared picked up some good CLV, but we saw some market disagreement on the St Thomas over yesterday (but came away with a fortunate result). Here is one for tonight (8pm Eastern) that I assume won't have any CLV based on the timing...

Pacific/Arkansas under 149.5

Note on this one...Usually, I care more about the CLV than the result itself, since that's what will give the better indication on if i'm making +EV plays. However, the type of play I'm willing to make in large markets that I know won't see any CLV is plays close to gametime on games that have moved into my range for a play.

 

[Grant Green]

Most of the ones I've shared picked up some good CLV, but we saw some market disagreement on the St Thomas over yesterday (but came away with a fortunate result). Here is one for tonight (8pm Eastern) that I assume won't have any CLV based on the timing...

Pacific/Arkansas under 149.5

Note on this one...Usually, I care more about the CLV than the result itself, since that's what will give the better indication on if i'm making +EV plays. However, the type of play I'm willing to make in large markets that I know won't see any CLV is plays close to gametime on games that have moved into my range for a play.

I was wondering when an under was coming. Do you ever consider the effect of both teams playing in a foreign environment (preseason tournys) for game totals? Maybe more in the first half as teams adjust to a different court/surroundings?

 

[Erial_Lion]

I was wondering when an under was coming. Do you ever consider the effect of both teams playing in a foreign environment (preseason tournys) for game totals? Maybe more in the first half as teams adjust to a different court/surroundings?

I've taken it into account in varying degrees throughout the years. These days, the only thing I care too much about is teams playing in those huge football stadiums...but at that point in the season, not much is getting by anyone so it's already going to be baked into the line. But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).

 

[Grant Green]

But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).

Yeah, that's where I was going. Unders where outside shooting could be affected by a foreign environment. The big stadium effect makes sense.

 

[Moogy]

I've taken it into account in varying degrees throughout the years. These days, the only thing I care too much about is teams playing in those huge football stadiums...but at that point in the season, not much is getting by anyone so it's already going to be baked into the line. But I don't think I'd ever play an over in those places since it does usually have an impact on outside shooting since depth perception is brutal (heck, I used to play some pickup games in the BJC and for me, depth perception even in that environment was so weird).

Since you appear to be the CBB guru, I was wondering if there are any metrics on how close the O/U line typically ends up being to the actual final score? My curiosity was piqued tonight ... I just happened to notice a very low O/U line on North Texas v. McNeese. It was 128.5. Because it was so low, I decided to loosely follow the game ... first half was only 51 points (so on a pace way under) ... but then it was 67-61 (so 0.5 under the line) with 9 seconds left when there was a foul, and the foul shooter made 1 of 2 to make it 68-61, so the over won by 0.5 point.

It would have made for some real drama in another otherwise bleh game with bleh teams playing if there was money riding on it.

How often does the O/U line get within a couple/few points of the actual game outcome?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Since you appear to be the CBB guru, I was wondering if there are any metrics on how close the O/U line typically ends up being to the actual final score? My curiosity was piqued tonight ... I just happened to notice a very low O/U line on North Texas v. McNeese. It was 128.5. Because it was so low, I decided to loosely follow the game ... first half was only 51 points (so on a pace way under) ... but then it was 67-61 (so 0.5 under the line) with 9 seconds left when there was a foul, and the foul shooter made 1 of 2 to make it 68-61, so the over won by 0.5 point.

It would have made for some real drama in another otherwise bleh game with bleh teams playing if there was money riding on it.

How often does the O/U line get within a couple/few points of the actual game outcome?

There are factors at play like the point spread and how high the total is (lower the total, the higher chance it will be close).

Here is an article with some general basketball push percentages…

The Distribution of Totals for Betting Basketball - DRatings

We delve into the nuances of totals betting in basketball, a topic that fascinates both seasoned bettors and newcomers alike.

www.dratings.com

And though you didn’t ask, here is an article from several years ago from Pomeroy covering the distribution of college basketball final spreads (I find this stuff really interesting)…

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-missing-1point-games/