BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
I think I am going to play around a little bit this year with baseball and just try to figure it out. I am doing much better this year on the tournament than last year (and very well on the women's tournament, which I didn't bet last year). It took me over half of the NFL season to figure things out. Maybe I will learn enough this year with baseball to actually do something with it next year
Well, the time has come for the hedge to come into play. If Houston beats Duke on Saturday night, I will win one bracket pool. If Florida wins the national championship, I'll win that same pool plus one other. So the money line hedge went out on Duke today and if they happen to advance to face Florida, another one will be filed. Go Coogs!!
I picked Duke to win my bracket, but I am still close to last in the pool. However, I did put money on Duke to win the title before the season started.
I guess I spoke too soon when I posted last night about the women's tournament. I had been doing great but lost 3 of 4 last night when UCONN didn't cover (had them -14.5 and they won by 14!) and Paige Beuckers couldn't get 1 more rebound!
More discussion on this from Gill Alexander starting around 8:00 if you are interested.
College Basketball Crown Bets Voided, Odds Taken Off The Board
Betting odds for the College Basketball Crown were taken down and existing wagers were voided across the United States.vsin.com
Kick in the balls as I had some really good CLV at a couple of legal books that took them down.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119...496528/?position=477&cmp=web_share&embed=true
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So, tonight has lots of alt-K candidates to parlay. You're looking at Eovaldi, Gilbert, Sale with King and Alcantara ... I might even look at Senga, May, Baz and Burnes (1st start + Yankees = caution) if you're feeling lucky. Pads at home. Rays and Rangers potential alternatives.
Early season, so take with a grain of salt.
Early season for most other sports is an easy time to snipe value ... but for baseball, it's a much riskier proposition. I'd probably dry run it tonight and catch it again, for real, in another 5 or so days.
If forced, I'd go Alcantara 4, Eovaldi 5, Gilbert 6, Sale 5 and Pads M/L for +229. I might actually throw in Berrios 4 because the Nats are so bad and K prone to make it +314, but I'm cautious of Berrios right now.
Early season, so take with a grain of salt.
Early season for most other sports is an easy time to snipe value ... but for baseball, it's a much riskier proposition. I'd probably dry run it tonight and catch it again, for real, in another 5 or so days.
If forced, I'd go Alcantara 4, Eovaldi 5, Gilbert 6, Sale 5 and Pads M/L for +229. I might actually throw in Berrios 4 because the Nats are so bad and K prone to make it +314, but I'm cautious of Berrios right now.
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So far, everyone who I mentioned, who has thrown ... even the ones I eventually abandoned in my "forced to choose" ... have hit their alt K mark. Still Sale to throw. Rays and Rangers with the dubs ... Pads still to go. Note, when I talk of alt K, it'll usually be one from -800 to -150 ... so easier to hit than the generic o/u. Obviously, the more favorable the matchup and the recent/expected pitcher performance, the closer to the stated o/u you go. Parlay them to improve the payout.
Edit: Sale better find it fast, or he won't be around long enough to hold up his end of this.
Edit: Sale better find it fast, or he won't be around long enough to hold up his end of this.
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That takes me to a library of all the shows, broken out by hour. Do you know which day/hour it’s from (wasn’t sure if yesterday or today). Thanks!
Today is a smorgasbord of alt K options - close your eyes and throw a dart kind of day. Even the guys on that iheart podcast may finally get one right. Then again, after listening to them discuss their reasoning for picking the Wesniski-led Astros to upset Logan Webb & Co, I doubt it.
I replaced the link in original post. Should work now. If not - A Numbers Game, Hour 1, 8 min mark.
Nothing ground breaking. Just giving their thoughts for a few minutes.
Thanks, interesting stuff. I lost out on it, but don't blame the books at all, and agree with a lot of what they said. Just a really weird situation.
MLB play for Saturday…
Cleveland -140 LA Angels
Angels have lost three players to injury tonight. They aren’t a deep team to begin with, and I expect it to move a bit tomorrow as the market reacts.
Cleveland -140 LA Angels
Angels have lost three players to injury tonight. They aren’t a deep team to begin with, and I expect it to move a bit tomorrow as the market reacts.
I thought the hedge would end up working well and I’d have to do it again tonite. Houston’s big comeback clinched a big win in a bracket pool. If Florida wins tonite, I win another pool and place in 3 others. So, the hedge is back in place but unfortunately, the ML number for Houston is gonna be pretty small.
Exactly...the two reasons to hedge are that you feel that the new bet is a +EV play itself, or it's life changing and thus you're too exposed on the current outcome. Otherwise, hedging is just giving $ back to the books.
Anyone have any good NFL draft intel?
Seems like this is one of the few betting events where the books are at a disadvantage.
Seems like this is one of the few betting events where the books are at a disadvantage.
It's definitely a market that can be very +EV and you can pick up substantial CLV. The downside is that limits can be small to begin with, and get slashed even more once you show the books that you know what you're doing (at most places).
Regardless, there was a year about 15 years ago where 5D started me with 1k limits on NBA draft props, and by the time the draft hit, Tony had me down to $25...and I still kept playing them since some of them were basically free $. The market is tighter today, but you can beat it if you're getting the right information.
Interesting ... so, let's say you knew the GM of a club, or the head of scouting of another club ... and got the inside scoop and placed a "sure thing" bet ... trying to think of a way that this could be somehow punished, outside of some specific contractual language prohibiting the dissemination of the information (but the bettor themselves would be unaffected).
Yeah, I've been hearing that the draft is becoming less beatable than it once was.
Side question, is 5D still around? If so, I assume you still can't use it within the US.
I'm not sure if the NFL would have some sort of punishment for the GM/scout. There isn't a lot of incentive for them to divulge info that could get out and screw them. Limits are generally fairly low on these so a GM isn't going to risk it to score his buddy $1000. If someone tried to place multiple max bets, the books would likely pick up on it and take it off the board and/or ban the bettor. While your scenario is a little extreme, this is pretty much the idea why books don't like the draft - there is available info if you look hard enough and the bet results are not based on a game results that have many different outcomes.
Reminds me a little of this crazy story from a few years ago. Best part is when the bettor tells the book that he has inside info and shows them texts on his phone.
https://www.si.com/college/2023/07/10/inside-the-alabama-baseball-gambling-scandal
I'm not sure where things landed with them. They left the US market, and then I heard that they also left Europe. So not sure if they're still taking bets from anywhere else, or if they've closed up.
Note that BetAnySports was basically the "new" 5Dimes that caters to US customers and was a clone of them, but that's changed and they don't offer nearly what they did at one point.
And yet again, an example of the legality of gambling allowing them to catch this...this guy is making these plays offshore or with a corner bookie, and it's never exposed.
Well, yeah ... gambling on the sporting contests themselves is one thing. But this is just the draft. It's not the GM's or the buddy's fault bookies decided to make this worthy of being gambled upon. I mean, bookmakers could start taking bets on what color suits people will wear to the draft (or anywhere, really) ... does that mean the tailor is sworn to secrecy, or his family and friends can't profit off knowing he's going to wear electric orange socks? And I don't think it'd be too uncommon to just let some stuff "slip" about who they're targeting if you meet your buddy over beers. I know I've known some offseason personnel moves were happening or likely to happen before they happened or became public.