GO LIONS beat niners game thread
- Thread starter laKavosiey-st lion
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Both were very makable FGs. Not sure where you’re getting just over 50%. That’s just silly.
You don’t leave points on the board in these type games and tonight was the exact reason why.
I'm getting just over 50% because 75% * 75% (my high level estimate of the chance of making each FG) equals 56%. If I drill down further, NFL kickers hit the first one at about a 76% clip, and the second one at a 72% clip, so about a 55% chance.
In terms of "leaving points on the board"...without getting into if any of the decisions were the right move, tonight is another great example of people only thinking about/commenting on those times when the coach is unsuccessful. Teams were 4-8 going for 4th downs today. I've read criticism on 3 of those 4 misses...haven't read a single comment about any of those 4 successful conversions, and what they meant. For whatever reason, people seem to only focus on the unsuccessful tries when looking at 4th downs and/or going for 2.
Why? Those are NFL averages, and we're talking about a kicker that was cut by 3 different teams this season. Where would you put it at?
Under 40 closer to 90%
40-50 85%
50+ I could go with your 75%
beeing cut by 3 different teams means nothing. Lots of reasons kickers get cut
Mark Mosley was cut several times before he got really good. He told me it was all about a maturation process
Where are you pulling your numbers? I'm zeroing in on all FGs from 2010 to 2023...the two plays were from the 28 and 30 yard lines, and we usually add about 17.5 yards, so I was looking in that 45/46 and 47/48 yard range...
| DISTANCE (IN YARDS) | FGS MADE | ATTEMPTED | MAKE PERCENTAGE |
|---|
| 44 | 295 | 369 | 79.9% |
| 45 | 328 | 420 | 78.1% |
| 46 | 297 | 403 | 73.7% |
| 47 | 300 | 409 | 73.3% |
| 48 | 358 | 510 | 70.2% |
| 49 | 284 | 384 | 74.0% |
| 50 | 266 | 375 | 70.9% |
Isolating the 2023 season (thru tonight's games), kickers are 78.7% from 40-49 yards, and 69.1% from 50+.
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Why would you ever isolate those numbers on final 4 teams when trying to get expected FG percentages? All you'd be doing is shrinking your sample size.
And were your %'s just guestimates, or were you pulling them from somewhere?
So I’m confused. Did Coach Rockhead for the Lions go with the analytics or against the analytics for his decisions today?
The assumption that the other team doesn’t do anything with the ball after a 2-pt try is illogical and a a major flaw in the theory
They were expectations. Your sample has all those rag legged kickers included that probably got cut after 3 games. I figure the final 4 has real kickers except maybe San Fran
interesting
www.nbcsports.com
Dan Campbell's fourth-down decision in third quarter opened door for 49ers
Dan Campbell is a great head coach.
www.nbcsports.com
I kind of agree, but not totally. I have no problem with the concept of using analytics as a tool and the coach disregarding it in some cases based on some intangibles. However, I question whether Campbell is blindly following analytics. It seems like sometimes he is hyper aggressive, going against analytics sometimes. One example is the 2pt attempt vs the Cowboys a few weeks ago at end of game. After the first penalty, he should have changed course and kicked the XP, but he had already decided he was going for the win. I can't recall the distance to go after the 2nd penalty, but I thought it was more than 2 yards (so probably best to get XP).interesting
Dan Campbell's fourth-down decision in third quarter opened door for 49ers
Dan Campbell is a great head coach.
That about sums it up. DET is up 17 at halftime. SF drives down and gets a FG to start the second half to cut it to 14 points. DET drives down and has the opportunity to make a relatively easy FG to return the game to a 17 point margin, and SF still needs 3 scores to tie or lead. At that point, the pressure is still on SF, because despite having a nice drive for a FG to start the half, they are still down 17 points, but now there is less time on the clock for SF get 3 scores.interesting
Dan Campbell's fourth-down decision in third quarter opened door for 49ers
Dan Campbell is a great head coach.
Instead, SF makes a stop on 4th down and is given new life--unnecessarily. SF starts to believe, and once they go down and score a TD, now they really start to believe. Even though they were still behind by 7 at that point, it felt to me like the game was over for DET. Their mojo was broken by getting stopped on that 4th down, and analytics will never properly capture a situation like that.
I totally agree with your summary. The FG takes it back to 3 score game and less time left. That keeps the pressure on SF. That 4th down stop was equivalent to a turnover. The drive follows, and the long pass was a fluke - but brought life and belief in the SF side. This is the decision that turned the game. The turnover by Gibbs just added to the belief that the Lions karma would never allow them to win. I think if the Lions go back up 17 at that point, SF never catches up.
I do not believe that Campbell uses any type of analytics or quant analysis in his decisions. He is pure animal instinct. The minute he decided to go for this 4th down I thought this was a very bad decision. Because they made the NFC championship does not prove that his decisions are the best. Of course it does not help that #8 on the Lions does not know how to catch a pass - twice.
I think you make a good point relative to time, I think the time element doenst always come into the calculus
A few things. I wouldn't call a 45 yard field goal relatively easy. SF had already missed one from similar distance. Detroit was moving the ball pretty well on SF. Lastly, it's also worth considering that Detroit could have just about broken SF if they convert and score a TD.
A 45 yd fg the ball is on the 28 yd line? If I am a playoff team and want to win a Super Bowl that should be automatic. And if it’s not you should be looking for a new kicker. I m sure San Fran will be
i posted the numbers yesterday…as much as you think that kick should be automatic, the actual results prove otherwise…and if Badgley was so automatic, he wouldn’t have been available for 31 other teams to sign still on Christmas Day.
And I wouldn’t be so sure that San Fran will be moving on from Moody (I’m quite sure that they won’t).
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Not sure what your first question is. Badgley is 77% lifetime from 40-49yrds. That ain't automatic.
As mentioned yesterday your numbers include a bunch of turds that can’t kick. I asked for the % of the playoff teams kickers. I think you’ll find a difference
As for Badgley he was money this yr why he was available? Who knows but these numbers are solid
Throw out 1 tough yr and the numbers change. Here’s a deep dive. Btw Jake has me spoiled
Michael Badgley stats vs. analytics: How Lions kicker's FG percentage compares to 4th-down conversion rates | Sporting News
The Lions didn't put their trust in kicker Michael Badgley in critical points during Sunday's NFC championship collapse. Would Badgley have made the kicks, or was Dan Campbell right to trust the analytics?
www.sportingnews.com
I was going to break down his numbers from different distances, but looks like Grant's article already did that. Badgley isn't a good longer range kicker, hence why he was cut 3 times this year, and was still available.
And you're willingness to throw out all regular season numbers because they include "turds that can't kick" is crazy, since all of those guys were employed which Badgley was available to be signed. There is no reason to think that isolating playoff kickers alone would give you more accurate numbers than looking at all kickers.
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I should have caveated before I interjected that I didn't feel that strongly about him going for it or kicking in this situation. I thought it was a pretty close decision and that article supports that as the odds of winning were about even. My initial point was that kicking the FG wasn't a no brainer like some folks are making it out to be.Throw out 1 tough yr and the numbers change. Here’s a deep dive. Btw Jake has me spoiled
Michael Badgley stats vs. analytics: How Lions kicker's FG percentage compares to 4th-down conversion rates | Sporting News
The Lions didn't put their trust in kicker Michael Badgley in critical points during Sunday's NFC championship collapse. Would Badgley have made the kicks, or was Dan Campbell right to trust the analytics?
That's where I was going too...I can see the arguments either way, but it seems like the criticism is universal that Campbell is an idiot for going for it. The odds of making the FGs were something around 72% and 76%...odds of converting the first downs were likely just north of and just under 50%. Yet people talk like those FGs were chip shots.
I can only imagine how Pederson would have been killed if the Philly special failed and the eagles lost. Instead, it is one of the most famous plays in eagles history.
I don’t have a dog in the hunt, it’s the 49ers who were looking at other options
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