dak has leverage but so do the cowboys. The cowboys know that again there aren’t but about 10 teams that would be in a position to sign dak as a free agent at the deal he’s seeking and none are in better situations to win than Dallas
Dak has way more leverage. I count 17 teams that could be possibilities, but they certainly won’t all be. Thing is, it only takes one. Every one of these teams upgrades in the next 1-2 years by adding Dak, until further notice.
Breaks down in the following categories:
3 teams currently have aging QB’s that are also expensive (high likelihood to at least make a play) - Rams, Jets, Steelers (sort of)
5 teams with mediocre QB’s that are also expensive or going to be pretty expensive (medium / high likelihood to make a play, depending on the team) - Seahawks, Bucs, Jags, Cards, Giants.
8 teams with completely unproven rookie or 2nd year QB’s. Complete wild card group. (medium probability to pursue Dak…depends on 2024 season). At least half of these guys will suck. Titans, Pats, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Commanders, Colts, Panthers.
1 team with a unique, cheap QB room consisting of an aging veteran and a younger bust, both on 1 year deals. Steelers. Would say high probability to pursue Dak, but they aren’t known for spending big in FA. Medium / Low probability.
1 team with a very hyped rookie QB that will likely get more than one year to figure it out. Bears - Low probability.
1. Rams - Stafford and Cooper Kupp are both old and due a cap hit of a combined $80 million in ‘24 and ‘25. Gross. Rams will want to get younger at both spots soon.
2. Seattle - Geno Smith will only have 1 year left on his deal when Dak hits FA. Only $38 million cap hit….he’d be a great trade piece for a team that’s a QB away if they want to make room for Dak, especially since he doesn’t have a tag restriction.
3. Tennessee - No proven QB and not really dumping hardly any money on QB’s currently. Can definitely make a play if they want. Maybe, maybe not….depends on Levis taking a step forward. More will be known in 2025.
4. New England - Depends on Drake Maye’s development. More will be known here in 2025. Maybe, maybe not. They have no other answers. Not really their style to go out and get a bank breaker at any particular position….but there’s never been a guy on the market of Dak’s pedigree either. I’d say not likely, but not impossible.
5. Tampa - Baker Mayfield has 2 years left after 2024. If he spends another year in his mediocre zone like last year, he’ll be due a combined $80 million in cap hits in ‘25 and ‘26. You can bet your *** that Tampa will want to move him in that scenario, if Dak is available. That’s what’s so funny about your scenario. You really think Dallas would rather take a $40 million hit on Mayfield than a $50-$55 million hit on Dak? If so, they’ll certainly get the opportunity.
6. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence has been a perreniel disappointment (outside of one year), not stayed healthy, and will have only his team option year with a $25 million cap hit in 2025. An easily movable piece if Dak’s available.
7. Minnesota - same category as NE / Tennessee. They’ll see what they have in McCarthey in 2024.
8. Pittsburgh - two mediocre QB’s on 1-year deals in 2024…..both of whom are widely regarded as total headcases. 38 year old Russell Wilson is certainly NOT the long term answer. Its not costing them much to see if Tomlin can work his old school hard-asś magic on Fields, but fairly low probability of success. A wide open landing spot here in 2025 for somebody, potentially, even if its not Dak.
9. Carolina - Bryce Young had bust written all over him last year. Horrible organization, but one that could still make a max offer.
10. Denver - Same boat as NE / Tenn / Minnesota. Bo Nix will either suck or he won’t.
11. Las Vegas - same boat as Carolina. Bad organization….no proven QB….but could pay for one in 2025.
12. Washington - see the other rookie / 2nd year QB teams above.
13. Arizona - same boat as Tampa, but they have a better QB they can offer as trade bait, but same cost as Baker Mayfield.
14. Colts - same boat as rookie / 2nd year QB teams above.
15. Chicago - same boat as rookie / 2nd year QB teams above, but CW might get a longer leash than one year to prove himself. Probably not likely.
16. NY Giants - same boat as Tampa / Arizona. Mediocre QB with huge cap hits coming up….they’d gladly take Dak.
17. NY Jets - 43 year old Aaron Rodgers is a $52 million cap hit in 2025. Jets ain’t 17ing with that. Hopefully Dak isn’t 17ing with them, either, but a possibility nonetheless.
When over half of the NFL can potentially get a big upgrade from adding you, AND could potentially have a path to do it, you have your current team over a barrel, if you want to.