Yea if Auburn wants Kiffin he is gone. Kiffin has complained out loud about NIL at Ole Miss. He knows he's never going to win a national title there and he isn't going to be happy dealing with the ceiling there.
If Auburn was Kiffin's only choice, yes, he would go. But A&M has a good chance of being open in a year. And really any program is a year or two away from potentially opening up. I'm not sure Kiffin wants to go to Auburn and then have to choose between leaving after one or two years or staying at Auburn.
But, if you exclude A&M, not sure any other desirable programs look likely to come open.
- Alabama - Not sure he wants to follow Saban.
- LSU - Kelly looks like he will be there a while
- UF - Napier is probably going to get three years at least unless he tanks next year.
- Miami - Cristobal is probably going to get three years at least unless he tanks next year.
- USC - Think those bridges are burned?
- Oklahoma - Could come up next year, but hard to bet on.
- Texas - Is Sarkisian's seat hot? Not really sure what their sentiment is over there
- FSU - How hot is norvell's seat. Certainly not tearing it up and I assume they would fire him if they knew Kiffin would take the job.
Really just depends on how patient Lane is willing to be. If Auburn tries to get a commitment from Lane before the A&M job comes open (which I think is likely to happen; auburn certainly can't wait and guessing Jimbo is going to make it through early signing period if nothing else), I think that makes it less likely he takes the job. But that's a bet that he is willing to run the risk of the right job not coming around for another 2 or 3 years, when he may no longer be the hot name.
I think there is a decent chance he ends up in the same place as Mullen. Just very few programs that are an upgrade and it may take a little while for the right circumstance to come up. For all people bitched about Mullen's job hopping, he essentially shut off discussions with Miami twice because they didn't want to give him a significant raise. He wanted to upgrade but until that last year, he wasn't going to leave except for a significantly better position.