OT: Another storm gonna whack FL

[MtNittany]

Euro has landfall on Longboat Key.

 

[Fac]

Be safe everyone in Florida, Katrina, Ida and a few others survivor here.

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Meteorologists on Weather Channel as we speak saying that the water temp of the Gulf is at record highs… I am assuming this can’t be good

 

[MtNittany]

Meteorologists on Weather Channel as we speak saying that the water temp of the Gulf is at record highs… I am assuming this can’t be good

The Gulf is a big bay. It's very shallow.

 

[LionJim]

Yeah, I’ve been following this page and the models are indeed moving south.

MILTON Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Wow, a big shift south. Landfall now looks to be between Venice and Punta Gorda.

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Wow, a big shift south. Landfall now looks to be between Venice and Punta Gorda.

Naples gonna get hit hard?

 

[LionJim]

Naples gonna get hit hard?

Looks as if Naples and Tampa are bookends. No lines through either, just strictly between them.

MILTON Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

 

[Bwifan]

No one knows if the current jog south is a trend or a wobble. Don't hang on every wiggle. Large hurricanes do wobble and move around not taking a linear line. Have to give it more time as well as what the 18z models project before people should jump on the south movement.

 

[PSU87]

Wow, a big shift south. Landfall now looks to be between Venice and Punta Gorda.

Looks like the 120 year Tampa major hurricane shield might stay intact....

 

[LionJim]

No one knows if the current jog south is a trend or a wobble. Don't hang on every wiggle. Large hurricanes do wobble and move around not taking a linear line. Have to give it more time as well as what the 18z models project before people should jump on the south movement.

Thanks for this. You’ve displayed your meteorology bonafides throughout this thread, good job. I’m just a schmuck with a dear friend living in Tampa.

 

[Nitt1300]

Meteorologists on Weather Channel as we speak saying that the water temp of the Gulf is at record highs… I am assuming this can’t be good

heat is the power source of a hurricane, so I would think not

 

[PSU87]

No one knows if the current jog south is a trend or a wobble. Don't hang on every wiggle. Large hurricanes do wobble and move around not taking a linear line. Have to give it more time as well as what the 18z models project before people should jump on the south movement.

At 3 days out, you have no choice but to pay attention to the wobbles. Based on the 5pm update a whole bunch of people around Port Charlotte and Cape Coral have to rethink their evac plans. If they sit and see if it wobbles back....they won't have time.
I just went from a storm surge watch to a storm surge warning.

If I was living in Tampa, I certainly wouldn't be going back home just yet, but my confidence in having a home to go back to just skyrocketed.

 

[PSU87]

Thanks for this. You’ve displayed your meteorology bonafides throughout this thread, good job. I’m just a schmuck with a dear friend living in Tampa.

Your dear friend ain't out of the woods, but after 20 years of watching these things, I would tell him he should feel an order of magnitude better than this morning.

 

[Nittany.Lion]

No one knows if the current jog south is a trend or a wobble. Don't hang on every wiggle. Large hurricanes do wobble and move around not taking a linear line. Have to give it more time as well as what the 18z models project before people should jump on the south movement.

When a hurricane is this close, the expected error in the track is about 50 miles on either side of the predicted track.

 

[BobPSU92]

Models seem to be trending south.

 

[Bwifan]

At 3 days out, you have no choice but to pay attention to the wobbles. Based on the 5pm update a whole bunch of people around Port Charlotte and Cape Coral have to rethink their evac plans. If they sit and see if it wobbles back....they won't have time.
I just went from a storm surge watch to a storm surge warning.

If I was living in Tampa, I certainly wouldn't be going back home just yet, but my confidence in having a home to go back to just skyrocketed.

Well the NAM model highest mesoscale model just showed a 919mb hurricane slamming into Tampa tomorrow night so what are you going to do now?

 

[BobPSU92]

I think I'll get backside winds.

Reconsider your diet?

 

[PSU87]

Well the NAM model highest mesoscale model just showed a 919mb hurricane slamming into Tampa tomorrow night so what are you going to do now?
View attachment 666898

Based on a single run of a single model, I'm doing precisely nothing.

What i am doing is paying attention to the TCVX...the model blend that the NHC relies heavily on. What I am doing is looking at the fact that Helene was right of track for almost her entire existence, and Milton seems to be following suit.

And if live on a canal in Port Charlotte I'm
paying attention to the wobble, trusting in the experts at the NHC and making an evac plan.