Talking to my friend (PSUer) on Longboat Key yesterday. He's seen the bays empty and people walk out on them when the storm winds blow to the west. Unfortunately, that ain't happening and there's an endless source of water to toss on the mainland.
OT: Another storm gonna whack FL
- Thread starter MtNittany
- Start date
"All the time" depends a lot on where in FL. I've lived 2 blocks from the ocean for 20 years, and have evacuated 4 times (2 of them in one year, 2004).
Until Nicole hit in 2022, the last landfalling hurricane on the East Coast of Florida was Katrina in 2005. That's 16 years without a hit, and Nicole was a glorified tropical storm.
Tampa hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since 1921. My in laws in St Pete are evacuating for Milton making it only the 2nd time in 20 years they've evacuated.
SW FL and Pandhandle ate a different story...
What happened to hurricanes coming up the east coast? These days they all seem to be in the gulf.Latest Euro Model. Landfall should be Thursday morning. Be on your toes and make your preps PSU Floridians.
I had a question for all of the "experts" on the board. And yes, I put quotes on there damnit.
From looking at the origin of Milton, it seems it actually formed in the Gulf of Mexico rather than in the Atlantic like most Hurricanes I have paid attention to do. How typical is it that a Hurricane comes from that direction rather than from the Atlantic? Or did it in fact originate in the Atlantic as a smaller storm and just grow in the gulf?
From looking at the origin of Milton, it seems it actually formed in the Gulf of Mexico rather than in the Atlantic like most Hurricanes I have paid attention to do. How typical is it that a Hurricane comes from that direction rather than from the Atlantic? Or did it in fact originate in the Atlantic as a smaller storm and just grow in the gulf?
Very typical. Early season, most hurricanes develop coming off the coast of Africa. Late season activity shifts more to the Gulf
Got it. As someone who lives in NJ, I tend to pay attention to the Atlantic ones more much I guess.
Thanks for the reply!
Anyone in FL - watch this. Always watch Mike and always check the storm2k.org message boards. Ignore the weather channel and rely on local news.
Mandatory evacuation order for Marco Island, way south of current path. This is going to be a really bad week in in FLA
That was the most "eye time" I've seen for sure. Crazy that it held together so well over the state. Not a big deal by the time it exited over here though.
There is a lot to unravel in your question. First much of Milton actually came over the mountains from the pacific and formed in the caribbean. Regarding where storms start/develop and where they end, there are so many factors that go into that.... Upper level winds act as a steering mechanism, approaching fronts from the opposite direction, placement of high and low pressure systems in the U.S. and where they go or stall.... the NAO (north atlantic oscillation) affects hurricanes. There are so many factors that is why there is always a large cone, plus as a hurricane strengthens it at times almost dictates where it wants to go.....
I lived in Key largo when Andrew struck, Evac to Cape Coral, returned the next day. It was awful. I'm born and raised in S Florida, never saw anything like that devastation. Almost nothing kin Key largo.
I went w/ a friend to Homestead to help his parents. He grew up there and couldn't find the house. Since then they paint street names on the curbs.I lived in Key largo when Andrew struck, Evac to Cape Coral, returned the next day. It was awful. I'm born and raised in S Florida, never saw anything like that devastation. Almost nothing kin Key largo.
Andrew ripped the weather station off the roof of the NHC building. Winds could have been 225 mph. We'll never know. Stuff like this doesn't happen in tropical storms though:
95N is already backed up south of Jacksonville to a crawl. Water on the shelves is running out at least at the Publix I just went to, but I'm sure it's like that everywhere. It's a **it show already for the most part. Friends in Fort Meyers are having trouble finding gas already.
If I was in Tampa area, I'd head to Everglades City. Should be ok and plenty of square grouper probably.
My grandparents had a place on Chokoloskee Island right there. Some of the best fishing in the world there. Also where many of the stone crab boats go out of....
You ever watch the Docu Square Grouper? Worth the watch like Cocaine Cowboys.
No I haven't see that. Will put it on my to do list. Also saw they just ordered mandatory evacuations at Chokoloskee and Collier county
I've actually been to Chokoloskee on a turf appointment on the way back from Naples on another appointment (prolly 20 years ago). I thought the whole area was cool. I went to the bar they filmed some of the documentary at.
Cool little restaurant on Chokoloskee called Havana Cafe and I used to take my grandmother to City Seafood in Everglades City. I always load up on stone crabs when there because they are so cheap. We are planning a guys camping trip there this winter and kayak out to 10,000 islands and fish and hike all the islands for a long weekend. Dolphins swim next to your kayak paddling out from the ranger station. Beautiful area.... I miss going to visit my grandparents there.
My BIL headed back to Tampa from PA yesterday.
Bad judgement.
Bad judgement.
The Mayor of Tampa just said "if you choose to stay in one of the evacuation areas, you are going to die".
That's effed up. I would think your ears would pop if you were near that pressure.
Latest update - Dropped from Cat 5 to Cat 4
1:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.1°N 89.2°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 924 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
1:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.1°N 89.2°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 924 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
Have a place in south Tampa (block off Bayshore). Was able to get car into a parking garage and to get out of town back here to Denver. Most of south Tampa / Hyde park will flood
Insane
Insane
This could end up being the most expensive storm in history....
1. High population density in the area of landfall means more structures to damage.
2. Area has not seen a major hurricane landfall in 100 years, so there have been no storms to "weed out" the weaker structures and the flood prone ones.
Will be bad for Tampa Bay no matter what, but they've really gotta be hoping for landfall south of the mouth of the bay.
1. High population density in the area of landfall means more structures to damage.
2. Area has not seen a major hurricane landfall in 100 years, so there have been no storms to "weed out" the weaker structures and the flood prone ones.
Will be bad for Tampa Bay no matter what, but they've really gotta be hoping for landfall south of the mouth of the bay.
Wishing our friends in Florida all the best. No doubt damage to property and belongings is stressful, but above all, stay safe.
Models seem to be trending south. I think Tampa Bay is gonna get by by the skin of their teeth. Hope so anyway.
I think the path across the state is going to be much more horizontal than we anticipated. We'll see.
Yeah, I’ve been following this page and the models are indeed moving south.
It would have to be considerably south to help me, because if it's south of me i get the onshore flow which is way worse
I have eastern exposure. I think I'll get backside winds. No surge here ever due to the bluffs.
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