OT: Another storm gonna whack FL
- Thread starter MtNittany
- Start date
Looks as if Naples and Tampa are bookends. No lines through either, just strictly between them.
No one knows if the current jog south is a trend or a wobble. Don't hang on every wiggle. Large hurricanes do wobble and move around not taking a linear line. Have to give it more time as well as what the 18z models project before people should jump on the south movement.
Thanks for this. You’ve displayed your meteorology bonafides throughout this thread, good job. I’m just a schmuck with a dear friend living in Tampa.
heat is the power source of a hurricane, so I would think not
At 3 days out, you have no choice but to pay attention to the wobbles. Based on the 5pm update a whole bunch of people around Port Charlotte and Cape Coral have to rethink their evac plans. If they sit and see if it wobbles back....they won't have time.
I just went from a storm surge watch to a storm surge warning.
If I was living in Tampa, I certainly wouldn't be going back home just yet, but my confidence in having a home to go back to just skyrocketed.
Your dear friend ain't out of the woods, but after 20 years of watching these things, I would tell him he should feel an order of magnitude better than this morning.
When a hurricane is this close, the expected error in the track is about 50 miles on either side of the predicted track.
Well the NAM model highest mesoscale model just showed a 919mb hurricane slamming into Tampa tomorrow night so what are you going to do now?
Based on a single run of a single model, I'm doing precisely nothing.
What i am doing is paying attention to the TCVX...the model blend that the NHC relies heavily on. What I am doing is looking at the fact that Helene was right of track for almost her entire existence, and Milton seems to be following suit.
And if live on a canal in Port Charlotte I'm
paying attention to the wobble, trusting in the experts at the NHC and making an evac plan.
An acquaintance of ours semi-retired part-time in Sarasota, almost beachfront property. They tried to evacuate to Jax, but there's no gas, so they couldn't go anywhere. They're stuck there.
Good luck trusting it and all the other NAM models followed suit. Anywho all we can do is monitor it. Although all my friends found a few bars open in St Pete and are enjoying some bourbon and pre gaming.
Tampa is protected against hurricanes by a Native American blessing from its burial mounds. It won‘t get hit.
You're missing the point....
I was responding to your post about not paying attention to the wobbles. When you are in the cone you HAVE to pay attention to the wobbles. It's not about "trusting" anything per se. Your life is on the line...you can't ignore the wobbles.
Meanwhile, Milton continues to ignore the wobbles and continues to track consistently to the right of the forecast track.
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From a professional Met on storm2k.org:
"It's still hard to pinpoint the exact landfall. I'm using satellite & radar to measure 2 an 3-hr movement. Currently I'm getting a 2-hr movement toward 35 deg at 17 kts, which would put the center into northern Tampa Bay by 7pm this evening. However, we do expect more of an ENE movement at some point. Our forecast is still a little south of Sarasota, but I'd like to see some ENE movement by early this afternoon to keep it out of TB."
"It's still hard to pinpoint the exact landfall. I'm using satellite & radar to measure 2 an 3-hr movement. Currently I'm getting a 2-hr movement toward 35 deg at 17 kts, which would put the center into northern Tampa Bay by 7pm this evening. However, we do expect more of an ENE movement at some point. Our forecast is still a little south of Sarasota, but I'd like to see some ENE movement by early this afternoon to keep it out of TB."
I have a old girlfriend I still stay in touch with, former Kentucky cheerleader whom I probably should have married... anyway, she is in final stages of a terrible divorce and their second home is in Sarasota. The ex husband is currently set to get that home in divorce. However, divorce was scheduled to be finalized 10/16. That's a bad beat.
Social media is forever, does your girl read your phone?
The last thing my lovely current wife would do was dig into, "that silly penn state board you are on all the time"
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