Rising costs of everything........

horshack.sixpack

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I don’t get the comparison of gold and bitcoin. Gold has been valuable since man discovered it. Bitcoin is a number on a computer. How do you use it if you can’t access a connection to the internet?

In a true nightmare scenario, you think someone is trading you something tangible of value for a number on a computer?
The Russians invaded, here... write down this hash real quick and don't say I never gave you anything.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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OM17G stop.
Season 4 No GIF by The Office
 

johnson86-1

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I voted for him three times but his economic reaction to COVID is the main reason things went out of control from 2021-24. Biden's policies did not help, but PPP and the stimulus checks were a disaster for keeping inflation down.

My guess is that about half of PPP wasn't needed and half the rest was outright fraud. Billions wasted. You can argue what would have happened if PPP and the stimulus didn't happen and I would argue that short term pain would have made us better off in the long run.

As the chart above shows, M2 is out of hand. There is going to be a reckoning.
Way less than half of PPP was needed. For the most part, you couldn't really take advantage of it if your business was severely impacted or shut down. It was just a handout.

Overall, the COVID response was one of the most self evidently stupid and harmful government policies in a long, long time. Only thing I can think of off hand is all the stupid the government did to prolong the Great Depression. I would give them a pass for lack of knowledge but when you're spraying poison on perfectly good food while starving people watch, it doesn't take an advanced degree in economics to know that's evil. That was a huge failing by Trump, and the only excuse for him is that he was surrounded by a combination of stupid and corrupt people and he wasn't principled enough to actually lead on the issue.
 
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horshack.sixpack

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Correct. Everyone is 17ed in a nightmare scenario outside of people who planned ahead with tangible assets they can survive on and trade with.

The BTC bros tout it for if/when the dollar collapses and the globe transitions to a new reserve currency. They can simply sell for new currency and trade in that. They may think it will be the new reserve currency as well. Either way...the hype behind that drives the price up. Still doesn't change the fact that it's backed by nothing but vibes and hopes that the dollar sucks.

To me, if the dollar crashes and my portfolio's USD value goes with it, I still have ownership interests in profit generating businesses that own tangible assets/processes (ie they do things people need). If the dollar can't buy my stock certificate, then some other currency would. I'd prefer for the dollar to be stable, but ultimately I don't care if I have to cash out for USD or wompum (or BTC) so long as I'm selling for fair value of the assets and can use whatever currency I'm settling in.

So at the end of the day, would I rather invest in a stable operating business or a digital currency? Still haven't heard any decent argument for digital currency that doesn't sound like pure speculation on an intangible idea.
 

johnson86-1

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Great indicator of highlighted above: If you meet a woman and her parents are well off and her mother doesn't work, RUN.
I know a few guys that are struggling with this. Wife wants to stay at home but live a life that requires a wildly successful single earner or two very good earners, and somehow it's the husband constantly catching fallout because reality exists. The crazy thing is that for the most part, the father in laws in those groups, who were obviously very successful to have a stay at home wife while paying for private school and new cars and vacations and college, etc., are still working in their late 60's. I don't know how much of that is because their job is relatively easy and fulfilling versus them just not being able to retire because they have always spent a **** ton of money.
 

ckDOG

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This is me too. I'm optimistic that (related to ckDOG's comment) Trump and his team HAVE studied this tariff issue and will do more targeted tariffs and already have working plans for manufacturing in the US. I highly doubt he/they are just going into it willy-nilly and wildly throwing tariffs around without considering all that. I know glfr and horshack are going to disagree with my assumption about Trump's intent.

And about the overall tariffs on China and Mexico (and other countries he threatened), I think those are mostly negotiating tactics. He may even have to make some of them official to show he's serious, but I think the day they take effect, Mexico at least would start backing down. China may welcome the face off, who knows.

Overall, Trump is America first and is willing to face down other countries if he thinks it puts us in a better position long term, which I appreciate. I don't always like what he says or the way he says it, but I'd damn sure prefer his bluster to our recent approach of taking it up the rear while whispering "Don't".
We're trending the correct direction now in onshoring production. Have been for a few years now. There shouldn't be any reason to rock the boat aside from certain parts of the supply chain. Corp tax reductions will speed it up as well (but likely not deficit friendly).

I'm hopeful that what you lay out is true and that the bombast is just public positioning for negotiating leverage. You just never know with that guy. Could be 4D chess. Could also have his ego and desire to "win" kick in and move us to a system funded solely by tariffs. 🤷🏼‍♂️


 
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johnson86-1

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I have posted countless criticisms of Biden related to how his Administration handled economic messaging, inflation messaging, and economic policy.



You are really struggling here. You seem to struggle with issues that don't have a simple black/white good/bad a/b binary narrative where one side is the obvious correct path.
Because the problem was messaging, not the actual horrible policies and incompetent administration. :rolleyes:
 

Darryl Steight

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Yep, and he self admits he’s not Christian either but has the chops to get the support of a majority of Christian voters on his rise to power.
I think you have old info. He said from the podium just this week that he believes God literally saved him from the assassin's bullet. He's been claiming Christian beliefs out loud for a while now.

I have faith that people can have an awakening (especially after some life-altering event slaps them in the face), find God at some point along their journey on earth, and then begin to change their beliefs and actions. Lord knows I don't act like it all the time (imperfect human here ✋), but it happened to me, actually.

It's up to you whether (a) you believe that can happen, and (b) you believe it truly happened to Trump. I'm just raising the point, he's claiming to be a Christian now.
 
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johnson86-1

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All this. I don't know when we stopped being able to criticize our own, but if we don't they will do stupid shìt from time to time.

615 doesn't need to watch this., but I'll drop this here. In about 2 minutes Milton Friedman explains inflation causes and solutions better than anyone else could in a semester long course.. Please watch.


Semi-related, although this is really just a matter of people looking otu for their own self interest, but you hardly see any criticism of the QBI deduction. I'm loath to call anything allowing people to keep their own money a giveaway, but that is one tax deduction that is truly a give away. There's zero policy justification for it. Some moron that doesn't understand corporate tax rates complained that corporations were going to pay less than pass through entities in taxes (which they objectively were not) and before anybody finished explaining how stupid that was, enough representatives and senators realized how much money that would save them personally, and it was suddenly voted into law.

They really should get rid of that, eliminate the SALT entirely, and also explicitly prohibit the fraud that allows LLC owners to pay their personal state income tax through their LLC and get around the SALT cap.
 

mstateglfr

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This is me too. I'm optimistic that (related to ckDOG's comment) Trump and his team HAVE studied this tariff issue and will do more targeted tariffs and already have working plans for manufacturing in the US. I highly doubt he/they are just going into it willy-nilly and wildly throwing tariffs around without considering all that. I know glfr and horshack are going to disagree with my assumption about Trump's intent.

And about the overall tariffs on China and Mexico (and other countries he threatened), I think those are mostly negotiating tactics. He may even have to make some of them official to show he's serious, but I think the day they take effect, Mexico at least would start backing down. China may welcome the face off, who knows.

Overall, Trump is America first and is willing to face down other countries if he thinks it puts us in a better position long term, which I appreciate. I don't always like what he says or the way he says it, but I'd damn sure prefer his bluster to our recent approach of taking it up the rear while whispering "Don't".
Genuinely, I hope Trump and his Administration have studied the tariff issue and whatever changes they make will be targeted and will have sound reasoning behind the decisions.
If he is able to keep imported prices down while maintaining exported goods across the board and increasing exported goods in markets/industries that were lower before, well I will be really happy and I will gladly read all about the ways in which he and his Administration accomplished such an impressive challenge.

I have been very vocal on how disappointing I found the prior Administration when it came to explaining plans, explaining accomplishments, and acknowledging some issues which needed to be addressed.
I like the idea of a president that more directly acknowledges an issue hurting the US and calls out people/countries that are working to keep the hurtful issue alive.



Anyways, you are correct and I disagree with your confidence that Trump and his Administration have deeply studied the tariff issue. I think he is going into it 'willy-nilly and wildly throwing tariffs around without considering that'. I think he is doing that because he has a long history of doing that, and has not given me any reason to think he has changed.

You mention that the tariff threats may just be negotiating tactics. Perhaps that is true.
As I said before- when he gets something done he is praised for doing 'something', even if it is projected to be a negative for the country and even if it turns out to be a negative for the country. And when he has promised to do something then doesn't, the lack of accomplishment has often been hailed as a powerful bluff and claimed to no longer be needed. So he gets a 'win' either way.
You are setting yourself up for that very justification with these tariffs. You say you believe he will be smart about implementing them and you also say you believe the tariff threats to Mexico, China, and other countries are just a negotiating tactic. So whatever the outcome is- you will be able to justify it as a sound outcome. If he implements them, you will believe it was a well studied and reasoned decision. If he fails to implement them, you will believe he was using tariffs as a negotiating tactic and got us the best deal possible.
Thats the magic of giving someone a win for both doing and not doing what they promised to do.
 

johnson86-1

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Any tariff leveed will be payed by the American consumer. They are not payed by foreign countries. They are essentially sales taxes on foreign goods.
That's not quite how tax incidence works. It's probably pretty close in this instance just like employees probably bear the vast majority of the employer side of FICA, but there are going to be goods where foreign producers bear a portion of the incidence to remain competitive.
 

Darryl Steight

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I'm hopeful that what you lay out is true and that the bombast is just public positioning for negotiating leverage. You just never know with that guy. Could be 4D chess. Could also have his ego and desire to "win" kick in and move us to a system funded solely by tariffs. 🤷🏼‍♂️
100% agree on this. No one really knows yet, and let's hope my assumption is right. If he's truly only a racist nazi madman hellbent on weilding total control and never letting go, and not a shrewd businessman with the cajones to negotiate on behalf of the US (my hope)... we are in for a rough ride. We shall see.
 

mcdawg22

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If Facebook has taught me anything it's that the Democrats manipulate the price of gas. Either they make it high when Republicans are in office to make themselves look good, or they make it lower near election time to make themselves look good.

It's inarguable, really**
Like I’ve said many times before, gas was crazy high in Bush’s second term. If a Rep president with an oil and gas background and majorities in both bodies of Congress cannot manipulate oil prices nobody can. The exception being shutting off domestic production, sanctioning oil producers, or shutting down the country so nobody is driving.
 

johnson86-1

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Like I’ve said many times before, gas was crazy high in Bush’s second term. If a Rep president with an oil and gas background and majorities in both bodies of Congress cannot manipulate oil prices nobody can. The exception being shutting off domestic production, sanctioning oil producers, or shutting down the country so nobody is driving.
Or maybe the fact that gas was crazy high when there was a president with interests in the oil and gas industry proves the president can manipulate gas prices.**
 
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mstateglfr

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Because the problem was messaging, not the actual horrible policies and incompetent administration. :rolleyes:
Wow that is 17ed up- you bolded my two comments about messaging, ignored my comment about ECONOMIC POLICY, and then sarcastically respond about how the problem was more than just messaging and policy was an issue.
Yep, I clearly stated I disliked how some messaging and some ECONOMIC POLICY was handled.

Maybe if I put it in red this time, you will acknowledge it.
 

vhdawg

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He can fail to implement destructive policy and claim that it was just a bluff to get whatever less extreme thing is actually happening and he will be both praised and the lack of fulfilling a promise wont hurt him.
That's called negotiation, and the guy's book from 35 years ago is entitled The Art Of The Deal, and tells exactly how he goes about doing it.
 

johnson86-1

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Wow that is 17ed up- you bolded my two comments about messaging, ignored my comment about ECONOMIC POLICY, and then sarcastically respond about how the problem was more than just messaging and policy was an issue.
Yep, I clearly stated I disliked how some messaging and some ECONOMIC POLICY was handled.

Maybe if I put it in red this time, you will acknowledge it.
I saw the last, I just thought it was funny. It's kind of a trope that democrats are always talking about how their messaging needs tweaking for unpopular policies, as if it's impossible that they could just be wrong on the policy and it's going to be unpopular no matter how it's explained because it's bad policy.

Whoever has been in charge for the last four years have been wrong about most things, and the problem wasn't messaging.
 

mstateglfr

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Or maybe the fact that gas was crazy high when there was a president with interests in the oil and gas industry proves the president can manipulate gas prices.**


Hmm. Well ok thats something to chew on.

But if Landman taught me anything, its that a barrel of oil needs to stay between $76 and $88 for everything to run smoothly. Too much, like at the end of Bush's time, and bad things happen.
 

Darryl Steight

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As I said before- when he gets something done he is praised for doing 'something', even if it is projected to be a negative for the country and even if it turns out to be a negative for the country. And when he has promised to do something then doesn't, the lack of accomplishment has often been hailed as a powerful bluff and claimed to no longer be needed. So he gets a 'win' either way.
You are setting yourself up for that very justification with these tariffs. You say you believe he will be smart about implementing them and you also say you believe the tariff threats to Mexico, China, and other countries are just a negotiating tactic. So whatever the outcome is- you will be able to justify it as a sound outcome. If he implements them, you will believe it was a well studied and reasoned decision. If he fails to implement them, you will believe he was using tariffs as a negotiating tactic and got us the best deal possible.
Thats the magic of giving someone a win for both doing and not doing what they promised to do.
Not me buddy. I'm definitely not setting this up so he gets credit either way. I want us to win and will give credit if so. The US will either win or lose this economic fight domestically, and we'll either win or lose the political fight with China. The president is playing out a hand in the way he thinks he can get wins on both. I think we'll know by the end of this year which direction both situations are headed, so maybe we can evaluate fairly then.

I'll call him out for handling it wrong if indeed he either caves to China, or if these tariffs end up (long term) tanking our economy. I do think there will be some short term pain economically (interest rates, prices, other?) to get this huge ship turned around, but I don't think that can be avoided.
 

615dawg

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I know a few guys that are struggling with this. Wife wants to stay at home but live a life that requires a wildly successful single earner or two very good earners, and somehow it's the husband constantly catching fallout because reality exists. The crazy thing is that for the most part, the father in laws in those groups, who were obviously very successful to have a stay at home wife while paying for private school and new cars and vacations and college, etc., are still working in their late 60's. I don't know how much of that is because their job is relatively easy and fulfilling versus them just not being able to retire because they have always spent a **** ton of money.
Definitely truth here. A generation ago, Jackson Prep was like $6,000 for tuition and it was by far the highest. Schools like UCS were like $3,200. Prep just increased their tuition to $18,000. Having three kids in a private school in Jackson now can easily run $40-$50k just for tuition. That is absurd.

One of the dads I'm friends with is struggling bad. Reunion. Two kids in private school. Multiple vacations. He told me recently he is maxed out on Home Equity, credit cards and even a personal signature loan. Doesn't know how he's going to make it. Wife has a college degree and won't work a full time job because it would cramp her style.

She filed for divorce after Christmas. She's going to get the kids and everything. Her parents will bail her out. He will have to file for bankruptcy.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I know a few guys that are struggling with this. Wife wants to stay at home but live a life that requires a wildly successful single earner or two very good earners, and somehow it's the husband constantly catching fallout because reality exists. The crazy thing is that for the most part, the father in laws in those groups, who were obviously very successful to have a stay at home wife while paying for private school and new cars and vacations and college, etc., are still working in their late 60's. I don't know how much of that is because their job is relatively easy and fulfilling versus them just not being able to retire because they have always spent a **** ton of money.
Yeah most folks are not rich, even though they may make a big salary, so spending the type of money that is typical around, say, Madison, is going to cost yo asss. Either now or later. The old money is still chillin' around Eastover and in a select few enclaves, not in your typical modern painted brick houses with granite countertops.

So @Choctaw Dawg I'd revise what you said about 'well off' to 'suburban well off'. That status is just too alluring for most typical people to use their brains.
 

Choctaw Dawg

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Definitely truth here. A generation ago, Jackson Prep was like $6,000 for tuition and it was by far the highest. Schools like UCS were like $3,200. Prep just increased their tuition to $18,000. Having three kids in a private school in Jackson now can easily run $40-$50k just for tuition. That is absurd.

One of the dads I'm friends with is struggling bad. Reunion. Two kids in private school. Multiple vacations. He told me recently he is maxed out on Home Equity, credit cards and even a personal signature loan. Doesn't know how he's going to make it. Wife has a college degree and won't work a full time job because it would cramp her style.

She filed for divorce after Christmas. She's going to get the kids and everything. Her parents will bail her out. He will have to file for bankruptcy.
Hope he gets the help he needs, I know that guy is spiraling.
 

ronpolk

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Way less than half of PPP was needed. For the most part, you couldn't really take advantage of it if your business was severely impacted or shut down. It was just a handout.

Overall, the COVID response was one of the most self evidently stupid and harmful government policies in a long, long time. Only thing I can think of off hand is all the stupid the government did to prolong the Great Depression. I would give them a pass for lack of knowledge but when you're spraying poison on perfectly good food while starving people watch, it doesn't take an advanced degree in economics to know that's evil. That was a huge failing by Trump, and the only excuse for him is that he was surrounded by a combination of stupid and corrupt people and he wasn't principled enough to actually lead on the issue.
I think PPP was well intentioned but man you’re right it will probably be the biggest money grab in history. Working in banking, I can tell you the majority of financial statements I have seen saw very little impact from Covid. PPP money ended up buying more business owners prime hunting land than anything else.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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Definitely truth here. A generation ago, Jackson Prep was like $6,000 for tuition and it was by far the highest. Schools like UCS were like $3,200. Prep just increased their tuition to $18,000. Having three kids in a private school in Jackson now can easily run $40-$50k just for tuition. That is absurd.

One of the dads I'm friends with is struggling bad. Reunion. Two kids in private school. Multiple vacations. He told me recently he is maxed out on Home Equity, credit cards and even a personal signature loan. Doesn't know how he's going to make it. Wife has a college degree and won't work a full time job because it would cramp her style.

She filed for divorce after Christmas. She's going to get the kids and everything. Her parents will bail her out. He will have to file for bankruptcy.
I bet she's already got a new boyfriend too. Maybe not public.....but he's there. Branch swing.

That's some ruthless shlt.
 

615dawg

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I bet she's already got a new boyfriend too. Maybe not public.....but he's there. Branch swing.

That's some ruthless shlt.
The amount of divorce amongst people I know (friends and acquaintances) has skyrocketed in the past 5 years. All with school aged children. Wives are living their best life on Instagram while the husbands are barely able to get up in the morning because of despair.

Like I said - young guys that are just here to talk Mississippi State sports - take heart - pick a good wife. Its the most important financial decision you will make.
 

patdog

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May 28, 2007
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Definitely truth here. A generation ago, Jackson Prep was like $6,000 for tuition and it was by far the highest. Schools like UCS were like $3,200. Prep just increased their tuition to $18,000. Having three kids in a private school in Jackson now can easily run $40-$50k just for tuition. That is absurd.

One of the dads I'm friends with is struggling bad. Reunion. Two kids in private school. Multiple vacations. He told me recently he is maxed out on Home Equity, credit cards and even a personal signature loan. Doesn't know how he's going to make it. Wife has a college degree and won't work a full time job because it would cramp her style.

She filed for divorce after Christmas. She's going to get the kids and everything. Her parents will bail her out. He will have to file for bankruptcy.
That really sucks. Rule of thumb, if your carrying balance on your credit cards or tapping into you equity line for anything other than home improvements you probably need to take a look at your spending. One thing I’ll never understand is you’re in one of the top 5 school
Districts in the state, why are your kids going to private school.
 

patdog

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I think PPP was well intentioned but man you’re right it will probably be the biggest money grab in history. Working in banking, I can tell you the majority of financial statements I have seen saw very little impact from Covid. PPP money ended up buying more business owners prime hunting land than anything else.
I think you’re being generous. PPP was pandering from the start. It never made any sense at all.
 

615dawg

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That really sucks. Rule of thumb, if your carrying balance on your credit cards or tapping into you equity line for anything other than home improvements you probably need to take a look at your spending. One thing I’ll never understand is you’re in one of the top 5 school
Districts in the state, why are your kids going to private school.
That's definitely perplexing. We are in Madison Central schools. Everything isn't perfect, but the education is great. And that's the job of a school and we are happy.
 

615dawg

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I think you’re being generous. PPP was pandering from the start. It never made any sense at all.
I know some local PPP stories that are unbelievable. Businesses who increased their revenue and profit over COVID got hundreds of thousands of dollars.
 
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mcdawg22

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Or maybe the fact that gas was crazy high when there was a president with interests in the oil and gas industry proves the president can manipulate gas prices.**
He was like, F U McCain, try and win with 4.00 a gallon gas.
 

ronpolk

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I think you’re being generous. PPP was pandering from the start. It never made any sense at all.
Yeah, you’re probably right. I did like the idea of protecting people’s job while being forced to shut down but things just never really worked out that way.
 

horshack.sixpack

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Definitely truth here. A generation ago, Jackson Prep was like $6,000 for tuition and it was by far the highest. Schools like UCS were like $3,200. Prep just increased their tuition to $18,000. Having three kids in a private school in Jackson now can easily run $40-$50k just for tuition. That is absurd.

One of the dads I'm friends with is struggling bad. Reunion. Two kids in private school. Multiple vacations. He told me recently he is maxed out on Home Equity, credit cards and even a personal signature loan. Doesn't know how he's going to make it. Wife has a college degree and won't work a full time job because it would cramp her style.

She filed for divorce after Christmas. She's going to get the kids and everything. Her parents will bail her out. He will have to file for bankruptcy.
That sucks. Find a low maintenance woman and your life will be a lot more enjoyable than one who insists on keeping up.
 

ronpolk

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I know some local PPP stories that are unbelievable. Businesses who increased their revenue and profit over COVID got hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Trust me…. I saw numerous companies have record profits and still pull in millions in PPP money.

The 2 industries I saw legitimately impacted by COVID was nursing homes and restaurants. I’m sure all healthcare was impacted I just see way more nursing homes. I’d argue restaurants were not so much impacted by COVID but more so employees not coming to work because they were given stimulus money. Also, inflation hurt restaurants real bad. They already operate on tiny margins anyway.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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Trust me…. I saw numerous companies have record profits and still pull in millions in PPP money.

The 2 industries I saw legitimately impacted by COVID was nursing homes and restaurants. I’m sure all healthcare was impacted I just see way more nursing homes. I’d argue restaurants were not so much impacted by COVID but more so employees not coming to work because they were given stimulus money. Also, inflation hurt restaurants real bad. They already operate on tiny margins anyway.
Correct......and if you are wanting to get the best bang for your buck as far as cutting spending......restaurants is going to be the place most people do it. I hate it for folks in that business, but it's just the truth. That's a lot of money to spend just to shlt it all out the next morning.

Sucks too because I love eating at restaurants. And I don't blame them for raising prices. I just can't afford to do it often.
 
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patdog

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I know some local PPP stories that are unbelievable. Businesses who increased their revenue and profit over COVID got hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Yep. Same here. And don’t even get me started on the employee retention tax credits scam. People should be going to jail for that one.
 
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