Rolling Blackouts?

[Ibdancin]

Still waiting to hear actual proof that’s what going on right now is because of policy changes and not simply an ungodly winter storm with an unbelievable increase in energy consumption

Why would anybody need to prove that in written form? It's right in front of you while people are having blackouts!

If the policy was to stay in front of demand, we would not be having rolling black outs.

If the policy was have 25% more available power for "just in case", we would not be having black outs.

 

[patdog]

Does anybody have any actual proof that the short rolling blackouts are because of bad policy decisions? I can accept that one of the coldest winters of all time may lead to something like this happening and it not be unusual. I’m not saying it’s not because of policy decisions. If it is, I would just like to see some proof. I’m getting tired of everything being either because of the evil liberal Democrats or the evil conservative Republicans based on which side you call home. It just feels like both sides are so ready to attack whenever something goes wrong.

This is NOT one of the coldest winters of all time. We have a cold snap like this about every 4-5 years. This isn’t anything new.

 

[mstateglfr]

Your president championed a 1.7 trillion dollar "infrastructure " bill a couple of years ago that was supposed to do precisely that.

Too many folks don't want to be confronted with facts like that, though, because it makes them realize they wasted their vote.

My president?
Your post has nothing to do with what I typed earlier.

I was pointing out the humor in someone who has historically wanted government to stay out of our business, wanting the government to come in and improve things by spending all the general 'billions' he mentioned on for profit entities(utility companies as a whole).
That's funny to me because its opposite what I would expect. It's inconsistent. That stuff makes me laugh.



And then you come in and ramble on about Biden, as if that is in any way a response to what I posted.
You are so eager to play gotcha, you will try it even when it's clearly forced and doesn't even apply.

 

[ckDOG]

The entire nation is not supplied by TVA.

Grids are connected and energy is bought and sold across them all the time. When more systems are stressed, this doesn't become an option. You're on your own. There's a legitimate gripe here if the TVA hasn't capacity planned appropriately. Is a 9 degree average temp across the entire network something that should be expected every winter or every other decade? I don't know and would like the answer to that. Feels like it would be closer to the decades length than an actual frequent recurrence. Could be wrong though.

Those strips start kicking in at 40 degrees depending on the model. Like I said, the temp being lower than that does not require more energy.

You are being intentionally being thick here for some reason. You know that more people plug their heating strips in and run for longer periods of time when it's 9 degrees out as compared to 39. They'll also set the temp warmer and draw more energy. I ran an electric unit in the attic last night bc it was 35 in there. It wouldn't cross my mind to run that when it's 20-32 outside.

 

[Ibdancin]

Grids are connected and energy is bought and sold across them all the time. When more systems are stressed, this doesn't become an option. You're on your own. There's a legitimate gripe here if the TVA hasn't capacity planned appropriately. Is a 9 degree average temp across the entire network something that should be expected every winter or every other decade? I don't know and would like the answer to that. Feels like it would be closer to the decades length than an actual frequent recurrence. Could be wrong though.

You are being intentionally being thick here for some reason. You know that more people plug their heating strips in and run for longer periods of time when it's 9 degrees out as compared to 39. They'll also set the temp warmer and draw more energy. I ran an electric unit in the attic last night bc it was 35 in there. It wouldn't cross my mind to run that when it's 20-32 outside.

All of this has already been addressed. I think you are not seeing the issue in what you are saying. First I stated 32 vs 9. The 40 is the heat pump kicking in that extra strip.

Next, turning your thermostat up to 90 does not use more electricity than setting it to 75. It simply is staying on longer. It works the same with AC. Turning it down to 65 vs 72 does not magically make the air out of the vents colder. It blows at what it blows. the thermostat just tells it when to stop blowing.

Last. If there were 10 million homes in MS, and all of them were running their heaters, it's not going to keep moving the simultaneous amounts used. It will be just for longer periods. That means that there should not be an issue if there was a proper policy in place.

 

[ronpolk]

All of this has already been addressed. I think you are not seeing the issue in what you are saying. First I stated 32 vs 9. The 40 is the heat pump kicking in that extra strip.

Next, turning your thermostat up to 90 does not use more electricity than setting it to 75. It simply is staying on longer. It works the same with AC. Turning it down to 65 vs 72 does not magically make the air out of the vents colder. It blows at what it blows. the thermostat just tells it when to stop blowing.

Last. If there were 10 million homes in MS, and all of them were running their heaters, it's not going to keep moving the simultaneous amounts used. It will be just for longer periods. That means that there should not be an issue if there was a proper policy in place.

Well if your heater and/or ac is running longer then it’s using more energy. Seriously, how are you not understanding this. Your electric bill is not based on how cold the air coming out of the vent is but how much you use, in other words, how often it runs

 

[ckDOG]

All of this has already been addressed. I think you are not seeing the issue in what you are saying. First I stated 32 vs 9. The 40 is the heat pump kicking in that extra strip.

Next, turning your thermostat up to 90 does not use more electricity than setting it to 75. It simply is staying on longer. It works the same with AC. Turning it down to 65 vs 72 does not magically make the air out of the vents colder. It blows at what it blows. the thermostat just tells it when to stop blowing.

Last. If there were 10 million homes in MS, and all of them were running their heaters, it's not going to keep moving the simultaneous amounts used. It will be just for longer periods. That means that there should not be an issue if there was a proper policy in place.

You are assuming all people make the same heating decisions at the same temps and are ignoring incremental electric heating elements. Energy consumption and temp are correlated. The colder it gets the more the system is strained in both max usage and period of time. More people start using as temp drops. Very simple concept.

The only issue here is if TVA has bonked on max capacity being too light - yesterday was absolutely a record setting peak and total usage event bc it was 17ing cold over the entire service area. I'm okay with a rare instance (especially if all I'm being asked is a couple 15-30 minute blackouts while I sleep). If getting to 90%+ percent of maximum is projected to be on the regular where blackouts are reactions to a normal heat wave, cold snap, or disruption at a plant or two, I better be seeing some net capacity increases in the very near future.

 

[WrapItDog]

Next, turning your thermostat up to 90 does not use more electricity than setting it to 75. It simply is staying on longer.

 

[Jack_Straw_Dawg]

Larger population in the southern US is a contributing factor too. Not to make it political but this is always something that gets ignored with so much illegal immigration

 

[HailStout]

This is NOT one of the coldest winters of all time. We have a cold snap like this about every 4-5 years. This isn’t anything new.

Okay. Let’s say that is true. We can all agree this is one hell of a cold snap. I’m still waiting on actual proof that these short term blackouts are because of policy changes rather than a really, really bad cold snap. Everyone just seems so angry about it, so I assume someone must have some cold hard facts that support their opinions. I don’t have proof that it isn’t, that’s why I’m not arguing the opposite side.

 

[ckDOG]

Larger population in the southern US is a contributing factor too. Not to make it political but this is always something that gets ignored with so much illegal immigration

I blame the CA and Austin liberals moving to Nashville with their high falutin 'lectric cars.

 

[Ibdancin]

Well if your heater and/or ac is running longer then it’s using more energy. Seriously, how are you not understanding this. Your electric bill is not based on how cold the air coming out of the vent is but how much you use, in other words, how often it runs

no no no. You are confusing how much you use over a given time vs Simultaneous occurring at the same time.

 

[garddog]

You find a lot more electric strip heating in the rural south. My understanding it is cheaper capital investment for limited use needs. There are utilities/co-ops in MS that have all-time peaks being driven by winter consumption because of this.

This is why you put in gas heat. This is why they use gas up north. This is part of the equation that the greenies will never acknowledge.

 

[ckDOG]

Okay. Let’s say that is true. We can all agree this is one hell of a cold snap. I’m still waiting on actual proof that these short term blackouts are because of policy changes rather than a really, really bad cold snap. Everyone just seems so angry about it, so I assume someone must have some cold hard facts that support their opinions. I don’t have proof that it isn’t, that’s why I’m not arguing the opposite side.

If anything, it's a flaw in short term business planning than long-term government policy. The TVA CEO is a very very well paid man that also is also variably comped for achieving certain metrics and goals. I'm going to assume there's not an incentive to sell less energy...blackouts would be bad for business.

The things you will hear folks on this forum get fired up about or so generic and long-term they won't be able to point to those impacting what is happening right now. They'll point to a shift to solar increase over the long term but overlook the $3.5B in gas plants planned for aging coal replacements. I believe there's also some small scale nuclear in the works as well. There will be an increase in solar as compared to today (and wind if it becomes more economical), but it's not some reckless abandon of what works to satisfy some pie in sky political ideals.

 

[Ibdancin]

You are assuming all people make the same heating decisions at the same temps and are ignoring incremental electric heating elements. Energy consumption and temp are correlated. The colder it gets the more the system is strained in both max usage and period of time. More people start using as temp drops. Very simple concept.

The only issue here is if TVA has bonked on max capacity being too light - yesterday was absolutely a record setting peak and total usage event bc it was 17ing cold over the entire service area. I'm okay with a rare instance (especially if all I'm being asked is a couple 15-30 minute blackouts while I sleep). If getting to 90%+ percent of maximum is projected to be on the regular where blackouts are reactions to a normal heat wave, cold snap, or disruption at a plant or two, I better be seeing some net capacity increases in the very near future.

I assume nothing.

Nobody is turning off their heat at 32. My comment was based on that fact.

All you are doing is proving the point. The facts are we have had these cold snaps to this degree many times. We have never been told there would be black outs used to keep the grid up. No matter how you want to, or even if that is what you are trying to do, that is piss poor policy and planning.

 

[ronpolk]

no no no. You are confusing how much you use over a given time vs Simultaneous occurring at the same time.

No, I’m not confusing anything. I’m simply saying more people using their heaters for longer is what’s putting the strain on the system. You’re the only one that seems confused by something.

 

[ckDOG]

I assume nothing.

Nobody is turning off their heat at 32. My comment was based on that fact.

All you are doing is proving the point. The facts are we have had these cold snaps to this degree many times. We have never been told there would be black outs used to keep the grid up. No matter how you want to, or even if that is what you are trying to do, that is piss poor policy and planning.

No, you are arguing that the same amount of people are tapping the grid in the same manner regardless of if it's cold or if it's really 17ing cold. As if peak usage isn't impacted by it being colder once you reach a certain point. You can take that stance for your individual situation, but millions of people don't behave exactly as you do.

 

[HailStout]

Why would anybody need to prove that in written form? It's right in front of you while people are having blackouts!

If the policy was to stay in front of demand, we would not be having rolling black outs.

If the policy was have 25% more available power for "just in case", we would not be having black outs.

I’m no electrical engineer, but it seems like maybe there is a point where you just can’t make more electricit. Once again, if a policy failed, show me. Don’t just give me how you feel about it

 

[patdog]

Okay. Let’s say that is true. We can all agree this is one hell of a cold snap. I’m still waiting on actual proof that these short term blackouts are because of policy changes rather than a really, really bad cold snap. Everyone just seems so angry about it, so I assume someone must have some cold hard facts that support their opinions. I don’t have proof that it isn’t, that’s why I’m not arguing the opposite side.

Let’s say it’s true because it is true. And yes, policies making it harder to build new power plants are causing our capacity to not keep up with the demand increases. Some of those policies are good. We definitely need to quit building coal plants. Some are bad. We need to be building more nuclear plants.

 

[Ibdancin]

No, I’m not confusing anything. I’m simply saying more people using their heaters for longer is what’s putting the strain on the system. You’re the only one that seems confused by something.

And that is wrong.

If you use, in simple terms, 1500 watts, it's 1500 watts. How long you use it is not the issue. The grid was about to over load due to all of the people using it while a system, or part of the network failed.

Let's keep with simple terms. If TVA can produce 45,000 watts at a steady rate per minute, 29 people could use a 1500 watt heater every day and all day and it should be ok. add a 30th person and the system in now at capacity. Add 10 more, and there is not enough to go around. So somebody is going to get shut down. Thus rolling back outs.

These systems are constantly making electricity. Longer has nothing to do with it.

This is why people in this thread and all over the TVA world is saying that this winter snap is not unusual. When I was a kid, we had them. Teen we had them. -12 / 1966, 0 / 1962, 2 / 1985. 4°F (1989).

The issue here is that we have no policy to make our grid better. There has been poor planning for the future. But we are rushing to kill sources and make news ones that make it even worse (Studies show we can not hand;e our needs and transition to electric cars). We have not done anything to accommodate any growth in any direction.


But we can forsure send billions and billions everywhere....

 

[Ibdancin]

If anything, it's a flaw in short term business planning than long-term government policy. The TVA CEO is a very very well paid man that also is also variably comped for achieving certain metrics and goals. I'm going to assume there's not an incentive to sell less energy...blackouts would be bad for business.

The things you will hear folks on this forum get fired up about or so generic and long-term they won't be able to point to those impacting what is happening right now. They'll point to a shift to solar increase over the long term but overlook the $3.5B in gas plants planned for aging coal replacements. I believe there's also some small scale nuclear in the works as well. There will be an increase in solar as compared to today (and wind if it becomes more economical), but it's not some reckless abandon of what works to satisfy some pie in sky political ideals.

Short term? LOL. TVA is owned by the federal gov.

The fact is, it is the policy of the Federal Gov. They own TVA.

 

[Ibdancin]

I’m no electrical engineer, but it seems like maybe there is a point where you just can’t make more electricit. Once again, if a policy failed, show me. Don’t just give me how you feel about it

It's been pointed out to you. Call it policy, lack of policy. it doesn't matter. Call it planning (phasing out energies) or lack of planning (no viable replacement). it doesn't matter.

Here we sit with billions after billions being sent to the wide world while our systems are failing. This is an issue of GOV... the TVA is owned by the GOV. It's why the President appoints the board to TVA.

You were told in school that the population would grow. You knew it. Are you saying DC did not?

 

[ronpolk]

And that is wrong.

If you use, in simple terms, 1500 watts, it's 1500 watts. How long you use it is not the issue. The grid was about to over load due to all of the people using it while a system, or part of the network failed.

Let's keep with simple terms. If TVA can produce 45,000 watts at a steady rate per minute, 29 people could use a 1500 watt heater every day and all day and it should be ok. add a 30th person and the system in now at capacity. Add 10 more, and there is not enough to go around. So somebody is going to get shut down. Thus rolling back outs.

These systems are constantly making electricity. Longer has nothing to do with it.

This is why people in this thread and all over the TVA world is saying that this winter snap is not unusual. When I was a kid, we had them. Teen we had them. -12 / 1966, 0 / 1962, 2 / 1985. 4°F (1989).

The issue here is that we have no policy to make our grid better. There has been poor planning for the future. But we are rushing to kill sources and make news ones that make it even worse (Studies show we can not hand;e our needs and transition to electric cars). We have not done anything to accommodate any growth in any direction.


But we can forsure send billions and billions everywhere....

So if I run my heater for 24 hours straight I use no more power than running it 3 hours?

 

[ckDOG]

Short term? LOL. TVA is owned by the federal gov.

The fact is, it is the policy of the Federal Gov. They own TVA.

And they've been getting crap for staying committed to gas despite being the largest federally owned utility. The CEO is a technical guy with a lengthy utilities career. He's not some policy wonk moron coming in to be unrealistic.

 

[Ibdancin]

So if I run my heater for 24 hours straight I use no more power than running it 3 hours?

Again.... you will use the same amount per hour if it never shuts down. All the while, TVA systems (nuke, coal, natural gas, solar/wind) are producing electricity every minute of every hour.

understand yet?

 

[Ibdancin]

And they've been getting crap for staying committed to gas despite being the largest federally owned utility. The CEO is a technical guy with a lengthy utilities career. He's not some policy wonk moron coming in to be unrealistic.

that means what? No matter where you go with this, it's a policy or lack of policy issue. It's a failure to plan. Plans have to be rooted policy.

 

[She Mate Me]

Some of y'all have interesting views on how to best spend you're free time on Christmas Eve.

Happy Holidays!!

 

[ckDOG]

that means what? No matter where you go with this, it's a policy or lack of policy issue. It's a failure to plan. Plans have to be rooted policy.

Done arguing. You don't even understand or want to be flexible enough to acknowledge that peak usage goes up the colder it gets - there's no point in continuing this further.

Time for nog. Merry Christmas to you and your family!

 

[HotMop]

My advice at this point is to buy stock in companies that build home generators and enjoy the ride.

Thank you for your service, may I suggest a Briggs and Stratton Home Standby Generator?

 

[GloryDawg]

My conspiracy is they purposely diverted electricity from rural areas from some states to larger cities in other states.******

 

[HailStout]

S

It's been pointed out to you. Call it policy, lack of policy. it doesn't matter. Call it planning (phasing out energies) or lack of planning (no viable replacement). it doesn't matter.

Here we sit with billions after billions being sent to the wide world while our systems are failing. This is an issue of GOV... the TVA is owned by the GOV. It's why the President appoints the board to TVA.

You were told in school that the population would grow. You knew it. Are you saying DC did not?

Still waiting on facts as to how policy caused the current blackouts. Everything you are saying is hypothetical.

 

[Thumbs Down]

My president?
Your post has nothing to do with what I typed earlier.

I was pointing out the humor in someone who has historically wanted government to stay out of our business, wanting the government to come in and improve things by spending all the general 'billions' he mentioned on for profit entities(utility companies as a whole).
That's funny to me because its opposite what I would expect. It's inconsistent. That stuff makes me laugh.



And then you come in and ramble on about Biden, as if that is in any way a response to what I posted.
You are so eager to play gotcha, you will try it even when it's clearly forced and doesn't even apply.

 

[Johnnie Come Lately]

Anyone get it kick out of the fact that this slap fight about blackouts has gone on longer than the blackouts in question?

 

[dawgoneyall]

Why would anybody need to prove that in written form? It's right in front of you while people are having blackouts!

If the policy was to stay in front of demand, we would not be having rolling black outs.

If the policy was have 25% more available power for "just in case", we would not be having black outs.

Enjoy observing the left trying to ignore their responsibility for this energy cluster17.

Deny, deny, deflect, deflect.........

Sad actually.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

This is my usage for one of the units in my house. I have gas heat but the point still remains that usage is way up with colder weather. I have my thermostats programed based on a schedule and I didn’t change it during the last three days from its normal schedule (it runs anywhere from 65 to 67 depending on what time day it is.)

The same would go for a heat pump. The usage is going to go way up and especially when it’s cold most people switch to emergency heat so it will keep up better and that really will get your meter spinning.

The other issue is in the South we don’t insulate our homes very well especially in newer homes and that makes it even worse keeping it a constant temp.

 

[Perd Hapley]

This is my usage for one of the units in my house. I have gas heat but the point still remains that usage is way up with colder weather. I have my thermostats programed based on a schedule and I didn’t change it during the last three days from its normal schedule (it runs anywhere from 65 to 67 depending on what time day it is.)

The same would go for a heat pump. The usage is going to go way up and especially when it’s cold most people switch to emergency heat so it will keep up better and that really will get your meter spinning.

The other issue is in the South we don’t insulate our homes very well especially in newer homes and that makes it even worse keeping it a constant temp.


View attachment 287902

Thank you. What people don’t get who say “it’s been this cold before!” Is that it has actually never been this cold over this large of an area in the South before, hence the record power output from TVA on 12/23. The power grid is a lot more complex than people realize, and is affected by a lot more than just how cold it is in anyone’s particular town, county, region, or even entire state.

All that happened, and still the worst thing that happened to anyone is they had to reset their microwave clocks a few times, while their homes still stayed warm and their food still stayed cold.

 

[WrapItDog]

The other issue is in the South we don’t insulate our homes very well especially in newer homes and that makes it even worse keeping it a constant temp.

I would think the opposite is true. Newer houses have better windows, house wrap, attic insulation......

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I would think the opposite is true. Newer houses have better windows, house wrap, attic insulation......

My house has ****** windows I hope to replace one day.

 

[L4Dawg]

Thank you. What people don’t get who say “it’s been this cold before!” Is that it has actually never been this cold over this large of an area in the South before, hence the record power output from TVA on 12/23. The power grid is a lot more complex than people realize, and is affected by a lot more than just how cold it is in anyone’s particular town, county, region, or even entire state.

All that happened, and still the worst thing that happened to anyone is they had to reset their microwave clocks a few times, while their homes still stayed warm and their food still stayed cold.

I suggest you go back and look at 1989.

 

[L4Dawg]

I would think the opposite is true. Newer houses have better windows, house wrap, attic insulation......

This