The go for two chart does not take into account more scoring.

[Bulldog Bruce]

I said to my wife when we scored the TD to go down by 5 in the 3rd quarter and they lined up for 2 it was a mistake. They are not taking into account scoring the next touchdown. Thankfully it ended up not hurting us. But when we scored the next one, we end up being up by 1 instead of 3 because we failed to convert either time. if we just kicked the PATs we are up 3.

Auburn's Chart was totally broken to go for 2 when down by 9.

 

[johnson86-1]

I said to my wife when we scored the TD to go down by 5 in the 3rd quarter and they lined up for 2 it was a mistake. They are not taking into account scoring the next touchdown. Thankfully it ended up not hurting us. But when we scored the next one, we end up being up by 1 instead of 3 because we failed to convert either time. if we just kicked the PATs we are up 3.

Auburn's Chart was totally broken to go for 2 when down by 9.

Going for two when down nine makes sense because if you aren’t going to convert the 2 point conversion, might as well know it when you can try something different. The problem is it takes so much pressure off the other offense when you don’t make it.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

I thought going for 2 down by 9 let's you know if you need to score 2 times or just once.

So if you kick the extra point with 3 minutes left, in your mind you are only down 1 score, kick it deep, and try to get the ball back with 1.5 minutes or so. Then your whole game depends on making the 2 point conversion.

By going for it in the first TD, you immediately know if you need to get the ball twice and go for an onsides kick.


I hope that makes sense? I think an argument can be made that with no time left at home going for 2 to tie, you might have a better shot than you do going for it with 3 minutes left down nine. But if just assume always a 50/50 proposition, going for it first gives you more options.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Thank you! It’s amazing coaches don’t understand this. I say don’t even think about going for two before the 4th quarter. In some cases early in the 4th is still too early. Just accumulate points. Go for two late in the game if necessary.

 

[wsjmsu75]

Thank you! It’s amazing coaches don’t understand this. I say don’t even think about going for two before the 4th quarter. In some cases early in the 4th is still too early. Just accumulate points. Go for two late in the game if necessary.

Exactly. We almost 17'ed up by going for 2 when we had cut it to 28-23. That could have come back to bite us.

 

[Go Budaw]

Personally I don’t like going for 2 until the 4th. Some coaches do it anytime in the 2nd half. Hard to second guess it when it works but its always tough to see a team go for two twice and not get it either time. Puts you in a cycle where you have to keep doing it.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I said to my wife when we scored the TD to go down by 5 in the 3rd quarter and they lined up for 2 it was a mistake. They are not taking into account scoring the next touchdown. Thankfully it ended up not hurting us. But when we scored the next one, we end up being up by 1 instead of 3 because we failed to convert either time. if we just kicked the PATs we are up 3.

Auburn's Chart was totally broken to go for 2 when down by 9.

Yep, analytics don’t take into account pressure from the clock, pressure due to it being 4th down ie your last chance, momentum, etc.

Coaches are idiotic for relying on them with no thought whatsoever.

 

[SLUdog]

This is right.

 

[Bulldogg31]

This may be too Moneyball but what % of success on 2-point conversions might warrant going for it every time.

Off the top of my head it seems like something around 60% success might make it worth the risk. Hard to know unless a team actually tried it for a season.

 

[patdog]

This is the right answer. We could have screwed ourselves by going for 2 twice too early today. Just too much time left to play the points until about 10 minutes left in the game. Play the percentages.

 

[patdog]

2-point conversion percentages have been in the 40s since the late 1950s. Kick the extra point every time unless it's late in the game and you have to go for 2.

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