The market is taking a beating. Are you buying,

[gamecock stock]

Man you are in your 80s??? Congrats… piece of advice. SPEND YOUR MONEY!!!! Take trips. Indulge in a cool car or buy a horse or buy a slip and slide. Spend it. You can’t take it with you, and when you are home you are gone. People will be sad for a second all the whole spending YOUR MONEY at a casino. Spend it brother. Enjoy your life. Get your self. Something awesome!!!!

That is not bad advice. BUT, in my case, there is not anything materially that I am dying to get. But, I believe I can afford to buy just about anything materially in the world. I do anything , LEGALLY, I want. Thus, financially, I'm fine, really fine. Now, I can't afford to pay Jeff Bezos millions for a brief rush of adrenaline to go into outer space. And I would not, even if I could. I could go out to eat 3 times per day, 7 days per week for the rest of my life. But then, with all the salt restaurants pour on food, I suspect I would then not be long for this earth. The bottom-line is you will never find me on a street corner with a tin cup in my hand.

This may come off as odd but, I do get a thrill out of giving money to charities that I know will do real good with the money. I enjoy giving to causes that are bigger than me. Annually, I give, in addition to church, locally, to a children's home (that among other things is a place for abused children), the local Salvation Army, the local shelter for dogs and cats, a local religious organization of area churches helping the elderly poor with food, utilities and transportation bills. Outside my locality, I enjoy giving money to the Shriners Childrens' Hospital in Greenville, to St Jude Childrens Research Hospital in Memphis, UNICEF and the Matthew 25 Ministries organization in Cincinnati that provides relief to people here in the U.S. and all over the world who experience natural disasters. We are in this world for only a short time. That is my way to do my part to do some good for others while I am here and hopefully leave this world a little better than I found it.

Now, unless I screw up in my investments (I've had some of those but, thankfully, hit a lot of grand slam home runs), my estate will be left with plenty when I'm all said and done.

 

[Cocky99]

No. with Biden-flation I’m just worrying about putting gas in the car and food on the table.

 

[TheRoo]

Relief rally underway but probably won't last long. Next FOMC meeting in mid-June with another four scheduled in 2022. Until the FED decides to either lower the 0.5 rate hike to 0.25 (or 0) and/or reverses course, this is going to be a long burn. The return to money printing is likely inevitable. They are boxed in.

 

[KingWard]

Relief rally underway but probably won't last long. Next FOMC meeting in mid-June with another four scheduled in 2022. Until the FED decides to either lower the 0.5 rate hike to 0.25 (or 0) and/or reverses course, this is going to be a long burn. The return to money printing is likely inevitable. They are boxed in.

I don't expect them to reverse course now. If the annual rate of inflation (for May - available 6/10) is marginally less in one month what it was the previous month when the previous month was mind-blowing, they won't be reversing course. 0 wouldn't be reversing course. That would be "all engines stop". Anyhow, that's my take.

 

[gamecock stock]

I don't expect them to reverse course now. If the annual rate of inflation (for May - available 6/10) is marginally less in one month what it was the previous month when the previous month was mind-blowing, they won't be reversing course. 0 wouldn't be reversing course. That would be "all engines stop". Anyhow, that's my take.

I posted last week, on this thread, that the recent inflation rate was less than half the prior month. I've been telling people for the past few months that I expected inflation to peak and slow down on its own regardless what the FED did. Today, I'm even more confident that inflation is slowing down. The Producer Price Index fell quite significantly with "services" at 0%. After adjusting out fuel and transportation, "services" were negative 0.5%.

Target and Walmart took beatings in the market after earnings. The headlines blamed "inflation". But "inflation" is not the whole story. Both were caught by more rapidly shifting consumer demand than expected and inventory levels of certain products that were too high. Both were pushing to load up on in-demand products in the face of a low supply chain. They were caught with seasonal products, arriving after the season was over. They overshot on inventory and are now reducing it. How? Markdowns. That is deflation for the consumer, not inflation. Additionally. since they are selling at lower margins, they won't be reordering those products which will reduce demand (and prices) for the wholesale side. Both companies, in statements indicated that they are choosing to live with tighter profits and eat at least some of the elevated costs rather than passing them along to the consumer. This is going on throughout the retail sector. Inventories are climbing which will reduce strain on the supply chain and consumers are still shopping but demand is normalizing. For much of the past year, demand outstripped supply. That is what has driven inflation. Now, demand and supply are starting to come back into balance.

Inflation won't disappear overnight but, we are seeing signs that it is slowing down. I expect inflation will remain elevated relative to historical levels and the FED's target but will come down from the 8%+ range to the 3-4% range.

 

[KingWard]

I posted last week, on this thread, that the recent inflation rate was less than half the prior month. I've been telling people for the past few months that I expected inflation to peak and slow down on its own regardless what the FED did. Today, I'm even more confident that inflation is slowing down. The Producer Price Index fell quite significantly with "services" at 0%. After adjusting out fuel and transportation, "services" were negative 0.5%.

Target and Walmart took beatings in the market after earnings. The headlines blamed "inflation". But "inflation" is not the whole story. Both were caught by more rapidly shifting consumer demand than expected and inventory levels of certain products that were too high. Both were pushing to load up on in-demand products in the face of a low supply chain. They were caught with seasonal products, arriving after the season was over. They overshot on inventory and are now reducing it. How? Markdowns. That is deflation for the consumer, not inflation. Additionally. since they are selling at lower margins, they won't be reordering those products which will reduce demand (and prices) for the wholesale side. Both companies, in statements indicated that they are choosing to live with tighter profits and eat at least some of the elevated costs rather than passing them along to the consumer. This is going on throughout the retail sector. Inventories are climbing which will reduce strain on the supply chain and consumers are still shopping but demand is normalizing. For much of the past year, demand outstripped supply. That is what has driven inflation. Now, demand and supply are starting to come back into balance.

Inflation won't disappear overnight but, we are seeing signs that it is slowing down. I expect inflation will remain elevated relative to historical levels and the FED's target but will come down from the 8%+ range to the 3-4% range.

Could retail inventories be coming under the effects of consumers' previous disposable incomes being diverted to the purchase of fuel? Secondarily, if energy costs were to remain only at current levels - would that pricing not continue to hamper the typical person's ability to make discretionary purchases? I can see how that would lower prices for what people aren't able or willing to buy. I can also see where that might be detrimental to the economy. Is that scenario plausible?

 

[gamecock stock]

Could retail inventories be coming under the effects of consumers' previous disposable incomes being diverted to the purchase of fuel? Secondarily, if energy costs were to remain only at current levels - would that pricing not continue to hamper the typical person's ability to make discretionary purchases? I can see how that would lower prices for what people aren't able or willing to buy. I can also see where that might be detrimental to the economy. Is that scenario plausible?

Yes. Fuel prices definitely come into play. I read a study that higher fuel prices are not resulting in people cutting back on driving. Well, then consumers have to cut back somewhere to make up for the higher fuel prices. Discretionary purchases would certainly be hit, unless people are willing to go into debt. But, if they don't like debt, as I don't, they won't spend.

 

[KingWard]

Yes. Fuel prices definitely come into play. I read a study that higher fuel prices are not resulting in people cutting back on driving. Well, then consumers have to cut back somewhere to make up for the higher fuel prices. Discretionary purchases would certainly be hit, unless people are willing to go into debt. But, if they don't like debt, as I don't, they won't spend.

When it comes to debt aversion, I sense that you and I are in the minority.

 

[Game...Cocks]

Yes. Fuel prices definitely come into play. I read a study that higher fuel prices are not resulting in people cutting back on driving. Well, then consumers have to cut back somewhere to make up for the higher fuel prices. Discretionary purchases would certainly be hit, unless people are willing to go into debt. But, if they don't like debt, as I don't, they won't spend.

America now has < 40% of the railroad mileage we had in 1916. And much less mileage than in the late 1800s.

I love a road trip, and flying, but we sorely needed to continue to develop passenger rail to reduce our dependence on gasoline.

 

[Lurker123]

When it comes to debt aversion, I sense that you and I are in the minority.

Dave Ramsey just groaned.

 

[b-flag]

is this a good time for bitcoin?

 

[TheRoo]

I don't expect them to reverse course now. If the annual rate of inflation (for May - available 6/10) is marginally less in one month what it was the previous month when the previous month was mind-blowing, they won't be reversing course. 0 wouldn't be reversing course. That would be "all engines stop". Anyhow, that's my take.

I'm guessing they reverse or pause for the Fall and the midterms leadup.

 

[TheRoo]

The Fed is in zugzwang. Quantitative tightening to commence June 15th. Let's see how long it takes them to realize this will send us into full dystopia mode and they have to reverse course.

If you're ever going to try QT, it should be in a red hot economy. Not on the heel of sufficating the economy and budget with useless mandates and lockdowns. Trump had the right idea but it was going to take longer than 4 years to implement.

Today Yellen, JP, Goldman and most of the other buzzards who capitalize off fear (via shorting) simultaneously released predictable gloom and doom press releases to put their plan in motion.

 

[TheRoo]

is this a good time for bitcoin?

Not a bad time to start DCA. The environment the FED finds itself in (self-inflicted) is the entire basis for why BTC was created. My guess is that the bottom probably hasn't been reached for this 4-year cycle. Probably closer to the former ATH of $20K. However, the upside potential is huge versus the downside risk. Close to 70% of all wallets haven't moved anything in over 5 years. JP Morgan just last week called BTC the new gold. At gold's current MC, that's a $600K BTC. Then you have to consider the increasing list of countries adopting. Upside huge and a nice hedge against the corrupted/printed fiat currencies.