Today's RPI update

[HuntDawg]

we are currently 21

A win today would move us to 19, loss back to 24. This is obviously with zero help

Dallas Baptist whose 21, plays a game that can move them up
Duke whose at 20 is off today
It would be good to see South Carolina lose to Arkansas today
Wake is a bubble team with a game that can continue to move them up the RPI ladder, we need them to lose
We are pulling hard for an LSU win, after all the games played out yesterday the LSU series fell back to a quad 2 series for us, them winning can slide that back up to quad 1 for us
NC state also plays a game that can swing them from 13 with a win, to 18 with a loss
Oklahoma State is also playing.. we need them to lose every time out.. as I think they are clearly ahead of us on the hosting ladder

Minus that we've got to keep our eye on a team like LaTech. 40 wins already. Regular season champ. If they run away and win their tournament, could be a dark horse and their RPI is at 26 right now.

 

[MStateDawg]

We are pulling hard for an LSU win, after all the games played out yesterday the LSU series fell back to a quad 2 series for us, them winning can slide that back up to quad 1 for us

LSU moved up from 30th to 27th yesterday. We need them in the Top 25 for their games vs us to be considered Q1.

 

[Thebulldogcountry1]

We have gotten zero help from our RPI competition since last weekend.

Just win.

 

[HuntDawg]

LSU moved up from 30th to 27th yesterday. We need them in the Top 25 for their games vs us to be considered Q1.
View attachment 578868

They did move up. But right after their game was over they were sitting at 25. The night games moved them back to 27. We need them to stay in the top 25 RPI wise badly.

 

[Thebulldogcountry1]

LSU moved up from 30th to 27th yesterday. We need them in the Top 25 for their games vs us to be considered Q1.
View attachment 578868

It would also help if Mizzou could move up to 99. They are at 102 now. Since OWP counts 50% of the RPI, it seems feasible.

 

[chuckster.sixpack]

we are currently 21

A win today would move us to 19, loss back to 24. This is obviously with zero help

Dallas Baptist whose 21, plays a game that can move them up
Duke whose at 20 is off today
It would be good to see South Carolina lose to Arkansas today
Wake is a bubble team with a game that can continue to move them up the RPI ladder, we need them to lose
We are pulling hard for an LSU win, after all the games played out yesterday the LSU series fell back to a quad 2 series for us, them winning can slide that back up to quad 1 for us
NC state also plays a game that can swing them from 13 with a win, to 18 with a loss
Oklahoma State is also playing.. we need them to lose every time out.. as I think they are clearly ahead of us on the hosting ladder

Minus that we've got to keep our eye on a team like LaTech. 40 wins already. Regular season champ. If they run away and win their tournament, could be a dark horse and their RPI is at 26 right now.

How many of those teams have 18 SEC wins?

 

[HuntDawg]

How many of those teams have 18 SEC wins?

ive said many times... 18 wins is our trump card. Depends how high the committee weighs it.

8 of those 18 however are against the bottom 3 teams in the league.

Again all depends on the committee looks at it.

 

[8dog]

They did move up. But right after their game was over they were sitting at 25. The night games moved them back to 27. We need them to stay in the top 25 RPI wise badly.

Man that would put us at 15 q1 wins which would be 3rd in the country. And with a winning q1 record.

 

[chuckster.sixpack]

ive said many times... 18 wins is our trump card. Depends how high the committee weighs it.

8 of those 18 however are against the bottom 3 teams in the league.

Again all depends on the committee looks at it.

I think most reasonable people know how the committee looks at it. But that won’t prevent some attention whores from posting incessantly about RPI.

 

[Ranchdawg]

NCAA ranking also counts and right now we are in a good place.

 

[Drebin]

ive said many times... 18 wins is our trump card. Depends how high the committee weighs it.

8 of those 18 however are against the bottom 3 teams in the league.

Again all depends on the committee looks at it.

It's really not. Number of conference wins is baked into the RPI.

Today is must win if we want to host. And we probably still need a little help.

 

[patdog]

Just win today. That would pretty much clinch an RPI in top 20 and would give us a 5th win vs a national seed.

 

[8dog]

I think conference wins is the back stop to keep the Bamas and SCs from hosting more so than anything. Its gonna be RPI and Q1 wins.
Although this is the first year they are given the KPI. But told it’s not a data point which makes no damn sense.

 

[Drebin]

NCAA ranking also counts and right now we are in a good place.

If you're talking about the poll, that thing has been garbage all year. Hell, Florida was barely above .500 still highly ranked early in the year. Nobody looks at that - it's certainly not weighing RPI.

 

[HuntDawg]

It's really not. Number of conference wins is baked into the RPI.

Today is must win if we want to host. And we probably still need a little help.

Yeah i mean... there have been 18 win sec teams in the past not host due to RPI.

 

[HuntDawg]

Just win today. That would pretty much clinch an RPI in top 20 and would give us a 5th win vs a national seed.

i dont think it clinches a top 20. I thought a win vs AM would move the needle more than it going to. A win only moves us to 19. If we lose the next 2 after that... we'll again be outside the top 20

 

[HuntDawg]

I think conference wins is the back stop to keep the Bamas and SCs from hosting more so than anything. Its gonna be RPI and Q1 wins.
Although this is the first year they are given the KPI. But told it’s not a data point which makes no damn sense.

I agree.. and our KPI is high.. but Oregon States is in the 30s. Not sure how much it'll be weighed.

I also heard there is a common sense approach to it. Teams that dont have the opporutnity to play 25-30 quad 1 games wont get penalized. I mean oregon state has 6 total quad 1 games and they will host.

and for example we have 5 quad 1 games against a 27-29 ole miss team.

 

[Ranchdawg]

If you're talking about the poll, that thing has been garbage all year. Hell, Florida was barely above .500 still highly ranked early in the year. Nobody looks at that - it's certainly not weighing RPI.

According to this article you are right. But it also states they will be looking at KPI as well this year.

Committee

 

[Drebin]

Yeah i mean... there have been 18 win sec teams in the past not host due to RPI.

That's my point - number of conference wins is a nice metric but RPI accounts for the quality of those wins already. There may be a touch of human element with the committee when they consider all of this, but our number of conference wins and where we finished in the standings aren't going to weigh nearly as much as RPI and our RPI is our problem.

 

[HuntDawg]

That's my point - number of conference wins is a nice metric but RPI accounts for the quality of those wins already. There may be a touch of human element with the committee when they consider all of this, but our number of conference wins and where we finished in the standings aren't going to weigh nearly as much as RPI and our RPI is our problem.

I agree with this.

But we are hoping that our SEC wins and quad 1 wins trump that....

But as you said. I think we are on the outside looking in and the top 16 were a solid top 16 prior to the tournament starting.. and we need wins and help.. and so far we've gotten ZERO help.

 

[HuntDawg]

According to this article you are right. But it also states they will be looking at KPI as well this year.

Committee

looking at it is vague... its a tool they can use to evaluate. Think RPI is still the king.

 

[Ranchdawg]

Here is the latest projection.

Tournament

 

[HuntDawg]

According to this article you are right. But it also states they will be looking at KPI as well this year.

Committee

Also the KPI only has 1 non power 5 school in the top 25... its more heavily weighted to the power schools than RPI is.

 

[8dog]

looking at it is vague... its a tool they can use to evaluate. Think RPI is still the king.

Just wild. “Hey guys here is an *** ton of data but do not use it as a criteria.”

Then what the hell do they use it for.

 

[HuntDawg]

Just wild. “Hey guys here is an *** ton of data but do not use it as a criteria.”

Then what the hell do they use it for.

Ive read and its been said that its a tool that can be used to evaluate.. but it'll be the first time its used.. and that RPI and record vs the top 25 RPI is still king.

I mean i cant explain it. Just relaying what I've read... think it was even said in a few of the games i watched yesterday.

The commitee got killed last year for using RPI and only RPI... think they are trying to broaden the way things are selected. Basketball has 5 things that can be used, baseball 1, until now.

 

[She Mate Me]

We're clearly on the bubble for hosting. And we should be. Needing offensive heroics in the 9th to finally actually score against one of the weakest SEC teams did nothing to dissuade anyone of our bubble status.

We could win this tournament and I'd still be crossing my fingers hoping the committee doesn't 17 us. It is what it is. Lose today and we ain't hosting. Win today and whatever happens after we will have a chance. That's how I see it.

 

[HuntDawg]

We're clearly on the bubble for hosting. And we should be. Needing offensive heroics in the 9th to finally actually score against one of the weakest SEC teams did nothing to dissuade anyone of our bubble status.

We could win this tournament and I'd still be crossing my fingers hoping the committee doesn't 17 us. It is what it is. Lose today and we ain't hosting. Win today and whatever happens after we will have a chance. That's how I see it.

agree.

although i dont think the committee will 17 us. The SEC and even us, i think have been given the benefit of the doubt a lot baseball wise.

But we'll have to earn it.

 

[She Mate Me]

It's been so long since we've been in Hoover and I don't feel like looking it up.

Are we now in a compressed CWS style 8 team tourney without the 3 game final series??

 

[Perd Hapley]

That's my point - number of conference wins is a nice metric but RPI accounts for the quality of those wins already. There may be a touch of human element with the committee when they consider all of this, but our number of conference wins and where we finished in the standings aren't going to weigh nearly as much as RPI and our RPI is our problem.

I don’t know that I’d say RPI is a “problem”. Its good enough to justify us as a host site, if that’s what the committee wants to do. But its not good enough to make us a lock.

We are currently #21. Two of the teams in front of us (USC and Bama) are objectively not going to be hosting, due to 13-17 SEC record. So at worst, we’re actually 19th in RPI amongst teams that will be considered. Wake is likely also out at 15-15 in the ACC, and I very strongly believe our current overall resume is stronger than Duke, who is only 1 spot ahead. They have a worse ACC record and worse Quad 1 win % but with same # of Quad 1 wins. One of those cases where RPI doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, we’re 17th in the RPI when you exclude the teams that have other red flags. That’s good enough to get us in, potentially. But not guaranteed obviously.

 

[8dog]

We're clearly on the bubble for hosting. And we should be. Needing offensive heroics in the 9th to finally actually score against one of the weakest SEC teams did nothing to dissuade anyone of our bubble status.

We could win this tournament and I'd still be crossing my fingers hoping the committee doesn't 17 us. It is what it is. Lose today and we ain't hosting. Win today and whatever happens after we will have a chance. That's how I see it.

I don’t think the committee is really going to care how we won. They know it’s baseball. The most important thing is it’s another q1 win which is laughable but a fact.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Just wild. “Hey guys here is an *** ton of data but do not use it as a criteria.”

Then what the hell do they use it for.

 

[HuntDawg]

I don’t know that I’d say RPI is a “problem”. Its good enough to justify us as a host site, if that’s what the committee wants to do. But its not good enough to make us a lock.

We are currently #21. Two of the teams in front of us (USC and Bama) are objectively not going to be hosting, due to 13-17 SEC record. So at worst, we’re actually 19th in RPI amongst teams that will be considered. Wake is likely also out at 15-15 in the ACC, and I very strongly believe our current overall resume is stronger than Duke, who is only 1 spot ahead. They have a worse ACC record and worse Quad 1 win % but with same # of Quad 1 wins. One of those cases where RPI doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, we’re 17th in the RPI when you exclude the teams that have other red flags. That’s good enough to get us in, potentially. But not guaranteed obviously.

Wake and their RPI isnt out. And if weighing taking a 15-15 ACC team with an RPI of 11 and an SEC team with an RPI of 21. The commitee has shown in the past that RPI will trump conference record, when the gulf in RPI is wide.

Alabama and SC are the only two teams above us that are out of hosting contention--- meaning we are at 18/19 on the totem poll.

Wake has a big 2 games coming: Today against Pitt and later against UNC. Winning both will put Wake's RPI in the top 10.. and they'll host.

Duke and us are a coin flip.

Problem is we still need one of the top 16 to lose.. and we need to be chosen over the pool above... and we need to win. All possible, but tough road.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Wake and their RPI isnt out. And if weighing taking a 15-15 ACC team with an RPI of 11 and an SEC team with an RPI of 21. The commitee has shown in the past that RPI will trump conference record, when the gulf in RPI is wide.

But the gulf in RPI isn’t wide. It’s like 8 spots when you exclude Bama / USC. How many 15-15 teams from the ACC or SEC have hosted regionals since 1999? I only know of one, ever. Maybe there has been another at some point. How many teams outside the Top 16 in RPI have hosted regionals? A lot more than one. The conference record precedent is much stronger than the RPI precedent.

 

[Drebin]

I don’t know that I’d say RPI is a “problem”. Its good enough to justify us as a host site, if that’s what the committee wants to do. But its not good enough to make us a lock.

We are currently #21. Two of the teams in front of us (USC and Bama) are objectively not going to be hosting, due to 13-17 SEC record. So at worst, we’re actually 19th in RPI amongst teams that will be considered. Wake is likely also out at 15-15 in the ACC, and I very strongly believe our current overall resume is stronger than Duke, who is only 1 spot ahead. They have a worse ACC record and worse Quad 1 win % but with same # of Quad 1 wins. One of those cases where RPI doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, we’re 17th in the RPI when you exclude the teams that have other red flags. That’s good enough to get us in, potentially. But not guaranteed obviously.

In reality we're 21st in RPI. And also in reality, Bama and SC doesn't have the ugly losses on their resumes that we do. All that stuff matters. RPI is a problem for us because we have some very, very ugly non conference losses. Otherwise, hosting would be a slam dunk.

 

[HuntDawg]

But the gulf in RPI isn’t wide. It’s like 8 spots when you exclude Bama / USC. How many 15-15 teams from the ACC or SEC have hosted regionals since 1999? I only know of one, ever. Maybe there has been another at some point. How many teams outside the Top 16 in RPI have hosted regionals? A lot more than one. The conference record precedent is much stronger than the RPI precedent.

again.. the reference the past and precedent doesnt really that much anymore.Lots of precedents have changed over the years. And we cant cherry pick our precedents. How many ACC schools with an RPI of 9 havent hosted? How many big12 schools that have won 20 games in conference havent hosted? The SEC getting that many hosts last year broke it, if we get 5 national spots this year it'll break it, 11 teams in will break it...

The list goes on. What i do know is yearly now it seems like another precedent gets broken. And the likelyhood of 1-2 more getting broken this year is very strong. Whether that be a 15-15 acc team hosting or one of many others.... and i'd bet an ACC team with a top 10 RPI, is one that would break it.

Also you just cant throw out the other teams just becuase they arent hosting. Sure on the hosting pecking order it matters... but one team having an RPI of 11 and another of 21.. is a wide gulf... and they are separated by 168 RPI points... its the same gulf b/t us and the 48th team RPI wise.... Let that sink in. Its a BIG BIG gulf.

 

[RopeDawg]

Here is the latest projection.

Tournament

That would be the most ideal non hosting spot

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think most reasonable people know how the committee looks at it. But that won’t prevent some attention whores from posting incessantly about RPI.

I mean there have literally been 18 SEC win teams not host. More than once.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

It's been so long since we've been in Hoover and I don't feel like looking it up.

Are we now in a compressed CWS style 8 team tourney without the 3 game final series??

Kinda. Double elimination Wednesday through Friday. Then the semifinals and finals are single elimination. We are guaranteed at least two more games, though.

 

[She Mate Me]

Kinda. Double elimination Wednesday through Friday. Then the semifinals and finals are single elimination. We are guaranteed at least two more games, though.

Ok, thanks

 

[Perd Hapley]

In reality we're 21st in RPI. And also in reality, Bama and SC doesn't have the ugly losses on their resumes that we do. All that stuff matters. RPI is a problem for us because we have some very, very ugly non conference losses. Otherwise, hosting would be a slam dunk.

Bama and USC are not in the hosting discussion, which is what this is about. Their RPI doesn’t matter. They might as well be 250th and 251st teams in RPI as it relates to that.

Wake is very arguably in that same boat, as of right now. They need a lot of tourney wins.

You are correct about the non-conference losses. Had we not had a few of those, we would be a lock. But then again, that would also make the RPI better. You could say the same about several conference losses. It’s all related, but none of it is a total disqualifier for us, as of right now.