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USC & UCLA to B1G by 2024; conferences react; TV contracts thread

Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

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MontereyLion said:
From another source...Arizona and Colorado to be offered future membership to Big12, next week. We will see how accurate that is soon enough.
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It's an interesting game of chicken that teams and conferences are in. The teams want to maximize the $$ they are getting, which may or may not force them to leave their conference (if they haven't signed away their TV rights). The B1G knows it's getting a huge contract. It's not against merging, but it wants it to be valuable to the existing teams (i.e., not reduce the $$ they get if they expand). The B1G has wanted Notre Dame for quite some time, and now appears to be waiting to see what they do (as ND is also in a strange situation, TV $$ wise). But if the B1G waits too long on ND and the Domers end up not opting for the B1G, then the B1G may have missed on some excellent additions that while they wouldn't add $100M by themselves, and thus would reduce the per team $$ to each B1G team, they would still make for a nice addition (and also make it so that USC and UCLA are not the only Pacific Time teams in the conference).

I'm having a hard time figuring out what the SEC is doing. The natural candidates to them for expansion are mostly in the ACC, and as such have their TV rights locked up for more than a decade. So do they try to break those agreements, or do they recruit other teams, or do they just sit pat.

The Big12 and the Pac are the conferences that seem to be most in play. Both seem to want to keep all their existing members, and also expand. It seems logical that a merger of the two leagues would be the best all-around strategy in terms of keeping all of those teams viable. Unfortunately, I don't think it's a great move from a $$ perspective, in terms of a TV contract. So both leagues are likely working hard to recruit teams from the other, so who knows how that will play out.

And the lesser conferences (and the schools in them) have to be scared by the recent developments. It's going to be tougher and tougher for them to compete with the B1G and the SEC teams because their TV payouts will be so much lower.
 
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MontereyLion

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Tom McAndrew said:
It's an interesting game of chicken that teams and conferences are in. The teams want to maximize the $$ they are getting, which may or may not force them to leave their conference (if they haven't signed away their TV rights). The B1G knows it's getting a huge contract. It's not against merging, but it wants it to be valuable to the existing teams (i.e., not reduce the $$ they get if they expand). The B1G has wanted Notre Dame for quite some time, and now appears to be waiting to see what they do (as ND is also in a strange situation, TV $$ wise). But if the B1G waits too long on ND and the Domers end up not opting for the B1G, then the B1G may have missed on some excellent additions that while they wouldn't add $100M by themselves, and thus would reduce the per team $$ to each B1G team, they would still make for a nice addition (and also make it so that USC and UCLA are not the only Pacific Time teams in the conference).

I'm having a hard time figuring out what the SEC is doing. The natural candidates to them for expansion are mostly in the ACC, and as such have their TV rights locked up for more than a decade. So do they try to break those agreements, or do they recruit other teams, or do they just sit pat.

The Big12 and the Pac are the conferences that seem to be most in play. Both seem to want to keep all their existing members, and also expand. It seems logical that a merger of the two leagues would be the best all-around strategy in terms of keeping all of those teams viable. Unfortunately, I don't think it's a great move from a $$ perspective, in terms of a TV contract. So both leagues are likely working hard to recruit teams from the other, so who knows how that will play out.

And the lesser conferences (and the schools in them) have to be scared by the recent developments. It's going to be tougher and tougher for them to compete with the B1G and the SEC teams because their TV payouts will be so much lower.
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Supposedly only 8 ACC teams need to vote to end the GORs. That opens the ACC to be carved up by B1G, SEC and Big12. Also, though adding Stanford, Oregon and Washington would dilute each B1G TV share, added them now is looking to the future 10-15 years down the road. Also counters moves from the SEC to take a chunk of the West Coast.
 
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WVilleLion

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MontereyLion said:
Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Inside source indicating that's what the Bigten is shooting to add by mid October. If that happens Bigten would move to 4 five team pods with 2 semi final games and then a conference final game. Speculation that too much TV money will be generated for Notre Dame to turn down.
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If this were to happen, I would like to see annual schedule be the 4 other teams in same pod, 2 games vs teams in each of the other three pods, and 2 OOC games.
 
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Mrdibbs

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The admistration at WVU has to be catatonic over the thought of a B12 remnant/PAC12 remnant merger. Imagine adding road trips (they already are a B12 conference geographic disaster) to the west coast.
 
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MontereyLion

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WVilleLion said:
If this were to happen, I would like to see annual schedule be the 4 other teams in same pod, 2 games vs teams in each of the other three pods, and 2 OOC games.
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I would guess (just my WAG) B1G would go to 10 conference games and 2 nonconference games. Like you said, 4 games against teams in your Pod and 2 games each year against teams in the other 3 pods. Over a 5 year schedule, every team in the B1G would play every other team, one home and away game. If Notre Dame were to join, they might screw that up. Notre Dame would probably want to play USC and Stanford, every year.
 
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MontereyLion

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This guy's thoughts on the B1G adding Notre Dame, Stanford, Cal, Washington and Oregon...going to 21. Cal adds nothing. However, to make Stanford happy and therefore Notre Dame happy, maybe they have to consider adding Cal. Who knows?
 
PSUFBFAN

PSUFBFAN

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MontereyLion said:
Supposedly only 8 ACC teams need to vote to end the GORs. That opens the ACC to be carved up by B1G, SEC and Big12. Also, though adding Stanford, Oregon and Washington would dilute each B1G TV share, added them now is looking to the future 10-15 years down the road. Also counters moves from the SEC to take a chunk of the West Coast.
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Unless you have a link to a legal opinion regarding that statement (only 8 teams needed to dissolve the GOR), I don't believe that is true.
 
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MontereyLion

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Just my speculation...B1G stays at 16 teams for now. Adding any more Pac12 teams would dilute future TV monies, per B1G team. I am guessing that source that said B1G would add more Pac12 teams and Notre Dame by mid October is wrong. We will see. Also, I'd bet that B1G goes to a 10 game conference schedule and hope they do away with divisions. They should have the 4 highest ranked teams play each other in two semi games. And then the title game rotating at Indy and then the Rose Bowl. What say you?
 
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PSUFBFAN

PSUFBFAN

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MontereyLion said:
Just my speculation...B1G stays at 16 teams for now. Adding any more Pac12 teams would dilute future TV monies, per B1G team. I am guessing that source that said B1G would add more Pac12 teams and Notre Dame by mid October is wrong. We will see. Also, I'd bet that B1G goes to a 10 game conference schedule and hope they do away with divisions. They should have the 4 highest ranked teams play each other in two semi games. And then the title game rotating at Indy and then the Rose Bowl. What say you?
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From a dollars viewpoint, I agree that adding 2, 3, or 4 more Pac12 teams won't result in additional tv revenue of $100 million per team.

OTOH, I can't see how the logistics of those 2 schools traveling across the country for half of their athletic events is practical - especially when you consider their non revenue sports. I doubt the remaining Pac12 schools will agree to a set up where USC and UCLA will continue to compete in the conference for their non revenue sports.
 
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Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

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MontereyLion said:
Just my speculation...B1G stays at 16 teams for now. Adding any more Pac12 teams would dilute future TV monies, per B1G team. I am guessing that source that said B1G would add more Pac12 teams and Notre Dame by mid October is wrong. We will see. Also, I'd bet that B1G goes to a 10 game conference schedule and hope they do away with divisions. They should have the 4 highest ranked teams play each other in two semi games. And then the title game rotating at Indy and then the Rose Bowl. What say you?
Click to expand...

I have no inside info, and the parties seem to be keeping things under wraps. In fact, I've heard a few insiders confide that anybody that claims they know what is being planned is FOS, or only knows a very small percentage of the big picture.

With that caveat:
- I don't think the B1G will expand right now unless Notre Dame suddenly decides to join the B1G (and I don't seem them being in any rush to do that)
- there have been guesses floated that the B1G will be 2 larger divisions, and guessed floated that it will end up in 4 divisions
- most/all of the guesses seem to point toward B1G semis before a B1G final
- the location of the playoffs is probably in play, especially if they are expanded from 1 game to 3 games. I could see the final staying in Indy, and the semis being located at one or more other locations
- I could also see the final moving to the Rose Bowl. The rotating proposal of yours seems like a valid option
- Regardless of how it shakes out, I don't see the B1G going to a 10-game conference schedule. That would reduce the number of home games a school would have, which would have a huge impact on the finances of all schools, and a tremendous impact on the big programs with huge stadiums
- the TV contract, which looks to be stunning in size, could compensate to some extent for the reduction in home games if a 10-game conference schedule is adopted, but there are going to be A LOT of hands reaching for that money from B1G schools' athletic department, as well as the general university funds. (I know that PSU has prided itself on fully funding athletics from the $$ they make on football, but that's not to say that the dynamics couldn't change if there is a large amount of additional dollars being generated by the combination of the new TV contract and football game revenue. Ditto for other B1G schools.)
 
Tom McAndrew

Tom McAndrew

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PSUFBFAN said:
From a dollars viewpoint, I agree that adding 2, 3, or 4 more Pac12 teams won't result in additional tv revenue of $100 million per team.

OTOH, I can't see how the logistics of those 2 schools traveling across the country for half of their athletic events is practical - especially when you consider their non revenue sports. I doubt the remaining Pac12 schools will agree to a set up where USC and UCLA will continue to compete in the conference for their non revenue sports.
Click to expand...

ND is the only school in play (if it is) that seems that it wouldn't dilute what each B1G team receives from the TV contract. Texas isn't not in play, but it would also be above the dilution threshold. I don't know what the figures are for Oklahoma. There are likely several teams in the SEC that are above the threshold, but they are tied up in GORs.

Yes, the travel costs for USC and UCLA will increase to compete against other B1G teams, as will the travel expenses for existing B1G teams to compete against those two LA-area teams. But UCLA athletics was hemorrhaging money, so even with the increased travel costs the move is a huge win for them. USC athletics was in better shape financially, but the move looks to be a huge win for them as well, so I doubt they'll worry too much about the travel costs.

I think you're correct that the Pac 12 would not agree to keeping USC and UCLA in the conference for non-revenue sports. But that's a non-issue, as they are fully joining the B1G.
 
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MontereyLion

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Tom McAndrew said:
I have no inside info, and the parties seem to be keeping things under wraps. In fact, I've heard a few insiders confide that anybody that claims they know what is being planned is FOS, or only knows a very small percentage of the big picture.

With that caveat:
- I don't think the B1G will expand right now unless Notre Dame suddenly decides to join the B1G (and I don't seem them being in any rush to do that)
- there have been guesses floated that the B1G will be 2 larger divisions, and guessed floated that it will end up in 4 divisions
- most/all of the guesses seem to point toward B1G semis before a B1G final
- the location of the playoffs is probably in play, especially if they are expanded from 1 game to 3 games. I could see the final staying in Indy, and the semis being located at one or more other locations
- I could also see the final moving to the Rose Bowl. The rotating proposal of yours seems like a valid option
- Regardless of how it shakes out, I don't see the B1G going to a 10-game conference schedule. That would reduce the number of home games a school would have, which would have a huge impact on the finances of all schools, and a tremendous impact on the big programs with huge stadiums
- the TV contract, which looks to be stunning in size, could compensate to some extent for the reduction in home games if a 10-game conference schedule is adopted, but there are going to be A LOT of hands reaching for that money from B1G schools' athletic department, as well as the general university funds. (I know that PSU has prided itself on fully funding athletics from the $$ they make on football, but that's not to say that the dynamics couldn't change if there is a large amount of additional dollars being generated by the combination of the new TV contract and football game revenue. Ditto for other B1G schools.)
Click to expand...
I am thinking B1G goes to 10 conference games to keep more TV dollars in the conference. Each team would have 5 home conference games and 2 home nonconference games, each year. That's 7 home games, like now. I was wondering, with Notre Dame having to play 5 games each year with ACC teams through 2036, might Notre Dame think about agreeing to play say 4 B1G teams per year, until the end of that agreement? That would leave them 3 games to play the likes of Navy and Stanford etc. It would allowed B1G to get their foot in the door to get Notre Dame in the conference down the road. Just thoughts.
 
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Mile High Lion

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PSUFBFAN said:
From a dollars viewpoint, I agree that adding 2, 3, or 4 more Pac12 teams won't result in additional tv revenue of $100 million per team.

OTOH, I can't see how the logistics of those 2 schools traveling across the country for half of their athletic events is practical - especially when you consider their non revenue sports. I doubt the remaining Pac12 schools will agree to a set up where USC and UCLA will continue to compete in the conference for their non revenue sports.
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Out of curiosity I looked at the UCLA website and the non-revenue sport schedules look to be a mix of conference and non-conference games or almost all out of conference. If the PAC 12 decided to boycott UCLA there are plenty of schools in California and the west to fill any holes in the schedules. Since I don't teams like golf or tennis flying back to the Midwest there shouldn't be much change in those non-revenue sport schedules.
 
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WestSideLion

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Tom McAndrew said:
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Interesting analysis on what it would take for ND to remain independent. Why would NBC greatly increase its payout? Aren’t they vying for a piece of the B1G rights? Having ND in the B1G and some team variability for a change would be a good thing for NBC.

I think this really comes down to ND and the ACC. ND still loves the idea of being an independent in the waning years of that era, but the ACC would be a huge loser if ND pulled out and joined the B1G.

My money is on the ACC somehow ponying up more $ to keep ND independent.
 
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MontereyLion

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Tom McAndrew said:
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Had never thought about the Play Off monies being divided up equally between the conference teams. I understand the regular season and even the Bigten title game TV monies being equally divided but maybe they should rethink the Play Off being equally divided. Seems to me any teams that makes the Play Off should be allowed to keep a much larger share of those monies. Especially if the Play Off expands to 8, 12 or 16 teams. There should be some extra reward for making the Play Off. Plus that would take that deterrent away from Notre Dame joining the conference.
 
psuro

psuro

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Got a text from a friend who had copied a Tweet from Brett McMurphy that Big Ten is finalizing it's media rights with CBS, NBC and Faux, thereby eliminating their
40 year relationship with ESPN. This is the first time ever that Big Ten will not be on the Four Letter.

Can't access twitter, so if someone has the tweet, please provide.
 
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rudedude

rudedude

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psuro said:
Got a text from a friend who had copied a Tweet from Brett McMurphy that Big Ten is finalizing it's media rights with CBS, NBC and Faux, thereby eliminating their
40 year relationship with ESPN. This is the first time ever that Big Ten will not be on the Four Letter.

Can't access twitter, so if someone has the tweet, please provide.
Click to expand...
 
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