I am sure this has all been said before, but I will say it again....
This game and situation weirdly plays into CJF's strength.....which is also his most glaring weakness - ability to beat teams better than Penn State.
Beating #1 Oregon would be a big plus for CJF, but puts PSU in the position of having to face the winner of #8/#9 (currently Ohio
State/Tennessee). If he follows his normal trajectory and loses to a higher ranked team (but does not get blown out), then PSU drops to #5, and potentially has a very easy path to the semi - finals (home game vs #12, followed by neutral site game vs the #4, which could be the G5 opponent).