BWI Sport Betting Thread

[Grant Green]

A little late, but I thought I would fire this up again. I'm sure this thread will focus on college football, but NFL and all other sports welcome too. I know my man @Erial_Lion has some great reads on FA Cup and hoops games.

Feel free to post bets that you like, but even more valuable would be general info, such as the UNLV QB suddenly decided to red shirt (I think I'm still betting UNLV vs Fresno), injuries/illnesses, etc.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I just happen to be listening to an interesting podcast as I read this. Elihu was a moderator at SBR back in the day and we’ve been posting on the same forums for years. He’s written a few books (one new, and one I did actually read some parts of when it came out).

 

[Grant Green]

I just happen to be listening to an interesting podcast as I read this. Elihu was a moderator at SBR back in the day and we’ve been posting on the same forums for years. He’s written a few books (one new, and one I did actually read some parts of when it came out).

This podcast may sound a little complicated to many at first, but it paints a really good picture of the betting market. Definitely beneficial to anyone that wants to go beyond novice bettor.

 

[Erial_Lion]

This podcast may sound a little complicated to many at first, but it paints a really good picture of the betting market. Definitely beneficial to anyone that wants to go beyond novice bettor.

Yea, Elihu always has really good stuff, but definitely more towards the intermediate/advanced side of things for people that want to do this seriously and win.

I'll post the Eddie Walls podcast again this week when it comes out, especially since it'll likely include analysis of our game on Saturday night. Eddie is the sharpest guy that I've met that's willing to speak openly about some of the things he talks about when breaking down the games.

 

[MtNittany]

I have Army -12 tonight at Temple. Short week, triple option.

 

[Grant Green]

I have Army -12 tonight at Temple. Short week, triple option.

I heard someone make the case for the over. Temple suddenly found and offense and yes, tough to prep for the option on a short week.

 

[CDLionFL]

The two I like the most right now is Rutgers ML tomorrow night against Washington and the Steelers -1 1/2 on the road at the Colts. Gotta think the Knights, Scarlet edition will be revved up for a Friday night national contest at home coming off that big win on the road at Blacksburg. Washington coming cross-country can't be helpful but they at least have had a week off to lick the wounds of losing the Apple Cup. I watched the Colts last week and their offense revolves around Taylor and the running game. Richardson's passing ability is laughable at best so I gotta think the Steelers defense will torture him on his dropbacks. Colts run D is not the greatest and maybe this is the time Najee Harris really breaks out.

 

[Grant Green]

The two I like the most right now is Rutgers ML tomorrow night against Washington and the Steelers -1 1/2 on the road at the Colts. Gotta think the Knights, Scarlet edition will be revved up for a Friday night national contest at home coming off that big win on the road at Blacksburg. Washington coming cross-country can't be helpful but they at least have had a week off to lick the wounds of losing the Apple Cup. I watched the Colts last week and their offense revolves around Taylor and the running game. Richardson's passing ability is laughable at best so I gotta think the Steelers defense will torture him on his dropbacks. Colts run D is not the greatest and maybe this is the time Najee Harris really breaks out.

Good to see you back in the betting thread. Really torn on the Rutgers game so probably sitting it out. I had them last week and I think they are definitely better than people think. My power ratings have Wash as a 1 point fav (and I gave Rutgers a 1.5 point bump for a Friday night game + long travel for UW), but something tells me that they will be a public dog which I hate. Good luck. This game should tell us a lot about these two teams going forward.

 

[Grant Green]

For NFL bettors, there are a number of Wong teaser legs available this week. Cleveland and Indy have point totals of 40 or less, making them more appealing.
Indy +1.5 at home vs Pit
NO +2 at ATL
TB +2 at home vs Phi
Cleveland +2 at LV
Buffalo +2 at Balt

For anyone not familiar, the Wong teaser is really the best (only, according to some) way to profit on a teaser. It is moving a home/road underdog of +1.5 to +2.5 points up to +7.5 to +8.5 (through key numbers of 3, 4, 6, 7) or a home favorite of -7.5 to -8.5 down to -1.5 to -2.5. I would only play a teaser at -120 (or less). Vegas books starting charging -130, but many offshores still at -120.

 

[MtNittany]

Anything I win between now and Saturday is getting plowed back into IU vs. MD.

 

[Grant Green]

Anything I win between now and Saturday is getting plowed back into IU vs. MD.

On IU? I bet them at -6.5 on the open.

 

[MtNittany]

On IU? I bet them at -6.5 on the open.

I've been on them since week one. Love their coach. Coached at IUP at one point ironically.

 

[Grant Green]

I've been on them since week one. Love their coach. Coached at IUP at one point ironically.

Me too, except for UCLA. Yeah, Cignetti (google him ) will keep scoring if given the opportunity.

 

[Erial_Lion]

He gets to our game at around 9:35. He also talks about the Maryland-Indiana game that you guys had mentioned.

 

[Grant Green]

He gets to our game at around 9:35. He also talks about the Maryland-Indiana game that you guys had mentioned.

I laughed when he said he hadn't bet on a game like UGA vs Bama for 10 years. Yeah, I have zero interest in betting on games like that. Great to watch but not a lot of betting edge. Looks like I'm oppo on the Indiana game. I disagree with him on Franklin - I think he is very interested in covering the spread in any game. Just my opinion though.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I laughed when he said he hadn't bet on a game like UGA vs Bama for 10 years. Yeah, I have zero interest in betting on games like that. Great to watch but not a lot of betting edge.

Exactly. People that know what I do always ask me things like "who did you bet on in the Michigan-Ohio State game today, the Eagles game tomorrow, etc". When I tell them I have no opinion, they are perplexed...and think I'm crazy that my $ is on Georgia Southern, WNBA games, Euro golf matchups, random props, etc.

It's also funny to me that Eddie pretty much comes from central casting for the guys that I work/worked with...they aren't flashy, wearing gold chains and expensive suits, smooth talking, etc. They are dudes in tshirts and hoodies that like to stay at home, are a little socially akward and/or boring, nerdy, etc. It's totally different from what people picture when they think of a pro bettor.

 

[CDLionFL]

Exactly. People that know what I do always ask me things like "who did you bet on in the Michigan-Ohio State game today, the Eagles game tomorrow, etc". When I tell them I have no opinion, they are perplexed...and think I'm crazy that my $ is on Georgia Southern, WNBA games, Euro golf matchups, random props, etc.

I love that. When I cash on Montana State, Northern Kentucky, and Lipscomb during basketball season, people ask me wtf I'm doing. I tell them that there is money being given away in numerous arenas across this country every night and it's my job to find them.

 

[Grant Green]

Take it for what it's worth

 

[CDLionFL]

SUNJ gives me one checkmark in the best bet department for the weekend.

 

[CDLionFL]

Saturday carnage:
Wins - Rutgers ML, Indiana, Navy, UNLV ML, Stony Brook ML, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Illinois
Losses - Ole Miss, OK St, PSU team total over 32 1/2

9-3 Saturday, a thing of beauty.

This Steelers pick though….

 

[MtNittany]

I was big on EMU and IU. Both got it done for me. UNL, Tulane, OK, Bama, LSU were all winners. Only loser was PSU which I offset w/ an in game -7.5 bet.

 

[MtNittany]

Already on IU -13.5 at the temporary field in Chicago. Also Army at Tulsa. Caught off guard by the Michigan line at Washington and had to take them getting points.

 

[StamfordBridgeVikingatLeftOffensiveTackle]

I like to see people win. My last bet was my senior year of high school - Cowboys/Broncos Super Bowl. I lost. I quit betting.

 

[MtNittany]

I like to see people win. My last bet was my senior year of high school - Cowboys/Broncos Super Bowl. I lost. I quit betting.

I watched my co-worker kill it last year and deposited $100 at the start of the season. Since then I've probably cashed in $6 or $700 and still have $300 to bet this weekend. My max bets are usually $100. I waste a lot on $10 and $15 high paying parlays, but it makes it fun. I also get scared and cash out in game more than I should. But like the parlays make it fun, the cash out opportunities make it a little less stressful.

 

[Grant Green]

I go through every box score to adjust team power ratings. One thing to watch is misleading box scores, where a team wins that shouldn't have. Sometimes those teams will be a bit overrated in the following weeks. Sorry, @CDLionFL but your Rutgers win was a big one. I was away for the weekend. How did UW lose? Here are the standouts...(ypp= yards per play, TO=turn over margin)

Washington At Rutgers: Lost 21-18 but outgained Rutgers 521-300yds and 7.9-5.2 ypp

EMU at Kent St: Won 52-33. Outgained KSU 486-422 but KSU had 6.8 ypp to 5.9 and was -4 in TO (should have been a closer game)

UTSA at ECU: lost 30-20 but outgained ECU 456-341 yds and 5.1-4.8. UTSA -1 in TO

N. Illinois at NC State: Lost 24-17, but outgained NC St 283-171yds and 3.9-3.6ypp. -4 in TOs

Charlotte at Rice: Won 21-20, but outgained by Rice 463-304yds and 4.7-6.6 ypp

OU at Auburn: Won 27-21 but was outgained by AU 482-291 and 6.4- 6.2-6.4 ypp. -1TOs

Arkansas at TAM: Lost 21-17 but outgained TAM 379-297yds and 5.3-4.9 ypp. -3TOs

Louisville at ND: Lost 31-24 but outgained ND 395-280yds. YPP was tied 5.2-5.2. -1TOs

Stanford not as bad as 40-14 loss to Clemson

 

[MtNittany]

EMU at Kent St: Won 52-33. Outgained KSU 486-422 but KSU had 6.8 ypp to 5.9 and was -4 in TO (should have been a closer game)

I bet against KSU due to their injuries having played UT and PSU back to back. I noticed the box score as well and won't be counting on EMU for anything again.

 

[CDLionFL]

According to that tweet, Rutgers had the 'worst' win of the weekend. I don't mind it, haha.

I wanted to bet EMU simply because Kent State was on their 3rd QB but I have a hard time betting on bad to below-average teams, especially on the road, so I decided against that one. I like the philosophy of cashing out if doing so will still make money (obviously) and I start having question marks about that last leg getting home. One bet I could have cashed out for 9-1 but let ride for the full 25-1 was Bryson DeChambeau at the US Open. I agonized about cashing out on Saturday night but decided to say f it and let it ride.

 

[Grant Green]

I bet against KSU due to their injuries having played UT and PSU back to back. I noticed the box score as well and won't be counting on EMU for anything again.

Kent is literally the lowest ranked team in FBS, so a bet against them isn't a terrible approach. I'm always cautious with MAC teams going into conf play. They can look great in non-con and then can't cover as a fav against MAC teams. Toledo in the past few years is a good example. Vice versa works too, like in this case. Weird **** happens in the MAC.

 

[Grant Green]

According to that tweet, Rutgers had the 'worst' win of the weekend. I don't mind it, haha.

I wanted to bet EMU simply because Kent State was on their 3rd QB but I have a hard time betting on bad to below-average teams, especially on the road, so I decided against that one. I like the philosophy of cashing out if doing so will still make money (obviously) and I start having question marks about that last leg getting home. One bet I could have cashed out for 9-1 but let ride for the full 25-1 was Bryson DeChambeau at the US Open. I agonized about cashing out on Saturday night but decided to say f it and let it ride.

Interesting. I was on UL-Laf and it says their net success rate was not good. However, they had a better ypp than Wake. Must have just broken a number of big plays, but otherwise went nowhere. I'd like to know if he is using the standard SP def for success rate

• 1st down
  A play is considered successful if the offense gains 50% of the yards needed to get to the next first down
• 2nd down
  A play is considered successful if the offense gains 70% of the yards needed to get to the next first down
• 3rd and 4th down
  A play is considered successful if the offense gains 100% of the yards needed to get to the next first down

 

[Erial_Lion]

Take a look at Navy/Air Force o34.5.

 

[Grant Green]

Take a look at Navy/Air Force o34.5.

Funny, that jumped out to me last night. SP has the total around 49 I think. Navy is not running the same old offense and can score points. My knee jerk reaction is always go under when service academies play, but that may be the books knee jerk as well. The service academy totals have gotten so low that it may be time to flip the script. Going to be really interesting when Army plays Navy.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Also will be hitting "refresh" again and again at several books soon waiting for the Mets-Braves game 2 to hit the screen, assuming that they won't price the loser of game 1 as strongly as they should. Today has split written all over it.

 

[Grant Green]

Also will be hitting "refresh" again and again at several books soon waiting for the Mets-Braves game 2 to hit the screen, assuming that they won't price the loser of game 1 as strongly as they should. Today has split written all over it.

Yikes, Braves already bet up to -450. Did you get in? I'm considering the Mets at that price.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Yikes, Braves already bet up to -450. Did you get in? I'm considering the Mets at that price.

I played it at -390, but Sale scratched so a no-play. I re-popped it on Grant Holmes at -290 (though I liked it better with Sale at his price).

 

[1995PSUGrad]

According to that tweet, Rutgers had the 'worst' win of the weekend. I don't mind it, haha.

I wanted to bet EMU simply because Kent State was on their 3rd QB but I have a hard time betting on bad to below-average teams, especially on the road, so I decided against that one. I like the philosophy of cashing out if doing so will still make money (obviously) and I start having question marks about that last leg getting home. One bet I could have cashed out for 9-1 but let ride for the full 25-1 was Bryson DeChambeau at the US Open. I agonized about cashing out on Saturday night but decided to say f it and let it ride.

I was at the US Open that Sunday, and I cashed out.

 

[Bison13]

What’s the deal with the Michigan game this week?

 

[Erial_Lion]

What’s the deal with the Michigan game this week?

Seems pretty much in line with the power ratings I’ve seen…Michigan slightly ahead of Washington, but the HFA bump makes Wash a sub-3 point favorite.

 

[Bison13]

Didn’t Michigan start out as the favorite? Seems the line has moved quite a bit

 

[Erial_Lion]

Didn’t Michigan start out as the favorite? Seems the line has moved quite a bit

Possibly for a moment at places taking peanuts…but it’s been steadily at 2.5 or a light 3 since it really hit the board on Sunday.

 

[Grant Green]

Possibly for a moment at places taking peanuts…but it’s been steadily at 2.5 or a light 3 since it really hit the board on Sunday.

What’s the deal with the Michigan game this week?

Or if it was posted as an "open" on a site like vegasinsider, it could have been a 'game of the year' (preseason) line or something. I've adjusted Michigan down by something like 8 points and now have them just about even with UW. And yeah, 2 to 3 points for HFA (ActionNetwork has it at 2.3 pts for UW) to give UW the edge.