I just saw that Memphis is AT USF on Friday night. I don't think there's a chance in hell of them playing that game on that night.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
Yeah, I should have put "at" USF in my OP. If the hurricane hits where predicted as a CAT 5, I would also doubt that game would get played. I would hope they would decide that by Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Grant - what do you think of little $5 bets like I posted above (USC @ MN) if you can find them? It's a weird feeling w/ me and Hard Rock. I've taken out more than I deposited, and will take out more. The balance is like free money even though it's my money.
I'm guessing you mean small money bets with huge payouts? I think any bet for any amount of money is a good bet if the payout is better than your perceived chances of it happening. If you make a bet that pays 100 to 1, and you think/calculate that it has a 3% chance of happening, it's a great bet. That may take a boatload of data mining to figure out if it's actually a good value. Without having any tangible evidence, my guess is that most of the high payout exotic bets being offered are probably in the sports books favor (kind of like betting snake eyes at a craps table).
In regard to money management. I'm not sure how long you've been betting but if you do it long enough you are going to have big bankroll swings. When I first start betting seriously in 2016, I was something like 58% on college football over a season and I thought I was the ****. After some ups and downs maintaining an somewhat constant balance, I had a terrible run and lost most of my previous winnings. If you are doing it for fun, I would recommend leaving any winnings in the account because there will be losing streaks and some could be bad. Winning money at sports betting over the long run is really hard and the percentage of people that can do it is relatively small.
It was a 10000-1 bet on USC and MN being tied at both the half and end of regulation. I see stuff like that and it's better than a lottery ticket. It actually has a chance of happening.
Intuitively, I would think that would happen more often than 1 in 10,000 games (meaning value) but you never know.
You could get @LionJim to figure out the probability of both events and then multiply them together to get the probability of both happening. That said, you may have to bet this hundreds, if not thousands of times before it pays off. You could eat through a bankroll of say $1000, easily before you ever hit.
I think the odds are off. Not my bet or my management. Look at lines just under 10 pts with competitive teams. Is a first half tie out of the question? Of course not. Is OT out of the question? If the first half was tied, why couldn't the 2nd half be tied? 100-1? I'm betting at most 2 of these a week for either $5 or $10 each.
Understood, but you have to quantify it and not just conclude that it is not "out of the question". Using a very small sample size of this past weekend, I count 5 games that were tied at half and 1 game that went to OT out of 49 total games. (Note, the 1 game that went to OT was not tied at half and the 5 that were tied at half did not go to OT).
1/49 = 2.04%
5/49 = 10.2%
Probability of both occurring = 0.0204 x 0.102 = 0.0021 (or 0.21%). That means you would expect to see this once in every ~480 games. There is probably some small correlation to both happening, so that the probability of OT is a little higher if the game is tied at half. So, maybe it's more like 1 in every 400 to 425 games. Yes, it seems likely that the odds are off and it is a good bet. However, are you willing to make this wager hundreds of times before you get a payoff? At $5 per bet, that could easily take $1000+ of bankroll to hit. If you are comfortable with that, go for it.
Addendum: I'm slow today, so I just looked at all the results in Week 1-6. I count 14 OT games and only 1 of those was tied at half. Figuring there are 55-60 games per week, that's 1 in ~350 games. If they really give 10000 to 1 for every game, I would put a bunch of cash in the account and bet every single game every week, expecting to lose thousands before I win big. I suspect that they won't give those odds for all games though.
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It occurred to me after leaving my desk that there is no way a book is giving 10000 to 1 odds. I looked back at your initial post and saw that is +10000, or 100 to 1. That's not even close to worth a bet.
I don't see any I like this weekend. I don't know. I just sometimes see games and think 17's and 28's
I never said it was 10K to one. Obviously 100 to one. I bet another game in the same fashion earlier in the season at 200-1 for $10 and it was tied until a FG right before half. We're talking about $30 worth of bets in half a season. And the USC/MN game hit if not for a review. I just think the odds are really high sometimes and the bets aren't offered hardly at all on Hard Rock this week.
see quote above.
if you had bet $1 on, let conservatively say 300 games this season, you would have won $100 once and lost $299. Yes, relatively small sample size but not a good start. Track it the rest of the season, but I'm pretty confident it won't get close to 1 in 100. You can be selective to try and skew the odds but even the best can't make up the difference between the probability of occurrence and the payout.
Like I said, they are throw away bets. Not a system. I see really high odds and wonder if that could work. The really high odds on SC/MN seemed off to me.
Yup. Thanks man. You've been helpful following your posts. Still can't believe I have PSU at -3. Wish it was for more than $75. The REAL #1 team in the country gets the week off. Rest well Hoosiers. Rest well.
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FWIW, I have Denver as a 1 pt fav over Chargers, even with their bye. I have GB (-5) as a 7pt fav over Arizona.
No. Indiana is going to slaughter Tosu the week before Tosu/SCum.
Ha. I'll settle for cover, but would love to see it. A moneyline sprinkle is probably in order.
Look ahead spots this week. These shouldn't be auto bets, but are intended to factor into your handicap.
Syracuse (-4) at NC State
Syracuse is off a fairly big win vs UNLV and plays ranked Pitt next week. I actually like NC State here, even without McCall and this is starting to get bet down to 3.5
Louisville (-7.5) at UVA
Louisville plays Miami next week
Florida (+15.5) at Tennessee
South Carolina (+21.5) at Bama
UT plays Bama next week. While Florida is typically a big game, some look ahead is probably in play for Bama
Miss St (-33.5) at UGA
Texas (-14) vs OU
UGA plays Texas next week. Same deal as UF vs UT, Texas vs OU is a big game, but this year I think UGA is bigger.
GA tech (-4.5) at UNC
GA Tech plays ND next week
Purdue (+19.5) at Illinois
Illinois plays Michigan next week (Purdue is on the no-bet list for me)
Syracuse (-4) at NC State
Syracuse is off a fairly big win vs UNLV and plays ranked Pitt next week. I actually like NC State here, even without McCall and this is starting to get bet down to 3.5
Louisville (-7.5) at UVA
Louisville plays Miami next week
Florida (+15.5) at Tennessee
South Carolina (+21.5) at Bama
UT plays Bama next week. While Florida is typically a big game, some look ahead is probably in play for Bama
Miss St (-33.5) at UGA
Texas (-14) vs OU
UGA plays Texas next week. Same deal as UF vs UT, Texas vs OU is a big game, but this year I think UGA is bigger.
GA tech (-4.5) at UNC
GA Tech plays ND next week
Purdue (+19.5) at Illinois
Illinois plays Michigan next week (Purdue is on the no-bet list for me)
Interesting interview with Ken Pomeroy that gets into a lot of the challenges faced making preseason numbers in College Basketball (I'm sure that those making NCAAF numbers face the same challenges)...
Probably a lot of pressure for him. Don't a lot of the books just use his preseason numbers to set lines?
Pretty close...there was even a year about a decade ago where BOL opened up a couple of nights before opening night with every single game at Ken's projected line/total. The thing is, Ken doesn't do any type of tweaks for injuries or players being ruled ineligible late. So there were several games that moved VERY strongly away from the opener. It was only like $200 limits, so nothing too crazy to take advantage of...but still some great opportunities out there (though I think I ended up averaging like 5+ points of CLV across 15 plays and went under .500 on them).
Ah, the days when BOL put the opening CFB lines out. Always a few that were pretty far off.
Why do a feel like CLV is a curse sometimes (I know it's not)?
Wait on it. I'm seeing -3.5 at numerous places so Hard Rock will probably follow suit.
Also, Arizona just got bet down from +4.5 to 3 at BYU. If the Hard Rock is slow to adjust, may be worth a few bucks.
MTSU feels like a live dog tonight.
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I see these lines on teams I don't know a lot about on nights like these (usually at home) and figure, well they're favored for a reason. Do I want to bet on the worse team? $50 bets. Actually $100 on JMU b/c Coastal sucks.
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From a betting perspective, this is an unusually interesting weekend with many narrow point spreads…. some involving home teams. 
Just an observation, the UTEP coach seems like he could be one of the most irritating men on the planet.
They all came home tonight Grant. I'm on MD tomorrow night and if they do me right, I will have a LOT of $$ on PSU Saturday.
While placing the MD bet, I couldn't resist this and placed it in your honor. If it somehow hits, I'm sending you half for a nice dinner.
They all came home tonight Grant. I'm on MD tomorrow night and if they do me right, I will have a LOT of $$ on PSU Saturday.
While placing the MD bet, I couldn't resist this and placed it in your honor. If it somehow hits, I'm sending you half for a nice dinner.
How does Cal get off the mat after (in the past few weeks) going to Auburn and Florida St and then losing to Miami in dramatic fashion with the emotion of College Game day? And now has to travel to Pitt, who is probably better than a lot of people think.
I like to separate my betting from my porn...God help anyone that pays attention to any of that garbage. KellyinVegas already played out this schtick a decade ago.
I have a feeling that @PSUJam was only paying attention to 2 things.
LOL at KellyinVegas. She sure has parlayed that 'cute chick bettor' into a media gig. Gotta give her credit for that, but I'm not about to tail her bets.
There's a thing going around about big 10 teams traveling 2+ time zones. 1-8 ats so far this season. Small sample size but holding true so far in iowa.
Looking at UCLA +4 vs Minny later today. Hope psu can buck the trend.
Looking at UCLA +4 vs Minny later today. Hope psu can buck the trend.
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