There were a few early books that had it at Mich -1 or -1.5 for a few minutes on Sunday morning, but they were quickly bet towards Wash before the real books opened (and really, it takes little to move it a few points at that point, especially when some dead numbers are involved).
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
Bad Beat story time:
I got a $28 bonus bet from Hard Rock yesterday. I decided to throw that free money on a MLB props parlay. Here was the list:
Chourio hit
Contreras hit
Tatis hit
Merrill hit
Urshela no hit
Soler no hit
The top 4 on the board all took care of their hits in the 1st inning. Urshela really didn't threaten anything. Soler had a rip into the gap in his first AB but it got tracked down. 9th inning, 4-0 Padres, Soler hitting 2nd with 1 out. Suarez gets him 0-2. Catcher sets up for a high fastball. Suarez doesn't get it high enough and Soler fights it off for an opposite-field bloop single. Naturally, Suarez gets the next 2 guys out to end the game. Would have paid 18-1.
Try again some other time.
I got a $28 bonus bet from Hard Rock yesterday. I decided to throw that free money on a MLB props parlay. Here was the list:
Chourio hit
Contreras hit
Tatis hit
Merrill hit
Urshela no hit
Soler no hit
The top 4 on the board all took care of their hits in the 1st inning. Urshela really didn't threaten anything. Soler had a rip into the gap in his first AB but it got tracked down. 9th inning, 4-0 Padres, Soler hitting 2nd with 1 out. Suarez gets him 0-2. Catcher sets up for a high fastball. Suarez doesn't get it high enough and Soler fights it off for an opposite-field bloop single. Naturally, Suarez gets the next 2 guys out to end the game. Would have paid 18-1.
Try again some other time.
I had a buddy 30 or so years ago named Fresh Phil. Back in the phone in, write it down bookie days, at one point he had lost 17 NFL and college bets in a row. He calls the bookie to ask about a Hawaii line to try to get some back. Bookie says Hawaii is on the mainland - already kicked off.
Phil: What do you have?
Bookie: All I have is Ice
Phil: What's Ice?
Bookie: Hockey
Phil: I don't know anything about hockey
Bookie: I'm looking at your sheet. You don't know anything about football either.
True story. Phil failed out of FAU and made it to UCF where he became the biggest bookie on campus and ended up buying a failed golf course for $1.5M when still in his twenties.
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Ouch. Always important to get the best number and 7 is a key number. Another reason I don't like big parlays - wait for a better number and you may get a worse number on another game.
Some big lookahead spots. Next week:
Ohio State plays Oregon
PSU plays USC (Minnesota actually has some statistic edges on USC too)
Florida plays Tennessee (not sure how much this matters with either team at this point though)
Ole Miss plays LSU and is coming off a tough loss (also looking at South Carolina vs Ole Miss)
Stanford is off Clemson and plays ND next week.
Ohio State plays Oregon
PSU plays USC (Minnesota actually has some statistic edges on USC too)
Florida plays Tennessee (not sure how much this matters with either team at this point though)
Ole Miss plays LSU and is coming off a tough loss (also looking at South Carolina vs Ole Miss)
Stanford is off Clemson and plays ND next week.
24 points seems like a lot give Michigan State.
Oregon hasn't looked dominating, Michigan State held their own against OSU until the referees took over and I think John Smith is going to have MSU motivated for this game against the Ducks. And Oregon looking ahead to OSU.
Oregon hasn't looked dominating, Michigan State held their own against OSU until the referees took over and I think John Smith is going to have MSU motivated for this game against the Ducks. And Oregon looking ahead to OSU.
Fun fact: Iowa is 4-0 to the over this season. In 3 of the 4 games they have scored enough points to almost cover the over themselves (they actually did vs Ill St.). I've won so many best on Iowa unders over the years, but looks like that trend may be ending. Improved offense and their D is not quite what it has been.
I don't get involved in a lot of quarter/half bets. With quarters, I'm always concerned that there is no incentive to score when the clock is running down. Why quarter and not the whole game?
I thought I heard something last week about Army being really good in either the first quarter or the first half. Their cover trend was a high percentage. Gotta go dig that fact up before I think about it.
Just want to say that this is a most compelling thread, way above my pay grade. Carry on.
If you were young and looking for a career (or a good side hustle), you could be really good at it. Math/Statistics backgrounds are where 90+% of successful handicappers come from. But damn, it's a lot of work.
I'm going back to the well this weekend with Arsenal win-to-nil at -125, just for LJ.
Conflicted, as UNLV was one of my big bet-on teams going into the season. I will probably play them small tonight because I think the number is a bit inflated and they seem due to come back to earth.
Edit. Late money seems to be coming in on SYR. I may see how this starts and try to live bet something close to pick.
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Anyone wager on our boys? I did not but regret not taking a live line when there was no score.
I did bet Pitt
I did bet Pitt
I had PSU -13.5 in the 2nd half. A good bet imo that didn't happen I had Wisconsin for a hun. Pitt did me a solid. I'll appreciate their existence for about 30 minutes.
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Teams with look ahead 3-4 ATS, and I'm really not sure if Florida should count here. I probably shouldn't have included them.
Opening Lines
Louisville -7 at UVA seems much too low
JMU vs CC at -9.5 a few points too low
Kentucky -12 vs Vandy - a little overreaction on Vandy? I got more like -17.
Rutgers -2.5 vs Wisky seems like it should be closer to pick.
Memphis -6.5 vs USF a bit too high.
UGA and Army both giving too many points, but not sure I'd step in front of either next weekend (UGA does have look ahead to UT though)
PSU -5 at USC may be a touch high, but PSU is pretty dominant in a number of advanced stat comparison.
Louisville -7 at UVA seems much too low
JMU vs CC at -9.5 a few points too low
Kentucky -12 vs Vandy - a little overreaction on Vandy? I got more like -17.
Rutgers -2.5 vs Wisky seems like it should be closer to pick.
Memphis -6.5 vs USF a bit too high.
UGA and Army both giving too many points, but not sure I'd step in front of either next weekend (UGA does have look ahead to UT though)
PSU -5 at USC may be a touch high, but PSU is pretty dominant in a number of advanced stat comparison.
Not much on the misleading box scores. These games hardly qualify, but thought I would post anyway.
JMU probably should have won. Not sure how they didn't.
I heard a while ago that a turnover is worth about 4 to 5 points. I find that often hold close to true when looking at box scores.
Notes
Rutgers and Nebraska was pretty even in yardage (Rutgers -1 TOs)
Bama much higher ypp than Vandy but was -2 TOs
Army gained 10.5 ypp vs Tulsa!! Who is the Army team?
| Score | yards | ypp | TO | |
| Mia(OH) | 20 | 350 | 5.1 | |
| Toledo | 30 | 396 | 5.2 | -1 |
| game should have been closer | ||||
| App | 37 | 473 | 5.6 | -2 |
| Marshall | 52 | 365 | 6.9 | |
| game should have been closer | ||||
| BC | 14 | 319 | 5.4 | -3 |
| UVA | 24 | 339 | 5.2 | |
| this was close to even | ||||
| JMU | 19 | 399 | 4.9 | |
| UL-Mon | 21 | 257 | 4.3 | -1 |
I heard a while ago that a turnover is worth about 4 to 5 points. I find that often hold close to true when looking at box scores.
Notes
Rutgers and Nebraska was pretty even in yardage (Rutgers -1 TOs)
Bama much higher ypp than Vandy but was -2 TOs
Army gained 10.5 ypp vs Tulsa!! Who is the Army team?
I wonder how much the upheaval for USF in light of this hurricane is going to have an effect on them. The Bucs are headed to New Orleans tomorrow and I've gotta think that USF is thinking of doing the same to Memphis. With Vandy, it's hard to bet against this QB but then I say that and I think back to how the heck they got beat by Georgia State.
Hmmm. I think it would be too risky for the books to assume the USF game would get moved. Maybe a disruption in practice would have an effect on the spread. It's possible that I've overvalued USF based on their competitive game vs Bama.
When I saw Diego was moving to Vandy this season, I marked them as a bet-on team. Of course, the GA State game was the only time I bet on them and then got spooked on the next 2 games. I hate betting against him, but if there is a time to do it, it's now.
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