BWI Sport Betting Thread

[MtNittany]

Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.

On HR you can take a full cash out offer on anything but a parlay for a few minutes after you place it - sort of a buyer's remorse grace period. I use it sometimes if I realize that I think a line may move or if I just want to do something different. There's no cost.

Edit/cavaet - this of course doesn't usually apply to in game betting and sometimes even close to game time betting. But a day in advance, you'll have time to be able to take it back at no cost unless the line moved.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.

And best option is to just do nothing and move along, unless you now think there is value in the OSU side.

 

[MtNittany]

And best option is to just do nothing and move along, unless you now think there is value in the OSU side.

I admit that if I'm watching a game (even w/ a 30 or so second delay) and I get a bad vibe early on, I'll watch for a cash out to lose $5 or $10 instead of $50. Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.

 

[Grant Green]

Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

 

[MtNittany]

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

I think I posted last week I live-bet IU -32.5 vs. Nebraska for like $75 and laughed that they even offered it. I think I won $50. I had already won $300 on IU anyway. You can catch some obvious ones.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

 

[MtNittany]

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

You can ladder-ride live bets on a team that you are watching manhandle an opponent and make more in a quarter or a half than you do on 2 other games you researched all week. Granted you'll get more -120's, but when it's obvious what's happening in front of your eyes, why not profit on it?

The conversation in my mind goes "I don't think this is going to be close". Bet more. "There is no way this is going to be close and the line is too low" Bet more. 5 minutes later "The line is still too low" Bet More.

 

[Grant Green]

It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.

For sure. I would only do it if I felt the other side is now +EV. For the record, this is a pretty rare play for me.

You can ladder-ride live bets on a team that you are watching manhandle an opponent and make more in a quarter or a half than you do on 2 other games you researched all week. Granted you'll get more -120's, but when it's obvious what's happening in front of your eyes, why not profit on it?

The conversation in my mind goes "I don't think this is going to be close". Bet more. "There is no way this is going to be close and the line is too low" Bet more. 5 minutes later "The line is still too low" Bet More.

I would be very wary of laying -120 in most cases.