I didn't think it was a bad decision. One of my pet peeves is people/announcers/coaches treating an 8 point game as a "one score" game, when they should be handled differently. Thought this decision was pretty much a coin flip.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
They were 9 yards from a potential game tying TD. Even if they failed, the Rams would be pinned deep.
Sorry, not seeing it at all.
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That was a good ole Franklin Scoreboard Math move by Pierce. I had Raiders +7 1/2 so I was happy with it but there’s no guarantee you get the ball back let alone get all the way down there again to get the TD you need.
Lost in that was the horrendous play calling. They ran ran ran to get to the 5 and then start throwing it, something that had been an adventure all day. But, that’s what you get when you hire Luke Getsy as your OC.
Lost in that was the horrendous play calling. They ran ran ran to get to the 5 and then start throwing it, something that had been an adventure all day. But, that’s what you get when you hire Luke Getsy as your OC.
They need to convert on the 4th and 9, then convert on the 2 pointer, then hold the Rams from scoring (with LA getting the ball back, likely at the 30, with 2:46 on the clock), and then win it in OT. By kicking the FG, they now don't need to worry about the 2 pointer, and also would win it in regulation with a TD if they can hold the Rams (who are likely more conservative with their play calling than if they need to score). Pierce had 2:46 left, all 3 timeouts, and the 2 minute warning. I wouldn't have an issue with a coach playing it either way in that spot...certainly nothing fishy about how they played it.
I treat a 7 point game differently than an 8 point game in that spot...but it seems that most treat them the same.
UO and UCLA cover and USC does not. B10 teams travelling 2+ time zones now 5-11 ATS.
PSA for Indiana fans. Rourke will be out for at least a few weeks.
Add note: Louisville is in a huge sandwich spot this week at BC, playing a tough game vs Miami last week and playing Clemson next week.
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No Pitt for me this week. I think the line is a little high, but I see some pretty big advance stat differences in Pitt's favor. Any Pitt opponent that is half decent (sorry UNC) has played them close this season. Seems like a dog pick if anything.
Vikings at what number? And what odds?
Mostly 5s now (at least Bookmaker, betonline, Pinny...). Some big groups hitting Syr?
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Does anyone know where is bet on college wrestling? I have found a site (last year I found one) with futures but nothing on duals, tournaments, higher profile individuals. I'm interested in wagering on some of the matches in the upcoming nwca tournament that will be held at PSU on November 16th. In particular, I'd like the Carter Starocci vs Parker Keckeisen match and maybe a few others. Any help would be appreciated.
Some more math tidbits for you. The standard odds for a sports bet is -110, or pay $110 to win $100. In order for a bettor to just break even from the vig they have to win at a rate of at least 52.4%. If you were to only bet lines at -115, you now have to win at a rate of about 53.4% (pretty sure) to break even. For context, (@Erial_Lion please jump in), I believe long term 53-55% is a reasonable range for a lot of pros. Over 55% (long term) is exceptional. I think Billy Walters (considered GOAT) was up around 58%. That's how hard it is to win over a long period and how small the edge is.
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Yep, beating that 52.4% is the key to winning. The more you do it, the more you win. Volume also plays a big role, as huge volume at 54% will be more successful than small volume at 56% (if you're using proper money management).
I was listening to an interesting podcast earlier this week from the late GroovinMahoovin talking about being a successful bettor. He said that starting out, way too many people focus on how to "handicap" (and how to pick winners). In actuality, the most important thing to learn is how to "bet"...when to buy points (answer for most will be NEVER), when to play parlays (also pretty much NEVER), how to line shop, how to exploit bonuses, how to chase steam/follow winning bettors/groups, not to hedge, how to use teasers, money management, etc. (and the one that I'd add for 2024...don't cash out bets if the house allows it).
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I bet 25, 50, 100, 150 and don't expect any long term benefit - anyone that would, well good luck.
I think it's about feel and timing (like golf). You feel it, you go for it. My degenerate co-worker knows the SEC betting and I help him out w/ the B1G. He cleared $5K last weekend He obviously bets a lot more than I do.
In game betting just changes everything. Everything from piling on a team that you can see is superior to finding a way to counter a bad bet you can't take back.
Indeed. IMO, it's much like a stock market.
Another (almost) never - Never tease college football or point totals!
And the weather is supposed to favor BC. If they could only quit fumbling the football
Really, it should likely be "never tease anything" at this point in most cases (unless you can still get -110 teasers and are playing Wong/Basic Strategy teasers, and even those were at +100 when Stanford brought them "mainstream"). Only time I'll consider a college teaser is if I'm adding it as a leg to a Wong teaser and the total is miniscule.
But never teasing totals is an obvious one...never anything +EV about doing that.
Live betting can be really tricky, but definitely very profitable. I think they run a lot of those on algorithms based on the opening lines and sometimes miss key things like injuries.
Like that Iowa game last year (can't recall opp) with the super low total. Only college game I ever teased (and part of a Wong). I think you considered it too.
Iowa - Northwestern betting line: - On3
Combined points over/under = 30 30. Yes 30. That may be the lowest over under since they started inflating the football, rather than stuffing it full of feathers. I think the smart money, still, may be on the "under". :-)
And yes, this is the only college game I recall teasing in the past ~15 years when I started doing this seriously. I had forgotten that we talked about it until I just searched for it. I also don't remember if it won or lost, lol.
Yeah, you pointed it out to me. Oh look, you found it! Yeah, 26.5 point total vs Rutgers and it went under!!Iowa - Northwestern betting line: - On3
Combined points over/under = 30 30. Yes 30. That may be the lowest over under since they started inflating the football, rather than stuffing it full of feathers. I think the smart money, still, may be on the "under". :-)www.on3.com
And yes, this is the only college game I recall teasing in the past ~15 years when I started doing this seriously. I had forgotten that we talked about it until I just searched for it. I also don't remember if it won or lost, lol.
Grant - my tv is at least 20 seconds behind the rest of the world (Hotwire Fision). I have to turn my phone off during PSU games b/c I know a text = a big play.
ESPN gamecasts are behind Hard Rock obviously. Are there better gamecasts out there?
ESPN gamecasts are behind Hard Rock obviously. Are there better gamecasts out there?
Oh yeah, that's part of what makes it tricky. Many feeds are way behind the game. I don't know if there are faster gamecasts. haven't investigated. I usually wait for break in play or am just really careful if I'm doing it during a drive. @Erial_Lion may have a better idea.
Edit - I'll also add, watch the odds. I notice the places like bovada will charge -115 both ways, or worse. I would avoid places like that. I only live bet on bookmaker and even they jack the prices sometimes
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Not really…I wouldn’t ever play anything in-game during actual play since so many books will put it on a slight delay and then can basically freeroll me based on anything that happened in those 15-30 seconds.
Forgot to mention that they get to our game at 14:35. And yet another sign of how big of a PR miss that the Franklin press conference was, when it gets mentioned in this setting.
I don't think I've heard one person favor BYU this week. UCF seems to be on everyone's card. I got lucky and bet UCF at +2 and +107 (sprinkle) right before it moved to -2. I see juiced -2.5s now. May still be a good number, but at very least, be wary of betting BYU.
“I don’t think I’ve heard one person” meaning talking heads on betting tv/radio shows? Idle curiosity.
Absolutely not. I wouldn't listen to any of those folks for betting direction. I'd be more inclined to bet opposite.
I'm referring to guys on betting podcasts that are actually betting their own money.
So what are your thoughts about the following?
1) UCF has lost 5 in a row
2) UCF's only wins came early in the season against New Hampshire, Sam Houston St and TCU
3) BYU is 7-0, but their road victories are suspect... @ SMU 18-15;@ Wyoming 34-14; @ Baylor 34-28
4) UCF is favored by 1-2 pts. Are their injuries or weather one should consider?
The general consensus I get from a lot of listening is that BYU has been on the lucky side of things. I don't think they are quite as good as their record.
UCF has switched QBs from KJ Jefferson to Jacurri Brown which has made a difference. Way better runner which fits the Gus system better. Should have beat iowa state last week.
No injuries or weather that I know of, but I suspect that Byu may struggle with humidity as the game goes on.
I won a similar bet last year when a highly touted ok st came to a disappointing ucf mid to late season and got waxed. Hoping for a similar result this year. Ucf has lost five in a row which is often a good time to buy on a team as they are undervalued.
Somebody here HATES the Yankees AND had over 8 1/2. That someone was very giddy on that Freeman moonshot.
The beauty of sports betting is you can be wrong 46% of the time And be very profitable. Most people have a hard time with this concept.
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