I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Or maybe 4, and those darned refs screwed them out of the 5th. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
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I can always tell which gamblers are terrible. Because they always win. Just ask them. And usually you don't have to - they'll volunteer the information. Every week they'll talk about their 5 wins. Or maybe 4, and those darned refs screwed them out of the 5th. Meanwhile, they aren't telling you about their 7 (or more) losses. I knew a couple of guys like that .. down the line, they ended up in SERIOUS financial trouble because of their gambling losses.
Why are you so preoccupied with other people's hobbies?
If you don't enjoy or condone sports wagering, perhaps you should just refrain from reading and participating in this thread. Just an idea.
Wut?
Why are you following me around, attempting to criticize me, but always being off the mark?
I have nothing against sports gambling. I like it. I follow it. Used to do it, but I stopped - even though it was a tiny, tiny financial involvement - simply to avoid any appearance of impropriety given what I currently do. I still do it "dry" ... I'll make my picks, but not put down any actual wagers.
I just shared my experience with it. Even when I was on a heater, I almost only ever talked about my absolute crap bets, or my bad beats. You would have thought I'd never won. The guys who only ever mentioned their wins, however ... those were the ones who were losing.
You're preoccupied with me, seemingly. I will criticize that "hobby."
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just go 6-5. that's good enough.So you won't believe me if I tell you I was 10-1 today
LOL. Poop happens. Sometimes you go on hot streaks. Sometimes you're ice cold. If I knew you well enough to know you were also owning up to your losses, I'd believe you. If you were one of those folks who never told anyone your bets beforehand, but also only ever said things about your positive bets ... and those comments weren't that frequent, even though we knew you were betting a lot ... then, that's different.So you won't believe me if I tell you I was 10-1 today
Welp, no way I was going to match or even come close to my 11-1-1 day I had last Saturday. But there was no need to threaten to go the other way with it!!
The Good -- not listening to everyone about BYU-UCF, riding the IU train, correctly wondering how NW was going to score on Iowa
The Bad -- not believing in PSU, thinking Syracuse-Pitt would be close, diving back into the 1-AA pool and finding no water
The Ugly -- falling asleep late in the 3:30 window and waking up after Miami-FSU had kicked and it was 7-0. So instead of betting Miami -20 1/2 like I wanted to, I live bet Miami -27 1/2. FSU scores in the final minute and the game ends 36-14.
Saved by a couple of hockey bets late and a 7-team ML parlay that paid +350 so it was a blah day rather than a rough day.
The Good -- not listening to everyone about BYU-UCF, riding the IU train, correctly wondering how NW was going to score on Iowa
The Bad -- not believing in PSU, thinking Syracuse-Pitt would be close, diving back into the 1-AA pool and finding no water
The Ugly -- falling asleep late in the 3:30 window and waking up after Miami-FSU had kicked and it was 7-0. So instead of betting Miami -20 1/2 like I wanted to, I live bet Miami -27 1/2. FSU scores in the final minute and the game ends 36-14.
Saved by a couple of hockey bets late and a 7-team ML parlay that paid +350 so it was a blah day rather than a rough day.
I've been betting PSU and the 2nd half line for 2 games now (-3.5 yesterday). 2 winners. I also had them at -6.5 and in game -1.5. Another hedge I used yesterday was a $10 bet - 1st half winner (WI) and game winner (PSU) parlayed. Paid $70.
I wouldn't take anything from the Pitt vs Syracuse game. I can't ever remember a game where there has been 3 pick 6's at any level (plus 2 more INTs). I'll give some credit to Pitt's defense, but that is also very unlucky. However, I wouldn't pass judgement on a handicap in a game like that.
While you're making sense of Box Scores, please break down the Lions-Titans game for me...possibly the weirdest one I've ever seen.
Misleading box scores for Week 9. There were a few more G5 games, but it was late and I didn't write them down.
Note: While UW should have made this a closer game, this is now the 3rd game where UW has won the box score and lost the game. Something up with their mojo. All three were B10 games travelling 2+ time zones.
EDIT FOR ADD NOTES: Almost forgot to add a few notes I made to myself.
Duke was +6 in TOs and still lost to SMU. I don't know how much longer the Duke TO fortune can continue.
Navy was also -6 in TOs. Never going to cover like that.
| Score | Yards | YPP | TOs marg | |
| GA Tech | 6 | 356 | 4.4 | -2 |
| Va Tech | 21 | 233 | 3.5 | |
| Note: GA Tech also 1/5 on 4th down | ||||
| MSU | 17 | 352 | 5.4 | -1 |
| UM | 24 | 265 | 5.2 | |
| LSU | 23 | 429 | 5.9 | -2 |
| TAM | 38 | 376 | 5.4 | |
| UW | 17 | 318 | 5.5 | -1 |
| IU | 31 | 312 | 4.4 |
EDIT FOR ADD NOTES: Almost forgot to add a few notes I made to myself.
Duke was +6 in TOs and still lost to SMU. I don't know how much longer the Duke TO fortune can continue.
Navy was also -6 in TOs. Never going to cover like that.
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I was just about to post this in the Generic NFL Thread. Detroit had 61 yards passing and got 52 points. Only one “cheap” touchdown, on a punt return.
Oh my! I was travelling and didn't do NFL yet, but just looked. That could be the most misleading box score ever. Ten outgained Det 416 to 225, 5.9 ypp to 4.8, but was -4 in TOs. Were there special teams TDs?
USC covers vs Rutgers, IU covers vs UW, Oregon covers vs Illinois.
B10 traveling 2+ times zones now 5-14 ATS.
bonus note- BC did cover in the Louisville sandwich spot.
And the 4 turnovers set Detroit up at the Tennessee 23, Tennessee 12, Tennessee 26, and Detroit 22...so 3 additional easy scoring opportunities.
But 6-5 doesn't really mean you are winning money, does it? Doesn't it depend on the payout you are getting for each bet?
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For those without ESPN+, an excerpt from an article today that touched on the Lions/Titans game...
www.espn.com
Like, a billion: That's how many weird stats I have about the Lions' win over the Titans, via ESPN Research:
Solak turns the page to NFL Week 9: Toughest teams to figure out, plus a defense of Anthony Richardson
We sort through three confusing teams and one really confusing quarterback, plus the midseason All-Film Team and big NFL trends to watch.
www.espn.com
Like, a billion: That's how many weird stats I have about the Lions' win over the Titans, via ESPN Research:
- The Lions are the first team in NFL history to win by 30-plus points yet be outgained by at least 150 yards since 1933 (which is the first year someone was, like, "Hey, we should keep track of how many yards these teams got in this game").
- The Lions scored 52 points despite only totaling 225 yards of offense, which is the second-fewest yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1941 Packers).
- The Lions had 61 net passing yards, which is the second-fewest passing yards gained in a 50-plus-point outing in NFL history (shoutout to the 1950 Giants).
- The Lions had four touchdown drives of 25 or fewer yards. They're the second team to ever have that many touchdown drives under 25 yards, joining the 1988 Houston Oilers.
- The Lions had five touchdown drives of 30 or fewer yards. Going as far back as the Elias Sports Bureau has data (1978), that had never happened until Sunday.
- The Lions also had five touchdown drives of four or fewer total plays -- only the sixth time that has happened in a single game this century.
- The Lions' average starting field position for the full game was their own 41.8-yard line, the fourth-best starting field position for a game this season.
Does anyone else read / reference this free site?
www.actionnetwork.com
2024 College Football Week 10 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Evan Abrams gets you ready for College Football Week 10 with betting trends, stats, and notes for key games.
www.actionnetwork.com
Unlikely that anyone that will win long term would use it.Does anyone else read / reference this free site?
2024 College Football Week 10 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Evan Abrams gets you ready for College Football Week 10 with betting trends, stats, and notes for key games.
Question for the serious gamblers. Texans are getting 1.5 from the Jets. The Jets are terrible. What am I missing?
Biggest thing is likely that you think the Jets are worse than most NFL cappers would think. This was posted elsewhere behind a paywall when someone asked…
I have seen this comment about 5-10 times so far between twitter and youtube this week. I was in a conversation with it on twitter with another account yesterday too. I am surprised the line has drawn this much discussion!
The way I look at it…
- Two teams played NE in recent weeks and closed within 0.5 points of each other.
- Texans were 1.5 points better in aggregate ratings last week prior to Week 8 games
- Texans lost another WR last week and have not been above 6.0 per play since the Collins injury vs NE, GB, IND.
- Jets have been 5.9 per play or above and 325 per game or above (both higher than average) in two games with Adams, three in a row overall and have won the YPP battle in 5/8 games this season but are 2-6.
You may hear a lot of more casual bettors refer to events like this as a "stinky" or "fishy" line. I think the notion is that the sportsbooks are begging you to bet Houston (because "they know something") and the bettor should be wary. I don't really buy into the whole trap line thing, but I agree with the general notion of being careful with lines that look off to the public. It's usually because they are under or over rating a team based on recent performances. When everyone thinks a team sucks, that's often the best time to buy.
To add to everything @Erial_Lion said (I have NYJ at -1.5), it's not crazy to give an extra 1/2 point to the home team on Thursday night.
Line hasn't really moved all week. Will be interesting to see if it does later today.
Last thing - cluster injuries at WR for Houston and the offense was already hampered without Collins.
Fool me once Jim...
Navy gets a 2nd chance this week. Not the Fightin' Falwells though.
Probably because the line is dropping, likely due to whispers that Allar will play. I would almost never take a buyout offer, as the book is likely getting the best of it. Better EV would be to bet OSU for a portion of the original bet if it goes to -2.5 and hope to hit a middle if the game falls 3.
On HR you can take a full cash out offer on anything but a parlay for a few minutes after you place it - sort of a buyer's remorse grace period. I use it sometimes if I realize that I think a line may move or if I just want to do something different. There's no cost.
Edit/cavaet - this of course doesn't usually apply to in game betting and sometimes even close to game time betting. But a day in advance, you'll have time to be able to take it back at no cost unless the line moved.
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And best option is to just do nothing and move along, unless you now think there is value in the OSU side.
I admit that if I'm watching a game (even w/ a 30 or so second delay) and I get a bad vibe early on, I'll watch for a cash out to lose $5 or $10 instead of $50. Like you said though - stay the course. You'll end up winning more than you think if you just let it play out.
Yep. Whatever buyout price they are giving you, it's likely in their favor. IMO, live betting the other side to get out of a bet is sometimes appropriate. Examples, your team takes an early lead and there is a significant injury, or perhaps your team got lucky with some scores and the other team is the clear better side. In this case, you can hopefully get the other side at a better price and still have a chance to middle it (ex. you bet PSU at +3.5 and then get OSU at +3.5 in-game).
I think I posted last week I live-bet IU -32.5 vs. Nebraska for like $75 and laughed that they even offered it. I think I won $50. I had already won $300 on IU anyway. You can catch some obvious ones.
It’s still never the right mathematical/long term move though, unless the other side itself has value as you’re playing it. What you’ve already bet is done…only give the books more action if you’re making another +EV play on its own.
You can ladder-ride live bets on a team that you are watching manhandle an opponent and make more in a quarter or a half than you do on 2 other games you researched all week. Granted you'll get more -120's, but when it's obvious what's happening in front of your eyes, why not profit on it?
The conversation in my mind goes "I don't think this is going to be close". Bet more. "There is no way this is going to be close and the line is too low" Bet more. 5 minutes later "The line is still too low" Bet More.
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