For sure. I would only do it if I felt the other side is now +EV. For the record, this is a pretty rare play for me.
I would be very wary of laying -120 in most cases.
BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
Tried to post a pic of an article in the Philadelphia Tribune (at phl, thought it was the inquirer I bought. It’s a good daily newspaper).
too big to post it seems
anyway, the total fluke score of 52-14 included a punt return TD, plus 5 td drives of less than 30 yards after 3 turnovers after a long kickoff return and another long punt return.
too big to post it seems
anyway, the total fluke score of 52-14 included a punt return TD, plus 5 td drives of less than 30 yards after 3 turnovers after a long kickoff return and another long punt return.
Yep. I was betting air force anyway but down sized my bet. I may be against you on Indiana today. Tough spot for them. Sparty is feisty at home.
Sigh...another average week at the book...
The Good -- Iowa, Washington, Vandy, and VA Tech choking like they often do
The Bad -- thinking that PSU/OSU would be a slow start...1st half under 23 1/2, game lands 24, thinking Navy would bounce back against a team that lost its coach, thinking Pitt would hang with SMU on the road
The Ugly -- Made money on the Breeders Cup Classic but my trifecta ticket read 1/9 with 1/9/11 with 1/3/9/11/14. The running order came in 11-9-1. I rarely play trifectas and as such, have never hit one. That would have been a great one to hit.
The Good -- Iowa, Washington, Vandy, and VA Tech choking like they often do
The Bad -- thinking that PSU/OSU would be a slow start...1st half under 23 1/2, game lands 24, thinking Navy would bounce back against a team that lost its coach, thinking Pitt would hang with SMU on the road
The Ugly -- Made money on the Breeders Cup Classic but my trifecta ticket read 1/9 with 1/9/11 with 1/3/9/11/14. The running order came in 11-9-1. I rarely play trifectas and as such, have never hit one. That would have been a great one to hit.
I'm throwing in the towel for the year (so I say). Last week wasn't disastrous, but it wasn't great. Remember I'm making $20-$100 bets. Not big money.
A few teams saved me some, but the more I bet, it seems the more I get distracted. I was doing great when I would just look at a line and say Huh?
I haven't bet football in 30 years. I came in this season w/ a $150 deposit and left w/ exactly $1000 in profit (which was my goal). I promised myself if I reached that, I'd never make another deposit again. I still have around $45 in my HR account and will probably bet it on IU. I also have outstanding bets on IU winning the B1G and National Championship.
So if IU rolls on, I'll roll on.
It's fun, and I understand the sharks and their analytics, but I never wanted to get into that. That sounds like a job. I look at it like playing mini-golf. You think you see the best line to hit the putt on, then you just hit it and hope it bounces your way.
For those curious - I think the IU national championship bet was $5 to win $1300. The current cash out is $30.
Here's a cap. Vegas believes in Cig obviously.
A few teams saved me some, but the more I bet, it seems the more I get distracted. I was doing great when I would just look at a line and say Huh?
I haven't bet football in 30 years. I came in this season w/ a $150 deposit and left w/ exactly $1000 in profit (which was my goal). I promised myself if I reached that, I'd never make another deposit again. I still have around $45 in my HR account and will probably bet it on IU. I also have outstanding bets on IU winning the B1G and National Championship.
So if IU rolls on, I'll roll on.
It's fun, and I understand the sharks and their analytics, but I never wanted to get into that. That sounds like a job. I look at it like playing mini-golf. You think you see the best line to hit the putt on, then you just hit it and hope it bounces your way.
For those curious - I think the IU national championship bet was $5 to win $1300. The current cash out is $30.
Here's a cap. Vegas believes in Cig obviously.
Attachments
-
Screenshot 2024-11-04 at 12-26-46 Hard Rock Bet.png
Last edited:
I will sometimes cash out when I realize that my bet is lost. Usually I don't get much of a payout, but it's better than losing the entire amount. Every time that I have cashed out the game ended as I expected and I would have lost the bet, so it has allowed me to recoup a percentage of my loss.
1 college hoops bet made, 1 college hoops bet won. We're off and running!!
I would think that betting on college hoops is more iffy than betting CFB. Idle curiosity.
It's very perilous doing it on the first day of the season or even within the first 3 weeks of the season. But this one I live bet at halftime after watching the first half so at least I had some basis. I'm trying to not make the same mistakes I've made in the past by picking games involving teams I haven't seen anything of or read anything about. Sometimes those work, many times they haven't.
I believe for guys like @Erial_Lion who do a lot of homework on cbb, this is one of the most profitable periods in any sport. Boomakers have a ton of games to post and it takes them a few weeks to dial in power ratings. If a bettor can find those games where bookmakers are off the line, they stand to do very well.
College sports are more volatile, but the pro lines are much tighter and harder to beat overall.
I agree. And you accused me of loving chalk (which is sort of true), but all year the Tue-Fri and Sat games w/ teams no one cares about (other than espn on Thu and B1G on Fri) offered games that just made it almost easy. Give me anyone w/ a pulse over Charlotte (as an example) -7.5 before I guess on NFL. I placed one bet yesterday. Giants team under 20.5. Of course they somehow stitched together 22 points. If not for the Panthers, one would do just as well at the roulette wheel probably wrt the nfl unless they are really schooled and tested.
Last edited:
I've heard the NFL called betting plinko - an exaggeration perhaps but man it seems like so many games come down to the last possession.
Not an accusation on the chalk, just an observation. In my experience, most folks start out by leaning heavily on favorites. Those that improve and learn tend to mix in a lot more dogs.
Those Tues-Fri games may seem almost easy, but then repeat that success over hundreds of bets over years. It's never that easy.
Yeah. I had a run. I recognize it as such. It's strange that picking an Ivy game pays the same as picking UGA/ALA. Not strange, just something to remember I guess.
Yep, except you can't get as high limits on Ivy league games (not a problem for you and I, but could be for others here). And the line is a LOT tighter for UGA vs Bama. I'd rather bet Sun Belt games.
It's so awesome being on a good run when it feels like you just can hit almost anything. Then it sucks hard when you go on a losing streak and all the good bets (like great line moves in your favor) still lose. Every bounce seems to go against you. It can be quite maddening. If you get out without experiencing something like that, more power to you.
Last edited:
Update. Oregon covers at UM in the only 2+ TZ game this week. I will say, this was close. Oregon somewhat controversially punched in a TD in the remaining seconds to cover after UM had clearly thrown in the white flag (stopped calling TOs). For most of the 2nd half, this game was right around the number of 14.
6-14 ATS.
This week Iowa goes to UCLA, Maryland goes to Oregon, and UW comes to PSU. My unsubstantiated memory of the recent past is that JF is terrible at covering the spread (or even winning) the week after OSU/disappointing losses, so careful on that one.
I'm back on that Indiana (-14 -105) train again. Will be a huge public play I'm sure, but that doesn't bother me. Probably against OSU as well, but let's see what that number is.
Sorry. I meant I am likely betting on Indiana against OSU in a few weeks.
Purdue has given OSU issues in the past, but not sure about on the road.
I have this game at -24, so no surprise for me. For comparison, Oregon was -22.5 at home vs Michigan State, so that means Mich State would be a few points better than UMD on a neutral, which seems about right. If the Maryland that defeated USC shows up, it could be close to the spread. If the MD that lost to NW shows up, it could be a blow out.
Edit: Bookmaker and Pinnacle both have Oregon at -23 now, so sharp money has likely bet this line down in UMD's favor.
Last edited:
And considering Sparty worked into Byrd Stadium and beat the Twerps by 3 earlier this season, I'd bet that they're favored by more on a neutral.
TNF was good to me last night but it would have been even better if Burrow could have hit Gesicki with one of those TDs he threw to others.
TNF was good to me last night but it would have been even better if Burrow could have hit Gesicki with one of those TDs he threw to others.
A few interesting spots.
This is Georgia State's 4th straight road game. After somehow beating Vandy, they are winless. They play at JMU, who has the ability to blow teams away.
Pitt is coming off a huge game (and loss) at SMU and goes to play Clemson next week. They have a UVA sandwich game this week at home.
Injury note. Ole Miss has 27 players on the injury list, including their center, 2 starting WRs, and a RB. Could be Laney playing games, but worth checking on status if you are considering this game vs Georgia. If they don't play, it could be a low scoring game considering the strength of the Ole Miss defense and shaky Georgia offense.
This is Georgia State's 4th straight road game. After somehow beating Vandy, they are winless. They play at JMU, who has the ability to blow teams away.
Pitt is coming off a huge game (and loss) at SMU and goes to play Clemson next week. They have a UVA sandwich game this week at home.
Injury note. Ole Miss has 27 players on the injury list, including their center, 2 starting WRs, and a RB. Could be Laney playing games, but worth checking on status if you are considering this game vs Georgia. If they don't play, it could be a low scoring game considering the strength of the Ole Miss defense and shaky Georgia offense.
Perhaps, but oddsmakers won't necessarily consider actual game scores when setting lines. More likely to look at stats (which definitely did favor MSU). I just checked my power ratings and I have MSU 1 point better than Maryland (on a neutral). I've downgraded Sparty a bit over the season.
Currently have 13.5 points of CLV on one of my college hoops plays tonight…early season totals can be incredibly volatile (and just some bad openers).
What could go wrong!? Hope the start of the season has been profitable so far.
This angle was 1-2 this week (in a good way), with Iowa and UW both missing the cover. (@PSU Mike Maryland does cover at Oregon).
B10 teams travelling 2+ time zones are now 7-16 ATS !!! I've bet this selectively and now wish I'd bet it blindly.
Up this week is Nebraska traveling to USC and Oregon to Wisky. Oregon has UW on deck, although there is a bye week in between.
The IU train finally got derailed. After I made the IU bet on the open, I heard a few respected cappers that were betting IU in the first half (-7), thinking that IU would go vanilla in 2H if they got a lead, as they play OSU next. I immediately regretted betting the full game and that regret was realized. Not sure if IU really went vanilla or UM made good adjustments, but the second half looked nothing like the first.
Both spots hit, with JMU crushing GA St and Pitt losing outright to UVA.
The starting RB was out for Ole Miss as well as one of the WRs and the Ole Miss/UGA under was a winner.
Misleading box scores. There were probably a few more that could have made this list, but these were the obvious ones
Miami - 23 pts, 436 yards, 6.9 ypp, -1 in turnovers
GT - 28pts, 370 yards, 5.8 ypp
UCF - 31 pts, 406 yds, 5.7 ypp, -1TO
ASU - 35 pts, 260 yds, 4.5 ypp
Stat that caught my eye - Ole Miss outgained UGA 397-245yds and 6.2-3.8ypp.
Miami - 23 pts, 436 yards, 6.9 ypp, -1 in turnovers
GT - 28pts, 370 yards, 5.8 ypp
UCF - 31 pts, 406 yds, 5.7 ypp, -1TO
ASU - 35 pts, 260 yds, 4.5 ypp
Stat that caught my eye - Ole Miss outgained UGA 397-245yds and 6.2-3.8ypp.
Latest posts
Get unlimited access today.