If I were making the coaching decision - this is what I would do...
- Thread starter dawgstudent
- Start date
I don't think you have to bump his pay by $3M. I think you can bump it to $3M with incentives. That's more than Beamer makes right now I believe.
And that lets him go get an OC with play calling experience, preferably prior head coaching experience, which I think he needs to do to get the job. Nothing against SPurrier or Mason, but I don't want a first time head coach and an OC that has never called plays before.
You don't want to low ball a coach but I find it hard to believe that a 4 year, $12M deal with incentives would be insulting to Arnette. He gets an early shot at a P5 head coaching gig and is still set for life if he fails.
I’m at a total loss on how to proceed with the search. There really are no good options. Its either take a huge risk on a coordinator while keeping the Air Raid, or go with a low ceiling “proven HC” retread like Mullen / Malzahn / Holgerson, many of whom would require a multiyear roster reset.
Only thing that seems to be definitive is that we don’t want a non-Air Raid OC as HC, because that’s the worst of both worlds. The “swing your sword” option is to take a risk on a Leach protege as OC or as OC/HC combo, so that’s what I’m for, whatever that means for Arnett.
Only thing that seems to be definitive is that we don’t want a non-Air Raid OC as HC, because that’s the worst of both worlds. The “swing your sword” option is to take a risk on a Leach protege as OC or as OC/HC combo, so that’s what I’m for, whatever that means for Arnett.
He is not the most beloved coach in the staff. People forget, he's never once called plays either and he's a 50 year old coach.
There are two signing days now. I am curious how many don't sign waiting until the next to see what happens. Anyways with the portal and 1100 football players in it, they can go find some guys.,
How often does promoting a coordinator from within work? First thing we have to do is hire an AD. Then he needs to hire the next coach. I think I'd make Todd Monken tell us no first, then go out and find the best coach with Leach connections or who runs an offense similar to the Air Raid and hire him, with the aim of keeping as many assistants (including Arnett) as possible.
How is hiring a Leach disciple with experience a risk at offensive coordinator?
The AD search won't be completed until the end of the month. We can't wait without losing our signing class. Every player on the team is also eligible to transfer out. Uncertainty is not what we need right now. It sucks all this is happening but it is what it is.
We were not concerned about him moving to a HC position, we were concerned about him moving to a DC position for more money somewhere else.
I want Arnett to be given a chance, but I don’t want him to be our Matt Luke. Our new AD will have to decide whether Arnett is ready to be a HC in the SEC.
Why hasn't anyone else come to knocking on the door from another school? I wasn't just referring to his current situation. Maybe they have and he just doesn't want to do it. I don't know but with his name and experience you would think he would have had an opportunity.
I'm not arguing against him. Just asking question.
This seems the correct take to me too. Go get Riley or Harrell as OC and rock on... do it quickly too, by the bowl game at least and keep recruiting pushing ahead as well..
Arnett is not Matt Luke. Tony Hughes would be Matt Luke. Arnett is a successful coordinator from a P5 school. We have 3 realistic types of canddiates, maybe 4 if the cards fall right: (1) G6 Head Coach. (2) P5 Coordinator from competitive conference. (3) Retread P5 Head Coach who is not currently working. (4) P5 head coach from bottom feeder P5 school or that is fed up with current school (rarely exists as a viable candidate; Leach was an exception and he wouldn't have been available except for his quirkiness).
Arnett is exactly the type of candidate we would normally look at, he's just a little younger and greener. I'm not one that thinks we should just hand him the job. We should do a coaching search. But I would not be shocked at all if he were the best candidate on the merits at the end of it. I think his plans for OC would make or break his candidacy. If he has a strong OC that he can bring in, I would think it's very likely he will get it. If he wants to promote Spurrier or Mason, I don't think that gets him the job unless we are just ending up with limited options.
I don’t pretend to have some secret inside source but what I do know from the perspective of ONE person who is part of the team (not a player) and who is near and dear to me is that it’s their opinion that most the players and staff support and respect Coach Arnett and would love to see him as HC. This is not saying they are actively pushing for him or that they wouldn’t be n favor of someone else. All I am saying is that from this one person’s perspective is that Arnett would have widespread support of the team and those around it.
You vet that question (offensive philosophy) in the interview. If he wants to go in a direction than the air raid then we go in a different direction for HC. It's as simple as that.
Hire his dad as OC***
This is a much different situation than Matt Luke. Worst case scenario is you fire Arnett after two years if it’s just an awful experience. No one will fault us for moving on early given the situation. Plenty will fault us for cleaning house on this staff. Also, delaying an official announcement on the coach is going to have a significant impact on our roster (current and recruits). I’m not down for a complete rebuild.
Do you think we would ever consider pursuing a figurehead HC and a Leach-disciple OC?
I’m thinking about Orgeron & Joe Brady at LSU a few years ago. We need an OC that can use our current roster to its full potential, and an HC who can be a figurehead and recruit. I’m not sure who that is, but it seems like that might work.
I’m thinking about Orgeron & Joe Brady at LSU a few years ago. We need an OC that can use our current roster to its full potential, and an HC who can be a figurehead and recruit. I’m not sure who that is, but it seems like that might work.
He might not be. Tbh imo Spurrier is probly more qualified to be a HC. Idk...I just eould like to see continuity and if next year is a disaster we can always find a HC and change everything
Who do you think does the majority of our recruiting ?? Spurrier
I’m having a hard time rationalizing any move other than naming Arnett the permanent head coach. And I do think he has upside and a lot of qualities you want to see in a young coach on the rise.
I think starting over with an outside hire right now would be kinda disrespectful to this group of players and coaches that have done a really good job for us and have been maneuvering through an incredibly difficult 2022 off the field. I am of the opinion that during a situation like this you have to keep your core together.
Now, in terms of an Arnett OC, I do think a Leach disciple like Littrell makes a lot of sense. I do wonder if there will be a push to promote from within with Spurrier or Miller. But also keep in mind that Leach was also our QB coach so there will be some reshuffling and at least one addition to the staff regardless.
I think starting over with an outside hire right now would be kinda disrespectful to this group of players and coaches that have done a really good job for us and have been maneuvering through an incredibly difficult 2022 off the field. I am of the opinion that during a situation like this you have to keep your core together.
Now, in terms of an Arnett OC, I do think a Leach disciple like Littrell makes a lot of sense. I do wonder if there will be a push to promote from within with Spurrier or Miller. But also keep in mind that Leach was also our QB coach so there will be some reshuffling and at least one addition to the staff regardless.
That's saying you value the Air Raid more than you value Arnett. I strongly disagree with that approach. If we take that stance, then we either have to have a DC who approves of the Air Raid or an Air Raid HC. Sorry, but if Arnett is your guy, then he gets to make the call on the offense.
USCe has the money to keep him if they want to, which I would assume they do. I mean, I guess it's possible his wife is dying to come home, but with how short head coaching tenures tend to be, I would not want to do that if I were her. If it goes badly and he is chased off, how is she going to feel coming home then?
I do think we should get Beamer a raise out of this. I think with the way he finished, a call to his agent gets him up to $4.5M pretty easy.
I meant that its a risk to hire any coordinator to HC, whether that’s a Leach disciple OC, Arnett to HC with a Leach disciple OC under him, or none of the above. You don’t know that they can effectively manage the whole program.
It's not about valuing the air raid more than Arnett, it's about looking at the hire holistically. Whoever we hire is going to be a risk. Coaching hires are just crap shoots. Adding a transition to an offense that would require us to flip our roster on that side of the ball just increases the risk. Would have to be head and shoulders above the other candidates to justify the extra risk.
Johnson tagged it correctly above: Arnett is right in the wheelhouse of a candidate we would normally consider. He's pretty much Moorhead without the stop at Fordham, but with SEC experience. Let's say we had a normal opening and Arnett was the DC at an 8-win Arkansas. Would you have him near the top of your list? Dang right you would.
Meanwhile, time is indeed of the essence. I get the David Murrays of the world saying one signing class isn't worth the risk of making the wrong hire, but I counter with several thoughts:
1. See Arnett's qualifications above
2. We totally changed offensive-style horses from Mullen to Moorhead and nearly lost 10 years of progress in only 2, so that should rule out any route where you dump the Air Raid. That alone makes a late December coaching search exponentially more difficult.
3. Yes, you can rebuild from the portal at most schools, but we went the NIL route of paying our developed players to stay. If you change staffs, you'll have a full class gap where you can't do that because you were only able to sign leftovers. Not only will 2023 suck, but you'll drastically handicap the new coach for a season somewhere around 2026. This is a new, uncharted era.
4. Speaking of new eras, something big is coming, and soon. If it's a super-conference realignment, do you really want the negotiations going on about membership while we've won 3-5 games for consecutive seasons while changing over from the Air Raid?
So, from my perspective, barring a bowl meltdown and assuming he'll take the job, you roll with Arnett and a 4-year contract, hire a Leach-tree OC, keep as much of the current staff as possible, and play 2023 for The Pirate. If things go awry, you'll be at least a year further along into whatever the future holds with (hopefully) better knowledge on what that looks like.
Meanwhile, time is indeed of the essence. I get the David Murrays of the world saying one signing class isn't worth the risk of making the wrong hire, but I counter with several thoughts:
1. See Arnett's qualifications above
2. We totally changed offensive-style horses from Mullen to Moorhead and nearly lost 10 years of progress in only 2, so that should rule out any route where you dump the Air Raid. That alone makes a late December coaching search exponentially more difficult.
3. Yes, you can rebuild from the portal at most schools, but we went the NIL route of paying our developed players to stay. If you change staffs, you'll have a full class gap where you can't do that because you were only able to sign leftovers. Not only will 2023 suck, but you'll drastically handicap the new coach for a season somewhere around 2026. This is a new, uncharted era.
4. Speaking of new eras, something big is coming, and soon. If it's a super-conference realignment, do you really want the negotiations going on about membership while we've won 3-5 games for consecutive seasons while changing over from the Air Raid?
So, from my perspective, barring a bowl meltdown and assuming he'll take the job, you roll with Arnett and a 4-year contract, hire a Leach-tree OC, keep as much of the current staff as possible, and play 2023 for The Pirate. If things go awry, you'll be at least a year further along into whatever the future holds with (hopefully) better knowledge on what that looks like.
Please understand we are not married to the Air Raid, Gus, Dan or any competent spread option coach could grab a couple of QBs and RBs from the portal and win 9 games next year. Most of our OL likely blocked in spread option offenses in HS, so they could easily pick up the schemes/techniques. One of the most important attributes should be getting a coach who is excited about the portal, NIL and recruiting, we haven't had that since JWS, he realized it was about the Jimmys and Joes.
This is just my opinion, but I do not understand the state fan that says we are stuck with this offense. Hearing some say well if we just suffer through this year we can get back to a power run offense. Why? Beyond disrespecting Leach why do we think we can compete as a power run team? We did that pretty much our entire football existence and got basically no where. I want to stick with the air raid now maybe we can up date it and bring in some one with a more modern version, but going back to beating our head into the wall of the SEC west with a power run scheme is not something I want to do.
Promote Arnett to HC and either let Spurrier run the offense or bring in a Leach disciple to do it.
Promote Arnett to HC and either let Spurrier run the offense or bring in a Leach disciple to do it.
You gotta bring in a new DC too, because Arnett can't be the head coach and the DC without it affecting some other aspect of the program.
Promoting Arnett leaves several coaching spots open, not just one. Arnett was coaching safeties and DC. Leach was coaching QBs along with being OC. We've got to backfill all those spots. And you don't give a young coach who's never been the head guy at any level and head coaching gig and expect him to also be a coordinator.
If Arnett says he wants to ditch the Air Raid as HC and we tell him "no thank you because we don't want to flip our offensive roster" then we are putting scheme over person. I agree we need to make the best hire, but we also have to be prepared that the best hire's vision may not fit the current roster. Holistically has to go beyond 1-2 seasons. With the portal you can remake your roster in a year, maybe two.
Not that our history is a good road map but we went from Mullen to JoMo to Leach. All different. This transition is probably the hardest because the Air Raid is so unique and Leach recruited specific kinds of OL to play in it.
This.
Change for the sake of change isn't typically a good idea.
We know the Air Raid can work.
Don't strive for perfection. After all, perfect is the enemy of good.
Leave the Interim tag on Arnett for a year, then throw the kitchen sink at Prime!!
If the person you think is the best hire doesn't fit the current situation, then he's really not the best hire.
Look elsewhere.
Perfect. He already has a place at Old Waverly that he splits with Dan Marino.
Exactly what I would do. It would be low risk for us and Arnett. If Arnett fails he will certainly be able to go back to a DC role afterward with someone. And we wouldn't be set back that long either.
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