Recession incoming

[WilCoDawg]

The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be. But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle: the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under...

www.belfercenter.org

"Since World War II, Democrats have seen job creationaverage 1.7 % per year when in office, versus 1.0 % under the GOP. US GDP has averaged a rate of growth of 4.23 percent per annum during Democratic administrations, versus 2.36 per cent under Republicans, a remarkable difference of 1.87 percentage points. This is postwar data, covering 19 presidential terms—from Truman through Biden. If one goes back further, to the Great Depression, to include Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, the difference in growth rates is even larger.

The results are similar regardless whether one assigns responsibility for the first quarter of a president’s term to him or to his predecessor. Relatedly, the average Democratic presidential term has been in recession for 1 of its 16 quarters, whereas the average for the Republican terms has been 5 quarters, a startlingly big difference."

"The last five recessions all started while a Republican was in the White House (Reagan. G.H.W. Bush, G.W. Bush twice, and Trump). Readers can check out the chronology for themselves. The odds of getting that outcome by chance, if the true probability of a recession starting during a Democrat’s presidency were equal to that during a Republican’s presidency, would be (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2), i.e., one out of 32 = 3.1%. Very unlikely. The same as the odds of getting “heads” on five out of five consecutive coin-flips. Such a rejection of equality is said to be “statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence.”

What if we go back further? A remarkable 9 of the last 10 recessions have started when a Republican was president. The odds that this outcome would have occurred just by chance are even more remote: one out of 100. [That is, 10/210 = 0.0098.]"

Care to breakdown that job growth into public sector vs private sector?

 

[ckDOG]

Maybe. But if that happens hopefully it won't be due to TDS Stress Levels of the Sixpack Minority. Do you think the mods will give us "Basket of Deplorables" some leeway for election night celebrations?

At this point the folks with TDS are the people that can't let him go and move on. He's an *** hole, not a savant. There's dozens of people that can be the Republican figurehead (hell, might even develop a national platform as well) and actually have a solid shot at winning national elections instead of him and his 45-47% ceiling.

 

[Boom Boom]

I just wish that there was a conservative running for President. We haven't had one for three straight elections now.

You have EXACTLY what you've been voting for decades for.

 

[ckDOG]

This shows how out of touch liberals are. White evangelical Christians only support Trump because that’s who the left is forcing them to choose. You’re really showing your ignorance by stating what you did. Yeah, he says things that conservatives like to hear. He hates the way things are done in Washington. He wants to fight the nonsense or so he says. He’s proud of America. But I don’t know a single conservative that likes the man or would want to have dinner with him. But that quite comical for a liberal to moan and whine about a politician’s character not being clean.

Maybe if Democrats didn’t put up choices that are either Beelzebub or Satan, Christians wouldn’t have to choose Trump.

But continue to prove the existence of TDS, guy.

Explain your primaries. I don't buy the "look what you made me do" angle. You have a choice.

Also...I'm a moderate not a liberal. Voted for republicans on my ballot 2 days ago, in fact.

 

[ckDOG]

Care to breakdown that job growth into public sector vs private sector?

Does the grocery store care if paycheck came from Uncle Sam or Walmart?

 

[mcdawg22]

Maybe. But if that happens hopefully it won't be due to TDS Stress Levels of the Sixpack Minority. Do you think the mods will give us "Basket of Deplorables" some leeway for election night celebrations?

See this is where you lose all credibility. 90% of this board is right of center and most of the mods are. Some of that 90% have disowned the Republican candidate because of his actions. Calling it TDS on this board is a little hollow. Would it be apropos on a UC Berkeley sports board? Absolutely. But doesn’t really fit here. I’m sure we will let discussions go long in November. But make no mistake, the majority of posters and mods here think Boom Boom and Glfr are idiots. But newsflash, we think you and your Trumpism crew are too. It’s not TDS. Its realism that the rest of the middle of us need to start steering the conversation that we can responsibly have vs you and the far left that derail it and somehow influence us to stop the reasonable dialogue because of tribalism.
Any Ole Miss is a bunch of cuntshits and State 17’ing rules. I miss Sesh.

 

[Boom Boom]

Earlier in the thread I mentioned that inflation is not the only cause of price spikes. But only government actions can increase or decrease currency values and that happens in commie AND Capitalist Countries.

A cursory knowledge of currency history would let you know that's not remotely true.

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

The fuse was lit by The Creature from Jeckyll Island and the debt & death bomb has been ticking down ever since. Fiat currencies have always failed throughout all of human history.

 

[ckDOG]

Executive orders by Biden (or really his handlers, if you know what I mean)

90-something EOs in his first 30 days in office.

Sounds dictatorial, doesn't it? Many of those EOs handcuffed energy companies

U.S. Presidents: number of executive orders signed 1789-2024 | Statista

An executive order is one of the most commonly used form of administrative action taken by the President of the United States.

www.statista.com

If we are going EO count for a dictator conclusion, let's advertise the recent presidents:

Biden - 46/yr
Trump - 55/yr
Obama - 35/yr
Bush 43 - 36/yr
Clinton - 46/yr
Bush 41 - 42/yr
Reagan - 48/yr

Looks like the man enamored with actual dictators played his EO card more than the others. Interesting.

 

[WilCoDawg]

Elon is a current face of big tech. He is massively influentiap and owns one or the most popular social platforms.
Him announcing support for Trump clearly supports my point. Your attempt to explain away Elon's support for Trump is odd.

You really are going to stick with “Elon slobbers Trump so all big tech does!”? I may not respect your opinions but you’re not that dumb.

Zuk's slobbing was in the context of saying 'I won't endorse a candidate. That's why the comment was funny to read and why it shows who he supports.

No. No it doesn’t. He clearly said he was impressed by how that situation was handled. Classic liberal putting words in someone’s mouth there.

I am not complaining about his appreciation for how Trump looked, so you don't need to try and turn it around on me. The reality is what I posted- one of the most wealthy and powerful heads of big tech is supporting the Republican candidate.

Your lack of understanding that Facebook pushed Conservative news during the late 10's thru their algorithm doesn't make it untrue. It happened. The fall of redirect traffic to Breitbart from Facebook is easily understood when data is presented.
Facebook, a massive social platform, actively pushed conservative angled news for years.
I know that's tough to swallow, since the narrative has always been that Facebook bans neonazi talk and silences the right, but both can be true.

Odd how I can’t find any mention of this conservative push by Facebook. All I can find is that they simply included in their news feed. I guess they were trying to cater to….some of their users. Wow. What a novel idea. The fact that Facebook is run by liberals pushing liberal ideology with their clear bias (ie “fact checks”) shows your claim is complete bs.

If you don't know who JD Vance has been financially supported by, that's on you to read about.

Why don’t you educate me? Thiel likes the guy. Vance was a tech vc. Not sure why that warrants yet another blanket claim. You do that’s not how logic works, right?
Thiel hearts Vance. Thiel is tech billionaire. This doesn’t mean big tech loves Vance.

My initial comment was questioning why white suburban women will be the ones to save democracy since in many states they largely didn't vote for Trump the last time around.
Why would they change this time, since he hassnt become more appealing?
That's an odd group to claim.

To this I guess I clearly misunderstood your claim. I thought you were saying those women were going to vote for Trump.

 

[ckDOG]

Any Ole Miss is a bunch of cuntshits and State 17’ing rules. I miss Sesh.

Great word. Lifting it, thanks.

 

[WilCoDawg]

Does the grocery store care if paycheck came from Uncle Sam or Walmart?

Dude, just take the loss. Don’t make claims that D presidents did a better job at job growth when all they did was create more government bureaucracy which doesn’t help anybody at all since it creates more mouths suckling from the gubment teet.

 

[ckDOG]

Dude, just take the loss. Don’t make claims that D presidents did a better job at job growth when all they did was create more government bureaucracy which doesn’t help anybody at all since it creates more mouths suckling from the gubment teet.

Where did I say anything about welfare? I said a paycheck is a paycheck if it's related to a job. You aren't making any sense here.

 

[WilCoDawg]

Explain your primaries. I don't buy the "look what you made me do" angle. You have a choice.

Also...I'm a moderate not a liberal. Voted for republicans on my ballot 2 days ago, in fact.

You’re so far from moderate. That’s obvious from your posting.
As far as the primaries, I don’t know. I actually was hoping for someone other than Trump. I guess all the attacks you liberals w TDS did on him made him attractive to many conservatives. “Woke liberals hate him so much so let’s put him back out there.” But again, maybe you liberals should put a candidate that is actually worthy and qualified up if you don’t want Trump. Hell, I’d take another Bill Clinton right now but he’d never be chosen by Democrats of today.

 

[Boom Boom]

It might make legislators do their job, or it might open up the opportunity for courts to rule on things they aren't experts in...since courts will now be the ones to interpret how Admin Depts should operate and what powers they do or don't have.

I doubt Congress will set specific policy in most instance and instead it will just be courts ruling on things they don't totally understand. Just more judicial activism that isn't seen as such by one side and seen as a travesty by the other side.

It will be nearly impossible for Congress to change everything Administrative Agencies have done that has been implicit to be explicit.
As such, courts will decide.


Why let an agency which is an expert in the issue set policy when Legislation is vague, if a random judge with perhaps no experience in the field or subject can instead set policy?

Totally absurd, but par for the course in 2024.

^this.

The hilarious wrinkle is I've seen some experts argue that it is not going to have the effect the far right thinks. Most regs are already tilted to Big Business pretty dang well already. The enviros and such are salivating to get their pet causes in front of a good judge to whack away at the Big Business friendly regs they don't like. The big swings the right thinks they will get will likely get reversed in Congress, while the lefties will be nickel and diming their way to victory.

 

[WilCoDawg]

Where did I say anything about welfare? I said a paycheck is a paycheck if it's related to a job. You aren't making any sense here.

Where did I mention welfare? If you don’t understand that a government job is paid for by tax dollars, that explains a lot.

 

[Boom Boom]

This shows how out of touch liberals are. White evangelical Christians only support Trump because that’s who the left is forcing them to choose. You’re really showing your ignorance by stating what you did. Yeah, he says things that conservatives like to hear. He hates the way things are done in Washington. He wants to fight the nonsense or so he says. He’s proud of America. But I don’t know a single conservative that likes the man or would want to have dinner with him. But that quite comical for a liberal to moan and whine about a politician’s character not being clean.

Maybe if Democrats didn’t put up choices that are either Beelzebub or Satan, Christians wouldn’t have to choose Trump.

But continue to prove the existence of TDS, guy.

You realize there was a primary, right?

 

[ckDOG]

You’re so far from moderate. That’s obvious from your posting.
As far as the primaries, I don’t know. I actually was hoping for someone other than Trump. I guess all the attacks you liberals w TDS did on him made him attractive to many conservatives. “Woke liberals hate him so much so let’s put him back out there.” But again, maybe you liberals should put a candidate that is actually worthy and qualified up if you don’t want Trump. Hell, I’d take another Bill Clinton right now but he’d never be chosen by Democrats of today.

My posting is very middle of the road. I make it a point to acknowledge our problems are from all political spectrum. You are labeling me a liberal bc you don't like what I'm saying and that's what your tribal instincts tell you do.

And what you've outlined above is a **** reason to vote for someone. You vote for a person bc it makes people you dislike mad? Thats not politics that's just trolling. Don't make me call you my new favorite word.

 

[WilCoDawg]

U.S. Presidents: number of executive orders signed 1789-2024 | Statista

An executive order is one of the most commonly used form of administrative action taken by the President of the United States.

www.statista.com

If we are going EO count for a dictator conclusion, let's advertise the recent presidents:

Biden - 46/yr
Trump - 55/yr
Obama - 35/yr
Bush 43 - 36/yr
Clinton - 46/yr
Bush 41 - 42/yr
Reagan - 48/yr

Looks like the man enamored with actual dictators played his EO card more than the others. Interesting.

For a little less tilted understanding

 

[WilCoDawg]

My posting is very middle of the road. I make it a point to acknowledge our problems are from all political spectrum. You are labeling me a liberal bc you don't like what I'm saying and that's what your tribal instincts tell you do.

And what you've outlined above is a **** reason to vote for someone. You vote for a person bc it makes people you dislike mad? Thats not politics that's just trolling. Don't make me call you my new favorite word.

I don’t gaf what you call me. I didn’t say I voted for him bc of that. You clearly lack reading comprehension. Go back to my post. Re-read it. Do it ten more times. Comes back and tell me where I said I voted for him bc of that. You can do it. I have faith in you.

And if you’re “middle of the road” the white line but be inches from the left side of the road. I’ve yet to see you post anything that resembles a conservative thought.

 

[WilCoDawg]

You realize there was a primary, right?

 

[ckDOG]

Where did I mention welfare? If you don’t understand that a government job is paid for by tax dollars, that explains a lot.

"Govment teet". That's welfare. My Wal-Mart vs Uncle Sam comment was a nod that government does actually provide legitimate services and those services require tax funding and...wait for it...jobs that people fill and get paid to do! Those jobs are just as good and honest as any private sector job and result in good and honest families and contributions to society. If you can't acknowledge that, that explains a lot.

Please don't tell me you are going down the road of all taxation is theft and all government is bad. Let me know now and I'll stop arguing with someone that doesn't live in reality.

 

[ckDOG]

I don’t gaf what you call me. I didn’t say I voted for him bc of that. You clearly lack reading comprehension. Go back to my post. Re-read it. Do it ten more times. Comes back and tell me where I said I voted for him bc of that. You can do it. I have faith in you.

And if you’re “middle of the road” the white line but be inches from the left side of the road. I’ve yet to see you post anything that resembles a conservative thought.

I apologize. "You" should have been the collective you. The collective you that you stated are voting for Trump to own the libs. That's trolling and a ****** reason to vote for anyone.

 

[WilCoDawg]

"Govment teet". That's welfare. My Wal-Mart vs Uncle Sam comment was a nod that government does actually provide legitimate services and those services require tax funding and...wait for it...jobs that people fill and get paid to do! Those jobs are just as good and honest as any private sector job and result in good and honest families and contributions to society. If you can't acknowledge that, that explains a lot.

Please don't tell me you are going down the road of all taxation is theft and all government is bad. Let me know now and I'll stop arguing with someone that doesn't live in reality.

The teet is being paid by the government. That’s what a government job is. Growing bureaucracy is NOT benefiting society. Are there gover jobs that are necessary? Of course. But to say growing every alphabet agency’s numbers benefit us is asinine. Surely you get that. I’ve dealt with enough agencies to know firsthand how they waste tax dollars as well as seeing how there are way too many people on the teet being paid that can’t justify their job. Good grief as how dense you’re being.

 

[WilCoDawg]

I apologize. "You" should have been the collective you. The collective you that you stated are voting for Trump to own the libs. That's trolling and a ****** reason to vote for anyone.

Don’t want Trump to be voted for? Tell your people to put up viable candidates and not ones that shouldn’t even be candidates for gas station attendant.

 

[ckDOG]

View attachment 621586

For a little less tilted understanding

I linked it for a reason. If your takeaway is "Joe Biden is dictatorial bc of his EO count" as Curby stated, then you are just making up stuff not based on reality. He's clearly not in context of both modern and distant history. Most people care about recent history - so I typed it out for those too lazy to examine the chart. But thanks for hammering in the point.

 

[ckDOG]

Don’t want Trump to be voted for? Tell your people to put up viable candidates and not ones that shouldn’t even be candidates for gas station attendant.

I voted for Haley in the primary. Who did you vote for?

 

[Pars]

LOL
You made him vote for Trump and he pisses off liberals so let’s get him back in
LOL

pathetic

 

[Anon1704414204]

A cursory knowledge of currency history would let you know that's not remotely true.

Perhaps you'd like to give us a Keynesian take on what happened to Germany's currency towards the end of WWI or Peru's in the early 80's.

 

[mstateglfr]

This shows how out of touch liberals are. White evangelical Christians only support Trump because that’s who the left is forcing them to choose. You’re really showing your ignorance by stating what you did. Yeah, he says things that conservatives like to hear. He hates the way things are done in Washington. He wants to fight the nonsense or so he says. He’s proud of America. But I don’t know a single conservative that likes the man or would want to have dinner with him. But that quite comical for a liberal to moan and whine about a politician’s character not being clean.

Maybe if Democrats didn’t put up choices that are either Beelzebub or Satan, Christians wouldn’t have to choose Trump.

But continue to prove the existence of TDS, guy.

Oh my gosh, I can't believe someone actually typed this.

The Left is FORCING the Evangelical Right to choose and vote for Trump?!
What the absolute 17 sort of clownass logic is that??


There was a long process where multiple candidates on the Right tried to become the Republican nominee.
The people who participated by voting for who they wanted as the Republican nominee for their state's overwhelmingly chose Trump.
It wasn't even close- Trump as the clear winner of the primaries.

Republicans chose Trump, so if any on the Evangelical Right want to place blame for Trump being the candidate, they van blame Republicans.


The thread has reached full clown mode.

 

[WilCoDawg]

I voted for Haley in the primary. Who did you vote for?

Your mom. Seriously.

 

[Boom Boom]

See this is where you lose all credibility. 90% of this board is right of center and most of the mods are. Some of that 90% have disowned the Republican candidate because of his actions. Calling it TDS on this board is a little hollow. Would it be apropos on a UC Berkeley sports board? Absolutely. But doesn’t really fit here. I’m sure we will let discussions go long in November. But make no mistake, the majority of posters and mods here think Boom Boom and Glfr are idiots. But newsflash, we think you and your Trumpism crew are too. It’s not TDS. Its realism that the rest of the middle of us need to start steering the conversation that we can responsibly have vs you and the far left that derail it and somehow influence us to stop the reasonable dialogue because of tribalism.
Any Ole Miss is a bunch of cuntshits and State 17’ing rules. I miss Sesh.

I take offense at this, but I'm used to false centrist bias so it's no big deal.

Why I think glfr and I are different, is we'll acknowledge whatever point the other side makes. We are always willing and ready to be proved wrong. So, a proposal. When a thread gets locked, point out who derailed it. I really don't think it's me, and if it is I'll change how I post.

Also, I guarantee you it's not tribalism. I hate the Dems and wish I didn't have to hold my nose and vote for them. My positions are just where logic has led me. I hold no allegiance to anything other than logic and reasoning, and will abandon any position the second it appears logic leads to another.

 

[WilCoDawg]

LOL
You made him vote for Trump and he pisses off liberals so let’s get him back in
LOL

pathetic

“I’m voting for Kamala bc she’s not Trump!”
Pathetic.
Did I do that right?

 

[WilCoDawg]

Oh my gosh, I can't believe someone actually typed this.

The Left is FORCING the Evangelical Right to choose and vote for Trump?!
What the absolute 17 sort of clownass logic is that??


There was a long process where multiple candidates on the Right tried to become the Republican nominee.
The people who participated by voting for who they wanted as the Republican nominee for their state's overwhelmingly chose Trump.
It wasn't even close- Trump as the clear winner of the primaries.

Republicans chose Trump, so if any on the Evangelical Right want to place blame for Trump being the candidate, they van blame Republicans.


The thread has reached full clown mode.

Those that didn’t vote for him in the primaries and are forced to choose between him and whatever person with a (sometimes noticeable) pulse? Yeah, Democrats put that group between a rock and a hard place in the general election.

It‘s weird that you don’t understand that but it’s all making sense now.

 

[Pars]

Sad
I pity your devotion to the carnival barker

 

[WilCoDawg]

Sad
I pity your devotion to the carnival barker

I have no devotion to him. Just bc I’d rather Trump than someone who will clearly continue this country in the direction of “men can be women” and da stuff like that? That thar is devotion to my country, not a man.

 

[ckDOG]

The teet is being paid by the government. That’s what a government job is. Growing bureaucracy is NOT benefiting society. Are there gover jobs that are necessary? Of course. But to say growing every alphabet agency’s numbers benefit us is asinine. Surely you get that. I’ve dealt with enough agencies to know firsthand how they waste tax dollars as well as seeing how there are way too many people on the teet being paid that can’t justify their job. Good grief as how dense you’re being.

Nuance! You have started arguing like an adult now. And I agree there. Not all government spending is inherently good, efficient, and necessary. Your initial insinuation was that public jobs don't count or should be discounted. They should be counted just as they do when Republican admins benefit from counting those jobs/wages as well. Now if you want to argue that certain services are better managed privately or the service isn't valuable at all - I'm all ears. There's plenty of that to argue.

 

[ckDOG]

Your mom. Seriously.

Trump it was then. Sorry that I made you do that.

 

[Boom Boom]

Perhaps you'd like to give us a Keynesian take on what happened to Germany's currency towards the end of WWI or Peru's in the early 80's.

Why? That literally would not be relevant no matter what happened there. You claimed its ALWAYS a result of government. Providing examples of when it may be due to government does not prove your point. What proves or disproves it is if there is a single counter example. And theres plenty. Right?

 

[ckDOG]

Those that didn’t vote for him in the primaries and are forced to choose between him and whatever person with a (sometimes noticeable) pulse? Yeah, Democrats put that group between a rock and a hard place in the general election.

It‘s weird that you don’t understand that but it’s all making sense now.

"I didn't care enough to vote in the Republican primary and now I have a ****** Republican choice that I don't want vote for. 17ing Democrats!"