Recession incoming

[mstateglfr]

There’s an easy way to prove media bias one way or another. Just show me the positive Trump stories from major networks other than Fox. Surely since they are independent and he received the second most votes of any candidate in history, it will be simple to link to some positive stories from CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc. I can provide plenty of links for bad stories. Just give me a couple good ones. I mean after all, since they are independent and not biased, those links should be easy to provide.

I do not seek out political news articles, so I am going to pass on your challenge. With that said, I will absolutely agree that there are fewer positive light articles about Trump by major news outlets, compared to negative or critical articles.

With that said, I genuinely believe that the almost total lack of major news outlet articles that criticize his daily speeches, comments, accusations, claims, and threats over the past 12 months of campaigning is, in effect, positive news coverage for him.
Legitimately- lack of coverage that criticizes is effectively positive for him.

^ the lack of campaign speech coverage and criticism is a narrative that I have heard many times now on election coverage podcasts. It is not my personal first hand observation.

 

[mstateglfr]

Sadly, this is the best thing from Twitter that have posted to SPS in months!
All it took was you constantly watching videos until you found one where a guy's dick is so big it keeps him from clearing the bar.


Good work tbay, good work. I won't even read further into the video choice. Nope.

 

[pseudonym]

I'm not worried about inflation. Our next president has a plan:

 

[L4Dawg]

I get your point but I disagree. Nowhere in our history has the media been where they are now. It’s all opinion and partisan, nothing close to fair and unbiased reporting.

I suggest you go back and look at newspapers from the first half of the 19th century. It's been worse.

 

[L4Dawg]

I just wish that there was a conservative running for President. We haven't had one for three straight elections now.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I think it's safe to say nobody's changing anybody's mind. I am damn glad football starts at the end of the month.

 

[ckDOG]

White suburban women are the reason we’re stuck with Biden. They vote with their feelings instead of reality.

And white evangelical Christians are why we are stuck with Trump. Conservative family values and personal character and responsibility mattered - until they didn't. If they voted for President with the same character expectations they have for their neighbors, he'd have been dumped long ago. Instead, they bought into the "persecuted billionaire" narrative and applied it to their own made up persecution story and created themselves a modern day savior.

 

[ckDOG]

Democrat leadership and recessions seem to go hand in hand

The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be. But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle: the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under...

www.belfercenter.org

"Since World War II, Democrats have seen job creationaverage 1.7 % per year when in office, versus 1.0 % under the GOP. US GDP has averaged a rate of growth of 4.23 percent per annum during Democratic administrations, versus 2.36 per cent under Republicans, a remarkable difference of 1.87 percentage points. This is postwar data, covering 19 presidential terms—from Truman through Biden. If one goes back further, to the Great Depression, to include Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, the difference in growth rates is even larger.

The results are similar regardless whether one assigns responsibility for the first quarter of a president’s term to him or to his predecessor. Relatedly, the average Democratic presidential term has been in recession for 1 of its 16 quarters, whereas the average for the Republican terms has been 5 quarters, a startlingly big difference."

"The last five recessions all started while a Republican was in the White House (Reagan. G.H.W. Bush, G.W. Bush twice, and Trump). Readers can check out the chronology for themselves. The odds of getting that outcome by chance, if the true probability of a recession starting during a Democrat’s presidency were equal to that during a Republican’s presidency, would be (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2)(1/2), i.e., one out of 32 = 3.1%. Very unlikely. The same as the odds of getting “heads” on five out of five consecutive coin-flips. Such a rejection of equality is said to be “statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence.”

What if we go back further? A remarkable 9 of the last 10 recessions have started when a Republican was president. The odds that this outcome would have occurred just by chance are even more remote: one out of 100. [That is, 10/210 = 0.0098.]"

 

[tbaydog]

I think it's safe to say nobody's changing anybody's mind. I am damn glad football starts at the end of the month.

Just wish Soy Boy would realize!

 

[Anon1704414204]

Economy grew under Clinton.
Economy recovered and grew under Obama.

Who are you thinking of?

Clinton had the benefit of riding the economic wave created by The Reagan Revolution. BC did nothing of significance policy wise compared to Ronaldus Magnus.

Obama inherited the housing and banking collapse that had scared markets into over reacting in a negative way initially. Everybody pulled out.except me resulting in 2 decades of child support payments but Obama benefitted from the markets self adjusting from the initial shock.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

Here's a secret: The president doesn't control the economy. Rate cuts have been expected in September for several months now too. Nothing to see here really. There will always be ups and downs with the economy. My general guide is about every 5 years but Covid jacked up stuff so it's just starting to come around now. Go back to your political ***** fest.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

@mstateglfr to be fair, Musk has kinda backtracked on that Trump support.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I think you downplayed the importance of "In Moderation" and overplayed capitalism's connection. What disagreements do you have with this shorter 3 min clip?

What disagreements do I have with the statement of “only the government causes inflation”? How much time do you have?

For starters, unless every single business in the United States has the stated and executed goal of 0% profit growth, year over year, EVERY year, there is simply no way for it to be a true statement that “only the government causes inflation”. Inflation, at its most basic definition, is the increase in prices of goods and services over time. Any time a business increases the price of anything, for any reason, no matter how small the increase is, they are contributing to inflation. And you know what? That’s not always a bad thing.

The goal of a business is to maximize profit, and, in most cases, grow its profits each year. If you are a laissez faire capatilist, that’s what allows wage growth and quality of life improvements for everyone….the competition, ingenuity, and the continuous improvement being driven all the time by the American spirit, and feeding itself. That cannot possibly exist in an environment where both the private sector and individual consumers are not contributing to inflation.

 

[thatsbaseball]

And white evangelical Christians are why we are stuck with Trump. Conservative family values and personal character and responsibility mattered - until they didn't. If they voted for President with the same character expectations they have for their neighbors, he'd have been dumped long ago. Instead, they bought into the "persecuted billionaire" narrative and applied it to their own made up persecution story and created themselves a modern day savior.

LOL and the Dems rolling out an absolutely pathetic candidate in Hillary Clinton had nothing to do with it ? The truth of the matter is the one two punch of Obama / Clinton gave us Trump. Trump's inability to act even remotely presidential gave us Biden and one two punch of Biden / Harris will give him a chance of being president again . We are in a situation where the majority of votes in our Presidential elections are no longer being cast for a candidate but against the perceived lesser of two evils . We are all at fault and we are all paying for it.

 

[ckDOG]

Here's a secret: The president doesn't control the economy. Rate cuts have been expected in September for several months now too. Nothing to see here really. There will always be ups and downs with the economy. My general guide is about every 5 years but Covid jacked up stuff so it's just starting to come around now. Go back to your political ***** fest.

We've made the executive into something it really shouldn't be - for a bunch of reasons. The presidency really should be uninteresting to the general public outside of war, foreign relations, and an occasional veto.

Im sure we could argue all day and point to several presidencies over decades as to why - but I think most would agree the executive has had mission creep (either by taking or from others relinquishing) and does too much and Congress does too little (aside from finding the nearest 24/7 cable news camera) from context of how this country was initially designed.

 

[mcdawg22]

I think it's safe to say nobody's changing anybody's mind. I am damn glad football starts at the end of the month.

Amazing how that works. Conversations with people I know on other sides of center tend to be fruitful and gives me perspective. It’s like anonymity on a message board makes people completely disregard other people’s perspective on something that is an ingrained belief.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Amazing how that works. Conversations with people I know on other sides of center tend to be fruitful and gives me perspective. It’s like anonymity on a message board makes people completely disregard other people’s perspective on something that is an ingrained belief.

That would be great, except this is supposed to be a sports board, not a political board. We have topics to take over during down periods, but football is about to start. You wouldn't know it by looking at this page. I'm as guilty as everybody else but I don't see anyone else saying stop arguing with the mirror.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

We've made the executive into something it really shouldn't be - for a bunch of reasons. The presidency really should be uninteresting to the general public outside of war, foreign relations, and an occasional veto.

Im sure we could argue all day and point to several presidencies over decades as to why - but I think most would agree the executive has had mission creep (either by taking or from others relinquishing) and does too much and Congress does too little (aside from finding the nearest 24/7 cable news camera) from context of how this country was initially designed.

The Supreme Court overturning Chevron deference just took some teeth out of the executive branch. I can’t believe no one on here brought that up when it happened.

The problem it’s going make the legislative branch actually do their job but with how bad that shít show has been lately I’m not so sure they can do it.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

That would be great, except this is supposed to be a sports board, not a political board. We have topics to take over during down periods, but football is about to start. You wouldn't know it by looking at this page. I'm as guilty as everybody else but I don't see anyone else saying stop arguing with the mirror.

When football season gets here they’re getting swiftly locked.

 

[ckDOG]

LOL and the Dems rolling out an absolutely pathetic candidate in Hillary Clinton had nothing to do with it ? The truth of the matter is the one two punch of Obama / Clinton gave us Trump. Trump's inability to act even remotely presidential gave us Biden and one two punch of Biden / Harris will give him a chance of being president again . We are in a situation where the majority of votes in our Presidential elections are no longer being cast for a candidate but against the perceived lesser of two evils . We are all at fault and we are all paying for it.

Yes - giant douche v turd sammich seems to be an evergreen scenario now.

But guy wouldn't have been the nominee in 2016 or 2024 had they voted with character and actual conservatism in mind. They are buying the persecuted fighter image in spite of character/policy that doesn't align with traditional conservative values.

 

[thatsbaseball]

" the executive has had mission creep (either by taking or from others relinquishing) and does too much and Congress does too little"

BOOM. The overuse/abuse of "executive orders" badly needs to be reigned in somehow IMO.

 

[mcdawg22]

Here's a secret: The president doesn't control the economy. Rate cuts have been expected in September for several months now too. Nothing to see here really. There will always be ups and downs with the economy. My general guide is about every 5 years but Covid jacked up stuff so it's just starting to come around now. Go back to your political ***** fest.

Shhhh!! Don’t tell them that. As long as the poors keep fighting amongst themselves they’ll never figure out that consumers drive the economy with personal responsibility and spending choices. As long as we can keep it up the rich will get richer by conservative top bracket tax cuts and bigger government pushed by the left to enrich high level govt officials.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

" the executive has had mission creep (either by taking or from others relinquishing) and does too much and Congress does too little"

BOOM. The use/abuse of "executive orders" badly needs to be reigned in somehow IMO.

See my post above about Chevron deference ruling. Executive branch got its legs knocked out from under it.

 

[CoastTrash]

Everyone arguing about POTUS when the majority of Mississippi state legislators ran unopposed in 2023

 

[Curby]

Here's a secret: The president doesn't control the economy. Rate cuts have been expected in September for several months now too. Nothing to see here really. There will always be ups and downs with the economy. My general guide is about every 5 years but Covid jacked up stuff so it's just starting to come around now. Go back to your political ***** fest.

So Biden's assault on the energy sector doesn't have a negative effect on the economy? LOL

Here's something that shouldn't be a secret. High operational and fuel costs for companies causes EVERYTHING to cost more. Our pocketbooks have been ravaged for 4 years as a result.

 

[Anon1704414204]

What disagreements do I have with the statement of “only the government causes inflation”? How much time do you have?

For starters, unless every single business in the United States has the stated and executed goal of 0% profit growth, year over year, EVERY year, there is simply no way for it to be a true statement that “only the government causes inflation”. Inflation, at its most basic definition, is the increase in prices of goods and services over time. Any time a business increases the price of anything, for any reason, no matter how small the increase is, they are contributing to inflation. And you know what? That’s not always a bad thing.

The goal of a business is to maximize profit, and, in most cases, grow its profits each year. If you are a laissez faire capatilist, that’s what allows wage growth and quality of life improvements for everyone….the competition, ingenuity, and the continuous improvement being driven all the time by the American spirit, and feeding itself. That cannot possibly exist in an environment where both the private sector and individual consumers are not contributing to inflation.

Earlier in the thread I mentioned that inflation is not the only cause of price spikes. But only government actions can increase or decrease currency values and that happens in commie AND Capitalist Countries.

 

[ckDOG]

The Supreme Court overturning Chevron deference just took some teeth out of the executive branch. I can’t believe no one on here brought that up when it happened.

The problem it’s going make the legislative branch actually do their job but with how bad that shít show has been lately I’m not so sure they can do it.

Yeah it didn't get much attention. Maybe 1 thread.

I have mixed feelings and am looking forward forward to seeing how it plays out in reality. I like the principle of it. The executive should be just that - executor of what is legislated. So a power shift from execute to congress is great with me provided we elect a serious Congress. But 1) can Congress be specific enough in their legislating in a modern world to make this work realistically and 2) can THIS congress and the characters we send actually make it happen assuming 1 is possible.

Executive needs a little wiggle room in interpretation when law is vague and making things happen but shouldn't overstep and de facto make law/policy. Im sure there will be a period of frustration and inefficiency while as the courts better establish the lines between those things. That should be expected. My fear is that Congress does as little as possible and throws a wrench in the gears (bc petty politics) and the system gets overwhelmed with legal actions made not from good faith. There has to be some middle ground that allows the executive to operate efficiently and not make law but also not tie up every small dispute in court for years and effectively making the judicial a replacement executive office.

 

[ckDOG]

So Biden's assault on the energy sector doesn't have a negative effect on the economy? LOL

Here's something that shouldn't be a secret. High operational and fuel costs for companies causes EVERYTHING to cost more. Our pocketbooks have been ravaged for 4 years as a result.

It must have an impact but probably not as much as some would lead us to believe given we are at record levels of energy production. I know I know - everything bad under a Dem would have been good under a Republican and everything good would have been better. And vice versa.

 

[mstateglfr]

@mstateglfr to be fair, Musk has kinda backtracked on that Trump support.

Good to know. I don't follow him closely, or really at all, so updates are slow to reach me.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

Correct. People struggle to process the fact that multiple things can be true:

1) Inflation is down (as measured by CPI, the same thing that was used to follow it when it went up)
2) The Fed typically would have cut rates based on inflation goals and CPI but they failed to do so. That's a puzzle.
3) The cost of food (and other things) is still high and putting a lot of stress on people.
4) Most of this stress is because, for the first time in my adult life, wage stagnation is truly being felt by the middle class. We are used to not caring about a living wage for the working poor because it largely hasn't had an impact on our lives.

Even still, the most prevalent question you will see asked is not what it should be "What can we do to fix it?", rather, "Who can I blame for this?" and the general population is perfectly content to yield to their party's power structure and say its those other guys...

Feds didn't cut because we kept adding 200K jobs each reporting cycle. The job numbers wouldn't unstick, so Powell kept his powder dry. He got exactly what he wanted yesterday, in weaker job numbers and flat price increases. This is as soft a landing as he could have hoped for.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Yeah that sidelined my pole vaulting career as well.

 

[thatsbaseball]

When football season gets here they’re getting swiftly locked.

I think I can speak for the whole group when I say switching from pretending we know something about politics to pretending we know something about football will be a refreshing change. **

 

[mstateglfr]

Clinton had the benefit of riding the economic wave created by The Reagan Revolution. BC did nothing of significance policy wise compared to Ronaldus Magnus.

Obama inherited the housing and banking collapse that had scared markets into over reacting in a negative way initially. Everybody pulled out.except me resulting in 2 decades of child support payments but Obama benefitted from the markets self adjusting from the initial shock.

So here is the deal-
- A post was made that claimed markets don't do well under Democrat leadership.
- I cited the 2 prior Democrat Presidents who had 16 years of leadership and markets did well. These are 2 of the last 4 presidents who were in power for 16 of the prior 28 years.
- You then respond and attempt to explain away and minimize my point, while never actually saying my point is wrong.



My point was correct and therefore the post I responded to was dumb.
Despite your attempts to minimize and excuse away market and economic success I under the two recent Democrat Presidents, my comment was correct and the success was real.

Of course there is a story to tell for every instance of success or failure. And of course the prior president's actions and policies impact the economy and markets under the next president.
It's bonkers that you and others can see this and make excuses when it puts Democrat Presidents in a good light, but can't see it when it puts a Republican President in a good light or puts a Democrat President in a bad light.

Selective context is pathetic. Apply it to all situations.

- Obama inherited a shistorm from W Bush, which was caused by legislative policy more than W Bush specifically. Markets and economy recovered and grew under Obama.
- Trump inherited a recovered market and it grew well under him for a number of outside reasons.
- Biden inherited a pending shitstorm due to covid fiscal decisions and interest rates staying too low for too long, neither of which are really Trump's fault...they are just reality of the situation. Markets have continued to do well while inflation has been felt by a lot of consumers.


^ there ya go- that's reality. In each instance, outside forces impacted reality more than specific presidential policy.

But to hit on it again- my prior comment was correct and the other poster's comment was dumb.

 

[Anon1704414204]

When football season gets here they’re getting swiftly locked.

Maybe. But if that happens hopefully it won't be due to TDS Stress Levels of the Sixpack Minority. Do you think the mods will give us "Basket of Deplorables" some leeway for election night celebrations?

 

[mcdawg22]

That would be great, except this is supposed to be a sports board, not a political board. We have topics to take over during down periods, but football is about to start. You wouldn't know it by looking at this page. I'm as guilty as everybody else but I don't see anyone else saying stop arguing with the mirror.

Honestly, I enjoy the conversation with the caveat of talking about actual economics and geopolitics. I love it when people who know more than me chime in. I remember during the Keystone XL thing, a guy who admittedly was a conservative with a decent background in PE, explained why it made no sense for XL to be a political point for US energy costs realistically because of dirty tar sand oil that was sold overseas. He pointed out that another pipeline would be way more impactful for the US. Unfortunately the cuntshits left and right of us with agendas derail it.

 

[mcdawg22]

So Biden's assault on the energy sector doesn't have a negative effect on the economy? LOL

Here's something that shouldn't be a secret. High operational and fuel costs for companies causes EVERYTHING to cost more. Our pocketbooks have been ravaged for 4 years as a result.

Okay. Let’s take out the talking points. What Mathematically. See that it’s numbers which are not a Hannity talking point. Mathematically gives you an indication that there is a war on oil is a thing?

 

[mstateglfr]

The Supreme Court overturning Chevron deference just took some teeth out of the executive branch. I can’t believe no one on here brought that up when it happened.

The problem it’s going make the legislative branch actually do their job but with how bad that shít show has been lately I’m not so sure they can do it.

It might make legislators do their job, or it might open up the opportunity for courts to rule on things they aren't experts in...since courts will now be the ones to interpret how Admin Depts should operate and what powers they do or don't have.

I doubt Congress will set specific policy in most instance and instead it will just be courts ruling on things they don't totally understand. Just more judicial activism that isn't seen as such by one side and seen as a travesty by the other side.

It will be nearly impossible for Congress to change everything Administrative Agencies have done that has been implicit to be explicit.
As such, courts will decide.


Why let an agency which is an expert in the issue set policy when Legislation is vague, if a random judge with perhaps no experience in the field or subject can instead set policy?

Totally absurd, but par for the course in 2024.

 

[mstateglfr]

That would be great, except this is supposed to be a sports board, not a political board. We have topics to take over during down periods, but football is about to start. You wouldn't know it by looking at this page. I'm as guilty as everybody else but I don't see anyone else saying stop arguing with the mirror.

For 3+ months, it seems like in a majority of football threads have nearly half the responses are some version of 'college football is ruined and I don't care as much as I used to'.

Seems like it's tough for many to really care that football is coming soon.
Hopefully thst changes once it actually comes.

 

[WilCoDawg]

And white evangelical Christians are why we are stuck with Trump. Conservative family values and personal character and responsibility mattered - until they didn't. If they voted for President with the same character expectations they have for their neighbors, he'd have been dumped long ago. Instead, they bought into the "persecuted billionaire" narrative and applied it to their own made up persecution story and created themselves a modern day savior.

This shows how out of touch liberals are. White evangelical Christians only support Trump because that’s who the left is forcing them to choose. You’re really showing your ignorance by stating what you did. Yeah, he says things that conservatives like to hear. He hates the way things are done in Washington. He wants to fight the nonsense or so he says. He’s proud of America. But I don’t know a single conservative that likes the man or would want to have dinner with him. But that quite comical for a liberal to moan and whine about a politician’s character not being clean.

Maybe if Democrats didn’t put up choices that are either Beelzebub or Satan, Christians wouldn’t have to choose Trump.

But continue to prove the existence of TDS, guy.

 

[Curby]

Okay. Let’s take out the talking points. What Mathematically. See that it’s numbers which are not a Hannity talking point. Mathematically gives you an indication that there is a war on oil is a thing?

Executive orders by Biden (or really his handlers, if you know what I mean)

90-something EOs in his first 30 days in office.

Sounds dictatorial, doesn't it? Many of those EOs handcuffed energy companies