Sitting at 6-4 with 7-4 pretty much a lock, we should find ourselves back in the CFP Top 25 this week or next (an Arkansas loss to LSU would help that). With four ranked wins, we deserve to be ranked. I'm not sure we can climb high enough to get Sugar consideration, but its technically possible.
Let's look at what it would take to get to the Citrus Bowl. We've never been to the Citrus Bowl, and it will feature one of the current top 10 Big Ten teams as an opponent. Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State will drop to the Citrus while the other two make the New Years 6.
First, let's look at tonight. Texas A&M is currently in Sugar Bowl position. If Alabama were to lose to Georgia or Auburn, they would still be in New Years 6 position so 2 to the playoff doesn't matter. You need three teams to the New Years 6 - best scenario is that those three teams are Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M. We'll also consider that Alabama beats Arkansas next week as well.
The Citrus Bowl gets the next team.
The candidates would be:
Mississippi State at 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
Ole Miss at 8-4 (4-4)
Auburn at 7-5 (4-4)
Arkansas at 8-4 (4-4) or 7-5 (3-5) if they lose to LSU tonight
Kentucky at 9-3 (5-3) or 8-4 (9-3) if they lose to Louisville to end the season
So we would certainly be in the hunt, and you could make the argument that we would be the best team available. But just to make certain, it would help if Arkansas dropped a game to LSU or Missouri. Kentucky losing to Louisville would be insurance, but I think we'd get the bid over them regardless.
The four teams not selected to the Citrus would join what appears to be Tennessee and Florida in the second tier bowl games that the SEC places. If we drop here, I expect that we will end up in Houston or Memphis.
South Carolina is playing for Birmingham right now. Missouri is playing for another shot at Birmingham if they beat Arkansas.
If you want to chase the Sugar Bowl dream - I think this is the output we need
Arkansas loss to LSU tonight
Ole Miss win over Texas A&M
Ole Miss loss to Vanderbilt OR State to be ranked #21 or higher headed into Egg Bowl.
Big State win over Ole Miss
Texas A&M loss to LSU
Alabama win over Georgia, both teams to playoff
Let's look at what it would take to get to the Citrus Bowl. We've never been to the Citrus Bowl, and it will feature one of the current top 10 Big Ten teams as an opponent. Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State will drop to the Citrus while the other two make the New Years 6.
First, let's look at tonight. Texas A&M is currently in Sugar Bowl position. If Alabama were to lose to Georgia or Auburn, they would still be in New Years 6 position so 2 to the playoff doesn't matter. You need three teams to the New Years 6 - best scenario is that those three teams are Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M. We'll also consider that Alabama beats Arkansas next week as well.
The Citrus Bowl gets the next team.
The candidates would be:
Mississippi State at 8-4 (5-3 SEC)
Ole Miss at 8-4 (4-4)
Auburn at 7-5 (4-4)
Arkansas at 8-4 (4-4) or 7-5 (3-5) if they lose to LSU tonight
Kentucky at 9-3 (5-3) or 8-4 (9-3) if they lose to Louisville to end the season
So we would certainly be in the hunt, and you could make the argument that we would be the best team available. But just to make certain, it would help if Arkansas dropped a game to LSU or Missouri. Kentucky losing to Louisville would be insurance, but I think we'd get the bid over them regardless.
The four teams not selected to the Citrus would join what appears to be Tennessee and Florida in the second tier bowl games that the SEC places. If we drop here, I expect that we will end up in Houston or Memphis.
South Carolina is playing for Birmingham right now. Missouri is playing for another shot at Birmingham if they beat Arkansas.
If you want to chase the Sugar Bowl dream - I think this is the output we need
Arkansas loss to LSU tonight
Ole Miss win over Texas A&M
Ole Miss loss to Vanderbilt OR State to be ranked #21 or higher headed into Egg Bowl.
Big State win over Ole Miss
Texas A&M loss to LSU
Alabama win over Georgia, both teams to playoff
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