The Phillies just aren’t in the same league as the Mets, Braves, or Dodgers this year. There is no shame in that.
2022 Phillies Thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
My thoughts exactly. The Phillies are trying to get over the playoff hump for the first time in over a decade. Nobody should expect them to be a true contender this year.
You can look at it in many ways:
Half full: a few bloop hits in one inning today were pretty much the only difference between the Phils and the Mets offensively this series
Half empty: the Phils scored 2 runs in the Mets series, and were shutout 2 times.
Half full: The Phils did so without their 2 best hitters (Harper on the DL, and Schwarber with only 1 AB as a PH)
Half empty: the Phils had multiple scoring opportunities in the series, and were atrocious at getting hits with men in scoring position
Half full: Nola was spectacular, and Suarez (their #3 pitcher) was every bit as good, if not better, than Scherzer
Half empty: Wheeler is the Phils 1B or 1A starter, and while almost all of the hits the Mets got against him were bloops, he gave up 6 runs in his biggest game of the season
etc., etc.
I said earlier in this thread that the outcome of this series wasn't all that important to the Phils. And after watching all 3 games, I think my earlier statement was correct.
I played with painter the summer before our senior year and knew he was going to be a star as soon as I saw him. It was an easy 95-98 with 3 other pitches he could throw for strikes whenever he wanted. Very humble kid as well so easy to root for
I find it interesting how the Mets went about their offseason and trade deadline. They let a bunch of guys walk who had good histories of success, very little to no effort to retain them and moved their philosophy pretty much totally opposite of any modern analytics that most teams use. They brought in guys who work counts and put the ball in play. Really emphasized a better 2 strike approach, using the whole field and hitting with 2 strikes where modern analytics is cool with power, exit velocity and striking out, they have taken the opposite angle.
You hear so much about exit velocity and luck but just in the past 3 weeks they have scored 5+ on Joe Musgrove, Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, Pablo Lopez, Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Zach Wheeler. They have done it all year but that is some pretty hefty competition right there that they have scored plenty of runs against. I almost feel like they are tough to deal with because everyone is using heavy analytics on defense and pitching and they don’t really really fit any mold. For example Pete Alonso in RBI spots is just trying to find a hole, especially when behind in the count. He is still gonna hit 40 home runs but he is much more worried about getting the runs home, thus as we saw a lot of weak pop ups in tough spots to field because you put your outfielders deep to defend the guys power. Thus he has 97 RBIs. Francisco Lindor is doing exactly the same thing, he gets RBI chances and he finds the holes.
You hear so much about exit velocity and luck but just in the past 3 weeks they have scored 5+ on Joe Musgrove, Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, Pablo Lopez, Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Zach Wheeler. They have done it all year but that is some pretty hefty competition right there that they have scored plenty of runs against. I almost feel like they are tough to deal with because everyone is using heavy analytics on defense and pitching and they don’t really really fit any mold. For example Pete Alonso in RBI spots is just trying to find a hole, especially when behind in the count. He is still gonna hit 40 home runs but he is much more worried about getting the runs home, thus as we saw a lot of weak pop ups in tough spots to field because you put your outfielders deep to defend the guys power. Thus he has 97 RBIs. Francisco Lindor is doing exactly the same thing, he gets RBI chances and he finds the holes.
They were smart with how they made their roster. They have a huge outfield, so it makes it more inducsive to having guys that can make contact with less raw power. They also went out and got 2 of the best defenders for their outfield(Canha/Marte). They put more balls into play in the outfield than their opponents and they cover more ground which is a recipe for success especially in a big ball park. There’s many advanced stats besides exit velo that like the Mets. However in general better exit velocities produce better results, the top three teams in hard hit rate which are balls 95+ are Toronto, Atlanta, and the Yankees. Three really good offenses.
Agree with all you wrote. When it is all said and done, starting pitching is close enough between the 2 teams, obviously the Mets have better starting pitching because of deGrom who lives on another planet but Phillies are no slouch. The biggest difference I see in the 2 teams when totally healthy, Mets outfield of Nimmo, Cahna and Marte is so far superior defensively to Kyle, Nick and Marsh and Marsh is a hell of a center fielder. Those corner spots will cost the Phillies runs with not only poor angles at times but lack of range and lack of arm strength
The Phillies have 3 runs on 28 hits in their last 3.3 games. Probably some bad luck mixed in there.
Edit - they were actively scoring as I was typing this (great reverse jinx!)
Edit - they were actively scoring as I was typing this (great reverse jinx!)
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Phillies win 4-3 but Castellanos has been awful with RISP. I can see them trying to get rid of him after this season. He ain’t it at all.
Anyone that predicted before the game that Sosa would be the offensive and defensive star of the game for the Phils should play the lottery.
My ideal lineup would be
1. stott
2. JT
3. Harp
4.rhys
5. Schwarb
6.Bohm
7. Castellanos
8. Jean
9. Marsh
Whatever they go with I’m excited to see how the team responds when harp gets back in there. Just takes so much pressure off everyone else
Fingers crossed the MRI comes back as only a bone bruise. Looked bad. Important player for Phils down the stretch.
As of right now, you're probably correct.
When Harper comes back, we are much more competitive with the elite teams.
Yeah, but I just wish there was a bit more clarity on when that will be. Realize there are good medical reasons for not knowing, of course, but man, the sooner the better!
Phillies lose 1-0 bottom of ninth on a walk and two singles. Sheesh. This team is schizophrenic.
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Hey guys, wouldn't the Phils be better off finishing in the 3rd wild card spot and face the NL Central champ, rather than having to play the Braves? Granted, with 4 teams bunched for 3 spots, can't worry about that now, just get in!
Assuming Harper is back and healthy and effective, I think they match up well with all potential opponents except the Mets. I don't think they can win the division, but potentially I could see them chasing down the Braves for the 4th seed and hosting the WC round vs. 5. That's the best case scenario to me, and then hopefully they can advance.
I suppose this weekend with 4 vs. NY will tell the tale. But I think they could beat anyone in the NL playoffs, as they hold the season series tiebreaker over LA, STL, Milwaukee and SD I believe. Conversely, the Phillies can also lose to everyone.
I think 2007 was instructive, as the Phils won their division and blew thru September only to run into the one team hotter than them, the Rockies.
I suppose this weekend with 4 vs. NY will tell the tale. But I think they could beat anyone in the NL playoffs, as they hold the season series tiebreaker over LA, STL, Milwaukee and SD I believe. Conversely, the Phillies can also lose to everyone.
I think 2007 was instructive, as the Phils won their division and blew thru September only to run into the one team hotter than them, the Rockies.
Everything always comes down to injuries. The pressure the Braves, and to a lesser extent the Phillies are putting on the Mets will take a toll coming down the stretch. The Dodger’s are so far ahead they’re on cruise control.
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The most encouraging developments of late have been Ranger, Stott, Bohm, and the pen. Ranger is starting to look more like the good Ranger and if they can put Ranger, Nola, and Wheeler into a best of 5, they can beat anyone. Stott and Bohm are hugely important going forward and they have stepped up to be two big pieces in their success. I am still grappling with who should close. I almost think that I prefer Robertson just because of his experience. Alvarado is huge, if he is good, they should be able to play six inning games with some confidence. A HUGE lift is coming when Harper comes back. I like the way this is shaping up.
He visited her in the hospital and they became friends. Richie Ashburn, a hell of a guy, up there with the greatest Phillies.
The Mets are reeling right now, first time they have really struggled this season. Alonso and Nimmo are lost at the plate. Phils miss Scherzer and deGrom this weekend. Mets also lost Carrasco who was to pitch Saturday and Walker had a back issue last start and is unlikely to go Sunday. Add onto that the Mets played a late one at Atlanta that went down to the wire and didn’t get into Philly until the wee hours of the morning while Philly had an off day. Phillies have Wheeler and Nola going in this series. If the Phillies ever had a golden opportunity to make up some ground on the Mets it is now. Anything less then 3 out of 4 would be a huge failure looking at the current landscape. Also the Braves are only up by 5 in the loss column and have a tough weekend with the red hot Astros. Time is now to make a little run at those 2 teams.
Phillies just have to concentrate on being healthy and maybe grab that top wild card spot, NL East is probably not in play regardless what happens this weekend. Mets have the easiest schedule in baseball from last week of August until the end of the season, it is ridiculous how easy it is. The Mets have fell apart before but with Showalter in charge I don’t think this team will fall apart.
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