2023 Eagles Thread

Grant Green

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My biggest issue is the Power Rankings part. He is likely referring to ESPN type power rankings that are merit based (W/L record, margin of victory, etc), but not predictive. I'll use a slightly different term "Power Ratings" that is used by sports bettors to make lines (predictive). This system doesn't care as much about the team's record since that is not necessarily a great way to predict winners (and more importantly, spread covers). Most sports bettors that I follow have SF at #1 and the Eagles somewhere around 3 to 5.

The DVOA metric is pretty solid as well, but I certainly wouldn't rely exclusively on it.

Oh, and the line is pretty much between 2.5 and 3, not 1.5. Huge difference between 1.5 and 3.
 
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Bkmtnittany1

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”Reich told the Observer that he wasn't done with coaching, but he added "this is probably the final chapter of my NFL journey."”

at this point, Dallas is irrelavant
Sluggo....explain that to me. If Philly loses this week at home, a definite possibility, then loses at Dallas next Sunday, another definite possibility, they are tied. Having a hard time figuring how Dallas is irrelevant, I can't stand them, but they are still in this thing IMO.
 

laKavosiey-st lion

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Sluggo....explain that to me. If Philly loses this week at home, a definite possibility, then loses at Dallas next Sunday, another definite possibility, they are tied. Having a hard time figuring how Dallas is irrelevant, I can't stand them, but they are still in this thing IMO.
Eagles end with Seattle, giants, cards, giants so they are almost guaranteed 14 wins.
 

laKavosiey-st lion

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If you told me eagles go 2-2 KC buff cowboys Seattle I’d be all in. Ya know what’s hard? Beating a div foe 3 times in one season. KC win was great. Losing to sf and Dallas then hosting them in the playoffs, I’m cool w that
 

Tom McAndrew

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My biggest issue is the Power Rankings part. He is likely referring to ESPN type power rankings that are merit based (W/L record, margin of victory, etc), but not predictive. I'll use a slightly different term "Power Ratings" that is used by sports bettors to make lines (predictive). This system doesn't care as much about the team's record since that is not necessarily a great way to predict winners (and more importantly, spread covers). Most sports bettors that I follow have SF at #1 and the Eagles somewhere around 3 to 5.

The DVOA metric is pretty solid as well, but I certainly wouldn't rely exclusively on it.

Oh, and the line is pretty much between 2.5 and 3, not 1.5. Huge difference between 1.5 and 3.

I will always defer to you and to @Erial_Lion with regards to betting. Especially since I have not, and never will, bet on a game.

The Birds are 7-2-2 against the spread this year. They didn't cover against the Jets and against the Commanders (1st game), and they tied the spread against the Vikings and against the Commanders (2nd game). They've only been a dog once this season, and that was against the Chiefs, where they won the game.

The extra rest for the Niners, the revenge factor from last year's NFC Championship game, and their impressive roster could all be reasons one would favor the Niners. And you've pointed out earlier in the thread some reasons why you would have the Niners favored. All that being said, the Birds are 10-1, and no matter the location (home or away), the injuries they suffer, the weather, or anything else one considers, they just keep finding a way to win. In that context, if I were a betting person (which I'm not), I would find it tough to bet against the Birds. (Trying to be as objective as I can be, while fully acknowledging I'm a diehard Eagles fan.)

It should be an interest game.
 
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s1uggo72

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I will always defer to you and to @Erial_Lion with regards to betting. Especially since I have not, and never will, bet on a game.

The Birds are 7-2-2 against the spread this year. They didn't cover against the Jets and against the Commanders (1st game), and they tied the spread against the Vikings and against the Commanders (2nd game). They've only been a dog once this season, and that was against the Chiefs, where they won the game.

The extra rest for the Niners, the revenge factor from last year's NFC Championship game, and their impressive roster could all be reasons one would favor the Niners. And you've pointed out earlier in the thread some reasons why you would have the Niners favored. All that being said, the Birds are 10-1, and no matter the location (home or away), the injuries they suffer, the weather, or anything else one considers, they just keep finding a way to win. In that context, if I were a betting person (which I'm not), I would find it tough to bet against the Birds. (Trying to be as objective as I can be, while fully acknowledging I'm a diehard Eagles fan.)

It should be an interest game.
Should be interesting. People forget the Eagles are 1st & 9 on a 55 yd field
 
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s1uggo72

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Sluggo....explain that to me. If Philly loses this week at home, a definite possibility, then loses at Dallas next Sunday, another definite possibility, they are tied. Having a hard time figuring how Dallas is irrelevant, I can't stand them, but they are still in this thing IMO.
1) Philly isn’t losing
2) they play SF this week not Dallas Only thing that matters
3) Dallas hasn’t beaten a winning team
4) Dallas hell part of the schedule is just starting
 

s1uggo72

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interesting


if he clears waivers, do the Eagles sign him? its not like they need a TE, especially one with experience.
(that said as a vested Vet I am not sure he has to clear waivers, but I dont recall, I think there's is something about , before/after trade dead line)
 

Tom McAndrew

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if he clears waivers, do the Eagles sign him? its not like they need a TE, especially one with experience.
(that said as a vested Vet I am not sure he has to clear waivers, but I dont recall, I think there's is something about , before/after trade dead line)

If he's claimed on waivers, then the team that signs him takes on his Cardinals' contract. He's owed about $4.4 million for the rest of this season, and a $7.96 million base in 2024. If/when he clears wavers, that all goes away, and he can sign for whatever he and a team agree to.

Dallas Goedert is still recovering from the fracture in his right forearm, and Grant Calcaterra has missed practice on Wed. and on Thurs. this week, so the Birds are thin at TE. Whether Ertz could provide immediate help at TE is a question, as he's been out since Week 7 due to a quad injury.

The Birds don't have a lot of cap room left, and they appear to want to address LB more so than TE. I suspect they'll have discussions with Ertz if he clears wavers. I'm somewhat doubtful they would sign him unless he's fully healthy, and they can get him at a nice discount for the remainder of the season.
 

s1uggo72

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If he's claimed on waivers, then the team that signs him takes on his Cardinals' contract. He's owed about $4.4 million for the rest of this season, and a $7.96 million base in 2024. If/when he clears wavers, that all goes away, and he can sign for whatever he and a team agree to.

Dallas Goedert is still recovering from the fracture in his right forearm, and Grant Calcaterra has missed practice on Wed. and on Thurs. this week, so the Birds are thin at TE. Whether Ertz could provide immediate help at TE is a question, as he's been out since Week 7 due to a quad injury.

The Birds don't have a lot of cap room left, and they appear to want to address LB more so than TE. I suspect they'll have discussions with Ertz if he clears wavers. I'm somewhat doubtful they would sign him unless he's fully healthy, and they can get him at a nice discount for the remainder of the season.
well seeing how, AZ owes him his 2023 salary, I would hope they could get him at a discount.
 

Grant Green

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I will always defer to you and to @Erial_Lion with regards to betting. Especially since I have not, and never will, bet on a game.

The Birds are 7-2-2 against the spread this year. They didn't cover against the Jets and against the Commanders (1st game), and they tied the spread against the Vikings and against the Commanders (2nd game). They've only been a dog once this season, and that was against the Chiefs, where they won the game.

The extra rest for the Niners, the revenge factor from last year's NFC Championship game, and their impressive roster could all be reasons one would favor the Niners. And you've pointed out earlier in the thread some reasons why you would have the Niners favored. All that being said, the Birds are 10-1, and no matter the location (home or away), the injuries they suffer, the weather, or anything else one considers, they just keep finding a way to win. In that context, if I were a betting person (which I'm not), I would find it tough to bet against the Birds. (Trying to be as objective as I can be, while fully acknowledging I'm a diehard Eagles fan.)

It should be an interest game.
@WestSideLion
This line is now a solid 3. I agree that the number is too high. That said, it's not just public money driving this move. Must be respected bettors. I teased the eagles up to 8.5 and I'm not feeling great about it. I'll hope for the best but I expect some regression for our Birds.
 
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